Thread by @Antiochus191

1/13 After the fall of Chasiv Yar, the fall of Toretsk is confirmed. These battles have been raging since April and June last year. A few words about them and their combined impact on the front. #Ukraine🧵

2/13 Battle of Chasiv Yar: Located on a 40-50m hillock - last natural stronghold before the plain towards Konstiantinivka. The Ukrainians had filled it with artillery positions.

3/13 Battle of Toretsk: Dense urban fabric + underground coal mine tunnels allowed Ukraine to hold out for months, but Russian shelling gradually destroyed the upper levels.

4/13 How they work in combination on the front:
Geography: Russia is now in reach of the cities of Konstiantinovka - Kramatorsk straight ahead.

5/13 Battle of Konstiantinivka loading...
The two drops open a 25-30 km wide corridor to Konstiantinivka. The Russians will attempt to surround the city.

6/13 Moral and propaganda: First time since Feb. 2024 (Avdiivka) that two well-fortified Ukrainian cities fall almost simultaneously. Moscow talks about "breaking second line of defense", while Kiev tries to downplay them as "pyrrhic victories".

7/13 What is changing operationally: Constant pressure on Konstantinovka. The distance from the city is ≈ 5-7 km. The suburbs are already under daily pressure. If that drops too, the AFR are at the gates of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk.

8/13 Shifting of Ukrainian reserves: To hold the new line, Kiev will have to pull forces from Kharkiv/Zaporizhia → so other fronts are thinning.
Russian advance rate: are the AFR in a position to keep up the pressure until the first rains in late September?

9/13 What is the overall situation: Russia now has the high ground, daily flow of 152mm shells and drones, ~8 week dry weather margin and 30-60 thousand reserves.

10/13 Ukraine has at its disposal Patriot/IRIS-T to limit Russian glide-bombs. The new Western 155 mm shells package will help if it arrives in time. However there are limited reserves of manpower.

11/13 Conclusion:
On a tactical level, the defensive line in the central Donbass is shortened from three fortresses (Chashiv Yar, Konstiantinivka, Toretsk) to one (Konstiantinivka).

12/13 Strategically - Russia is given a single beachhead to threaten the industrial heart of Ukraine at Sloviansk-Kramatorsk.

13/13 Russia does not win the war, but it improves its position considerably before the autumn mudslides and before the new Western air defence systems are fully activated.

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