Thread by @TSaukur

Trump knows how to use Pakistan as a pawn to keep India in check,
now hyping “massive oil reserves” there. Fact or fantasy?

While slapping tariffs on India and cozying up to Islamabad, he’s taking a risky gamble that could backfire on the US 🧵
@InsightGL @ShashiTharoor

1️⃣ Trump eyes Pakistan’s resources- Washington is now looking past the old playbook, toward Pakistan’s vast, untapped mineral wealth, critical for clean energy and defense supply chains.
In April 2025, Meyer led a high-level US delegation to Pakistan to explore new avenues of

cooperation in the mineral sector & met Asim Munir. Their discussions centered on mineral development. The visit signified Washington’s evolving priorities in securing reliable access to critical minerals essential for future technologies, these are situated in Balochistan.

For the 🇺🇸 mineral cooperation with 🇵🇰 is not just economic it’s geostrategic.
China currently dominates global supply chains for critical minerals. It controls roughly 69% of rare earth mining and 44% of copper smelting, making it an unrivaled heavyweight in mineral processing.

In response, the US has been forging global deals to diversify and secure access to these essential inputs. From Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo to Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Peru, and beyond, Washington is drawing new lines on the mineral map.

2️⃣ Does Pakistan have massive oil reserves?
Just hrs after slapping India with 25% tariffs, Trump announced a new energy deal with Pak aimed at developing pakistan's oil reserves.

Despite Trump's heavy claims- according to the US Energy information Administration, Pakistan had

353.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of 2016, placing it 52nd globally accounting for 0.021% of the world's total reserves. These reserves could cover less than 2 yrs of domestic demand without imports or new discoveries.
Daily oil production in Pakistan is around

88,000 barrels, far below national consumption forcing the country to import about 85% of its oil. Basically, Pakistan is Not currently sitting on confirmed "massive" oil reserves. Trump's claims maybe based on recent geological survey in pak's offshore indus basin, pointing to

Hydrocarbon formation. These claims lack evidence. No commercial drilling has been confirmed. Experts warn these are not reserves & lack commercial viability.
The US entry into Pakistan for minerals, Oils will worry China as it has made huge investments in the region.

3️⃣ Why 25% tariffs on India-
Initially Trump imposed higher tariffs on Pakistan, Bangladesh but today hes concluded deals with both & reduced their tariffs to 18-19% keeping India at 25%. The simple reason is, hes unhappy with India's continued buying of Russian oil, weapons.

This has led to slight deterioration between India-US ties. Tariffs on India are more to do with the Russian issues. Trump's stance on the war has changed where he initially sided with Putin, scolded Zelensky. But in between there were several phone calls between Trump & Putin

which didnt go well & the war again intensified which made Trump unhappy, taking these stricter actions against nations who deal with 🇷🇺

4️⃣ Trump's moves may backfire from all sides:
On Political side, With tariffs on India, additional penalties- India would be less willing to

work with the US to stand up to China & Russia. Infact, Trump's moves will push for the revival of Russia-India-China axis (RIC). Comments by Moscow and Beijing welcoming the revival the Russia-India-China bloc known as RIC could at the very least pose a symbolic challenge to the

US. It could also dilute India's membership of the QUAD group alongside the United States, Japan and Australia. Analysts said the U.S. approach could backfire. "The US is pushing India & China to deepen normalisation, giving India strong reason to seriously consider revitalising

the RIC said @sanahashmi1 Jaishankar has also praised the improving relations between 🇮🇳🇨🇳. @ShashiTharoor also said that "If we can't compete in America, we may have to diversify our markets outside of America. We are not out of options. If America is completely unreasonable

with its demands, we have to move elsewhere." India is signing FTAs with UK, EU to diversify its markets.

On Economic front, The tariffs won't impact India much, rather it will hit the Americans, since the American consumers will be paying for the increased costs. When Tariffs

Come into effect, prices of imports rise, American consumers will be hit with significant price increases.
This will also hit Trump’s popularity. India has much more access to the American markets, than the other way round making the goods cost effective in the US.

On Pakistan

Front, tho US is making inroads in Pakistan to secure access to resources, but some analysts believe US doesn't have much bigger plans for Pakistan, rather they are using it as a tool to keep India in check. If American companies start exploration in the region of Balochistan,

Security remains the crucial factor with concerns. Persistent instability, local grievances, and insurgent activity have deterred serious long-term investment.
Water crisis- Another looming challenge is water. Pakistan is among the most water-stressed nations in the world and

mining especially for critical minerals requires enormous water inputs.
The US entry in Pakistan's oil exploration could also unsettle China which has made huge investments in the region including CPEC, BRI. If US-Pak partnership moves forward in the region, it could cause

Geopolitical frictions with Beijing.
President Trump's declaration of a joint oil initiative with Pakistan has drawn attention to a country not typically prominent in global energy discussions. However, there's a significant gap between initial promises & actual oil production.

Without results from exploratory drilling to validate the volume and quality of these reserves, Pakistan’s oil prospects remain uncertain. At this stage, the Trump-Pakistan oil collaboration seems more about geopolitical maneuvering than confirmed energy potential.

The world is seeing a US under a rather unpredictable President, erratic says Charles A Kupchan, Sr fellow at Council of Foreign Relations. Many people around him in White House, the common men are not happy with his tariff decisions since its not a good idea, wont help American

workers, American economy. Hes not listening.

Trump has to seriously consider his moves to calm down the issues. One can't Trust Trump. Today if hes talking good with Pakistan then tomorrow he can make their lives miserable.
Hoping for a quick India-US trade deal.

Sources- Charles A Kupchan interview, Economic Times, Newsweek, The Eurasian Times.