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https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1949877681027166608

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Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Aug 2

1/12 In this post we will show that the Yield control started in 2010, that yield curve control IS NOT SMALL and increasing.

2/12 I am old enough to remember having a cup of coffee for well under 1 USD before going to trade risk arbitrage situations.

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1853941147976028456

3/12 The Yield curve control started in 2010. A similar purchase of Exchequer bills by the BoE was done in 1823 and similarly people watching the low yield pondered
"WHAT IF?"
We are in deflation?
To which Thomas Tooke explained...

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1853941147976028456

Read 12 tweets

Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Jul 27

1/4 How the statistical US agencies are openly taking the bondholders for MORONS.

To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect approximately 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there are several hundred field collectors active across 75 urban areas.

When data is not available, BLS staff typically develop estimates for approximately 10% of the cells in the CPI calculation. However, the share of data in the CPI that is estimated has increased significantly in recent months and is now above 30%, see chart above.

In other words, almost a third of the prices going into the CPI at the moment are guesses based on other data collections in the CPI." - Torsten Slok - Apollo

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1927366120895402297

2/4 How we suspected it first and then pretty much KNEW it?
Sir Robert Giffen inferior goods substitution.
It is completely improbable that consumers shift to inferior goods if their real income is increasing.

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1927366120895402297

3/4
And confirmed in the last few quarters by the behavior at COSCO on cuts in dining out AND shift to lower quality meat cuts in all cohorts of consumers.

Read 4 tweets

Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Jul 25

1/17 PART 3
LONG THE ARISTOCRACY, SHORT THE PEASANTS

The Necker Parallels
REGRESSIVE TAXATIONS AND THE VASTER PROBLEM THEY REVEAL:
INABILITY TO TAX THE “AMERICASTOCRACY”

2/17 Rémy Cointreau had been disclosed as a trade (to paying clients ONLY) back in the low-mid 40 EUR range.
Rémy Cointreau sells the very exclusive $2,500-a-bottle Louis XIII Cognac, each bottled in Baccarat crystal and with a unique number.

3/17 The aristocracy makes MORE money with inflation and through exemption from taxes on inheritance and carried interests for hedge funds. In other words, they can absorb price increases.

Read 17 tweets

Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Jul 23

1/21
- PART 2
REGRESSIVE TAXATIONS AND THE VASTER PROBLEM THEY REVEAL:
INABILITY TO TAX THE “AMERICASTOCRACY”

Going into the details of the regressive nature of tariffs.

2/21 But judging by the deficit, the carried interests and estate tax exemption, a more nefarious one is at hand.
Since the Foreigners are balking at UST, some one has to pay for the Pork.
Who? The Plebs via tariffs.

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1902106064738505056

3/21 KALECKI EQUATION:
IT’S SIMPLE: GOV SPENDING => CORPORATE PROFITS

In the Kalecki Equation Government spending does in fact increase Corporate profits.

So Fx as reserves is a fantastic way to boost corporate profits via pork.

https://x.com/GraphCall/status/1902106064738505056

Read 21 tweets

Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Jul 22

1/15 REGRESSIVE TAXATION AND THE VASTER PROBLEM THEY REVEAL:
INABILITY TO TAX THE “AMERICASTOCRACY”
- PART 1
Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart , in the book This Time is Different 👇

2/15 In their book Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (and gov debt defaults, repudiation and inflate away), the authors explain the problem of taxation.

3/15 In the chapter on defaults on domestic debt, the authors note that in many historical episodes, governments found it politically easier to default or inflate away their debt than to raise taxes—especially on the wealthy.

Read 15 tweets

Geoffrey Fouvry

@GraphCall

Jul 17

1/ Fintech bros running with the cash register

So in this long post, we are going to divide it into five parts.

I) First, we show that real incomes are not growing, despite what official statistics suggest. We focus on dining out and the substitution to inferior goods. At the very least, this substitution is inconsistent with an increase in real income. It’s a topic we’ve discussed several times, so if you're already familiar with that, feel free to skip to Part II.

II) In Part II, we show that PNC, WFC, and USB are all on the back foot with consumer lending, reducing their exposure. USB is even outright selling portfolios, benefiting from reverse provisioning.

III) In Part III, we explain that PNC, WFC, and USB—by retrenching or selling—are effectively “selling high” because spreads are at record low levels. It’s smart: sell high, buy low. I AM NOT painting a disaster for the banks simply highlighting that those banks are COMPLETELY shunning more consumer lending.

