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More from @samuraipips358

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 31

Most of a trade is already done with pre-preparation🧵

Whether the chart goes up or down, it doesn't matter to me either way.
No matter what happens, the actions are already prepared, and those actions have an edge.
🧵1/5

2/5
In trading, pre-preparation is extremely important.
Pre-preparation includes testing or practicing the strategy in various ways, but the pre-preparation I'm talking about here is building scenarios in advance.

Some people might know this because I always write scenarios on my blog on Sundays, but I create scenarios in advance like "If this happens next, I'll do this."
Just because I write them on the blog on Sundays doesn't mean I only build scenarios on Sundays.
Every day as the chart updates, I update the scenarios like "If this happens next, I'll do this."

By building scenarios in advance, it becomes clear what you're waiting for, making it easier to calmly take the necessary actions when the time comes.
This eliminates hesitation, reluctance, and regret, allowing you to repeatedly execute high-quality trades.

3/5
Since I build scenarios in advance, it doesn't matter at all how the chart moves.
Whether it goes up or down, either is fine.

If a buying opportunity comes, I'll buy; if a selling opportunity comes, I'll sell—that's all there is to it.
Even after holding a position, whether it goes up or down, it doesn't matter.

Of course, if I've entered a long position, going up would be profitable, but whether it goes down or up, either is fine.
Even after entry, there are scenarios like "If this happens, I'll do this," and as long as I execute according to them, whether it ends in a stop-loss or not, it functions as an appropriate cost, so there's no problem at all.

That's because I fully understand and believe that by repeatedly taking those exact actions, profits will ultimately remain.
I don't think about the result of a single trade.
I understand that repeatedly taking those actions is my sole responsibility and job.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 30

Don't think about how to win; think about how to retain profits.🧵

Trading is a game of making a structure work by figuring out how repeating the same actions leads to retained profits, and then actually continuing to act consistently in that manner.
🧵1/5

2/5
Many people tend to think, "How can I win?".
But what's important isn't the outcome of a single trade, but how you can retain profits through consistent action.

If you only seek wins, even if you win 9 out of 10 times, it's meaningless if a single loss wipes out more than all the profits you've made.
In this scenario, you're winning 9 out of 10 times, yet your account is negative.

Conversely, if you only win 4 out of 10 times but your account grows steadily, that's a wonderful thing.

The outcome of a single trade is not important.
Trading profits are generated over multiple trades through a balance of win rate and risk-reward.

3/5
What's important is how you can create a structure that ultimately retains profits through the wins and losses that occur while you continuously follow a consistent set of rules.
And then, all you have to do is make that structure work through your own consistent actions.

For example, my strategy is buying dips and selling rallies on the 4-hour chart, but I never worry about things like, "What if opportunities to buy the dip on the 4-hour chart disappear in the future?".
That's because, given the structure of the market, it's impossible for them to disappear.

I understand how to identify 4-hour dip buys and rally sells on a lower timeframe and how to act to make the balance of win rate and risk-reward work in my favor, and I have refined these insights into rules.
Since I can enter with a stop-loss defined on a lower timeframe and trade at points where the move extends to the higher timeframe after entry, the win rate and risk-reward become favorable to me.
Then, as long as I can continue to repeat the same actions under that consistent set of rules, the market structure itself will provide me with favorable asymmetric bets.

I understand this deeply from both knowledge and experience, so I can continue to repeat the same actions without being swayed by immediate results, even during a losing streak.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 29

Wait and click. The reason you can't take this simple action is always you 🧵

Simply being able to consistently repeat this simple act makes you an excellent trader, and you will surely succeed.
🧵1/5

2/5
Do you have a trade plan, a scenario?

Without a trade plan, you can't even "wait".
You can wait because "what you are waiting for" is clear.

Instead of just opening a chart and buying or selling on a whim, it's important to create a scenario from each chart based on your plan and act according to that "if this happens, I do that" scenario.

By the way, a plan and a scenario are almost the same thing, but they are subtly different.
A plan is your overall action plan or set of rules, while a scenario is the "execution procedure under specific circumstances," your "if this happens, then I do that."
For example, in my case, a plan is something like, "buy on a pullback in the higher time frame, entering at the point where the lower time frame makes a higher high and a higher low."
Scenario building is then thinking about the "if this happens, then I do that" on the actual current chart based on that plan.

I always read the current chart to identify where and what kinds of risks exist and where and what kinds of orders are concentrated, and I create scenarios in advance accordingly.
The scenarios differ depending on the chart, but they are always based on the same plan.
(If this is hard to visualize, please feel free to read my blog.)

Of course, these plans must be profitable when repeated over time, and you must trust the long-term results that your rules produce.

Have you built trust in that strategy?
Are you thoroughly prepared in advance?
Aren't you just acting on a whim?

3/5
Obey without question.

When an entry signal appears, you must obey it and enter, and if the signal has not yet appeared (even if you think it's about to), you must not rush to enter.
When it comes to following the rules, your opinion gets in the way.
Even if you think, "it might go down," you have to buy when you need to buy.
Just follow it without question.

Your last loss is irrelevant, and so are the opinions other traders are expressing.
The reason you can't consistently follow your rules lies only within you.

It is precisely by repeating consistently that a large sample size is built under the same conditions, allowing the law of large numbers to work and your edge to emerge.
You are not trading for the result of the single trade in front of you.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 26

What the chart does after you close a position according to your rules is irrelevant to you.🧵

・The price rallied further after you took profit.
・The price moved in your intended direction after you cut your loss.
So what?
🧵1/5

2/5
I understand the frustration of "the price rallying further after taking profit" or "the price moving in my intended direction after cutting my loss," but your trading will fall apart if you start thinking about this.

Let's remember your job as a trader again.
Your job is to repeatedly execute trades according to your rules and extract your edge through the law of large numbers from a large sample size built solely on those rule-based trades.

If your strategy and rules have an edge, all you have to do is keep repeating them.
All chart movements outside of those rules are irrelevant to you.

Don't try to capture every move.

3/5
It's impossible to catch every price move.

This time the price may have rallied further after you took profit, but there are other times when it doesn't.
If you start getting swayed by results influenced by such one-off random events, you will develop an increasingly short-term perspective and lose your ability to trade consistently.

Above all, thinking in terms of wins, losses, or hindsight is proof that you have absolutely no understanding of probabilistic thinking.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 23

To you who finds stop-losses painful🧵

When you take a loss, do you think "I made a mistake"?
With every stop-loss, do you regret it, thinking "I did it again..."?

But that very way of thinking is the biggest enemy that destroys your consistency.
🧵1/5

2/5
First, what I want you to know is──
that a loss is not "evil".

If it is a loss you took based on a system with an edge and according to the rules, then that is a "correct stop-loss".
Rather, the structure of an edge is that profits ultimately remain "precisely because you have that stop-loss".

Conversely, even if you endure without a stop-loss and end up being saved, that is an "incorrect success experience".
It may feel good in the moment, but it will destroy your future consistency and your account.

3/5
Many people think of a loss as a "failure" and believe they must learn something from it.

But that's wrong.

What you should learn from is "only when you have broken a rule".

If you executed a stop-loss according to the rules and lost, that is the "right answer".
There is not a single thing that needs to be changed.

The problem is,
・thinking "Maybe this stop-loss wasn't necessary..." and altering the rules,
・changing the conditions according to the outcome and pushing the stop-loss further away,
・making "avoiding a loss" your righteous cause

That is how you destroy "the very structure of the system".

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Jul 22

Do not create "a special trade"🧵

If you think, "This trade is special," you will feel the next one is special as well.
This is because the only thing that ever exists for you is the special moment called "now."
🧵1/5

2/5
To trade with probabilistic thinking means to always trade consistently under the same conditions.

Probability works when you have built a large sample size by repeatedly making consistent trades under the same conditions.
You must not include "a special one" in that sample size.

If you do "something special" for the trade you are making now, you will likely start doing that same action for "every trade" in the future.
Your rules will become a mere formality, reproducibility will be lost, and probability will cease to function.

3/5
For us, the only thing that ever exists is always "the here and now."
The past and future certainly exist in our minds, but what we are experiencing is always "the here and now."

Even if you break a rule or take a special action and think, "This trade is special. I'll go back to my normal trading from the next one," at that point "the next trade" is a future event in your head, but that moment will come as "the present," just like this special trade has.

If you can vow to follow the rules from the next trade, you should just do it "from now."
If you cannot do that, it means you will not be able to do it next time either.

It is like saying every day, "I will start my diet tomorrow."

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