IV) But who is buying high—meaning, buying with tight credit spreads? Well, personal loan growth has far outpaced income growth, and that is not sustainable. If you’re a bank that knows what it’s doing, then you don’t keep lending more.

V) But some entities are booking those loans or securitizing them at record-tight spreads. They are the “buy high” crowd—with the same mindset as the “buy high” crowd from 2005–2007. They’re probably just playing the music while running with the cash register. In the cash register part, we show insider selling by the people providing the unsustainable loans that the banks don’t want.

2/ CONSUMER BEHAVIOR INCONSISTENT WITH HIGHER REAL INCOME

This is the cohort of shoppers at Costco:

Costco Shoppers by Income Cohort

According to 2024 Numerator data, Costco consumer income distribution is:
~46% of members earn between $40,000 and $125,000 (middle income)
~36% earn over $125,000 (high income)

The remaining ~18% earn under $40,000 (low income)
Source: marketingscoop.com/consumer/costc…

So nearly half the customers fall in the middle-income range, with over one-third coming from higher-income households.

This is what is happening in consumer behavior at Costco, as related by the CFO of Costco:

Shift Toward Food-at-Home

This is what was happening in Q1 FY2025 (reported in November 2024):

In a December 2024 call, CFO Gary Millerchip noted shoppers are avoiding dining out and leaning on Costco for groceries instead. Sales of meat and produce are up, with increased purchases of lower-priced cuts like chicken, beef, and pork.

Sources:
finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-fl…

the-cfo.io/2025/03/31/cos…

“This was led by double-digit growth in meat, where we continue to see a shift toward lower-cost proteins such as ground beef and poultry,” he said.
In other words, even Costco’s more affluent customers are trading down.

What happened at Costco in the next quarter:

CFO Gary Millerchip highlighted that shoppers across income levels continue “tightening belts,” opting for lower-cost proteins like ground beef, poultry, and private-label items.

Sources: MarketWatch, The CFO, FinancialContent
Even Higher-Income Members Are Choosing Value

During the Q2 FY2025 call, Millerchip pointed out that not just budget-conscious but also higher-income members are seeking bargains.

There were strong gains in big-ticket items, but also double-digit growth in meat and poultry—specifically lower-cost proteins.

Source: businessinsider.com/costco-says-sh…

3/ Fiscal Q3 FY2025: Costco Introduces Buy Now, Pay Later

Costco has already reported Fiscal Q3 FY2025 (12 weeks ending May 11, 2025), released in late May. Here's what they said about consumer behavior during that period:

Consumer Behavior in Fiscal Q3 FY2025
Foot traffic and ticket sizes remained healthy, with the value-driven behavior seen in earlier quarters continuing.

Continued Shift Toward Essentials: Fresh categories saw high single- to double-digit growth, led by meat and produce (Investing.com).

Management reiterated the strategy of maintaining low prices on key staples—like eggs, butter, and olive oil—even amid cost pressures. Source:
progressivegrocer.com/costco-execs-w…

This indicates consumers are still prioritizing food-at-home and value staples, consistent with previous trends.

Costco introduced a Buy Now, Pay Later option with Affirm for big-ticket items, highlighting how consumers are managing tighter budgets (Progressive Grocer).

SUMMARY:

Staples Spending High growth in fresh; emphasis on low-price staples

Discount & Value Continued price discipline, private-label focus

Financial Adjustments BNPL adoption reflects consumer budget management

Shoppers are still favoring essentials and seeking affordability—even while membership growth and store visits remain robust. The addition of BNPL suggests a growing need for payment flexibility.

THE SHIFT TO INFERIOR GOODS IS NOT LIMITED TO COSTCO

NielsenIQ reports that 50% of global shoppers are buying more private-label goods than ever, spurred by inflation and value hunting:

marketwatch.com/story/higher-i…

In the U.S., private-label grocery share has risen from ~17% in 2014 to 19% in 2023, with projections to reach 30% by 2033—especially as discount chains like Aldi and Lidl expand (Rabobank).

According to Ipsos, 74% of U.S. consumers now consider private-label products as good as name brands—even among higher-income and younger groups. Source: Ipsos

CONCLUSION:
There is a shift toward dining at home and lower-priced cuts of meat.

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