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Aug 4, 2025 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A $30B shipping war is erupting on the sidelines of Tariff war.

The U.S. slapped millions in port fees on Chinese ships.

From the Chola Empire to the British Raj, sea trade was India's strength.

But post-independence, we turned inland. Cargo piled at ports. Broken roads led to ports. Ships took 4+ days to turn around.

Result? Over 95% of our trade moved through ports, but logistics cost ballooned to 14% of GDP — almost double the global average.

That’s when a bold plan was launched — and India began building its sea legacy again. Quietly. Relentlessly.

A thread on the rise no one saw coming👇Image
Image
2/ In 2015, India launched the ₹5.8 lakh crore Sagarmala Programme — the largest maritime modernization mission in our history.

The goal? Make our ports faster, cheaper, cleaner, and better connected.

839 infrastructure projects

272 road & rail link upgrades

14 coastal economic zones

Promotion of inland & coastal shipping

All aimed at moving from a truck-dominated economy to a water-first logistics ecosystem.

Because water is not just cheaper — it’s strategic. And in today’s global conflicts, it’s everything.Image
3/
Shipping is Almost half in cost, 5 times more fuel-efficient, and 10 times less polluting than road transport.

Yet in 2015, India moved only 6% of its freight by water.
Compare that to China (~15%), the EU (~40%), or the US (~20%).

Why the gap?

Because we didn’t invest in coastal logistics.

No port-rail-road synergy. No coastal manufacturing hubs.

That’s what Sagarmala is fixing.

And now the numbers are showing: freight share by water is rising fast, and logistics cost is down from 14% to ~11% in just 9 years.Image
4/
Let’s talk port speed. A decade ago, Indian ships waited 4–5 days in port. In global trade, that’s a deal killer.

Today? The average turnaround time at major Indian ports is <0.94 days — faster than the US (1.5d), Australia (1.7d), and on par with Singapore.

✅ Container dwell time reduced

✅ Port digitization boosted

✅ Logistics parks integrated

This is no accident. This is decade-long groundwork meeting data-driven execution.
And now, India’s ports are not just efficient — they’re globally competitive.Image
5/
Globally, advanced economies spend 6–8% of GDP on logistics. India spent 14% in 2015.

That meant higher export costs, expensive raw materials, and uncompetitive MSMEs.

Through Sagarmala + PM Gati Shakti + National Logistics Policy, India’s target is 8% logistics cost by 2030.

Why does this matter?

Because every 1% saved = ₹2 lakh crore of economic value.

Lower logistics cost = more exports = more jobs = stronger rupee = global power status.

The seas are now the bridge, not the barrier.Image
6/
While India was building its port infrastructure, the world entered a shipping war.

The US has begun imposing steep fees on Chinese vessels — up to $3.5 million per docking — to break China's $30 billion shipping empire.

Hundreds of Chinese-built, Chinese-flagged ships now face sanctions, trade barriers, and rerouting.

Meanwhile, India’s ports are becoming the next alternative hubs.
✅ Cleaner compliance
✅ Strategic location in the Indo-Pacific
✅ Faster turnaround & lower costs
India is rising — not through confrontation, but quiet capacity.Image
7/
Amid US-China shipping tensions, Indian ports are emerging as a key neutral trade hub.

Colombo, Singapore, and Hong Kong are under pressure.

India is offering Mundra, JNPA, Vizag, and the upcoming Galathea Bay port in Great Nicobar as world-class transshipment alternatives.

It’s not just about containers.

It’s about controlling the trade routes of the future — and India's strategic geography is finally being used to full potential.

As the world reroutes, India reaps the rewards.
8/
What’s powering this port revolution? Public + Private Partnership.

Out of ₹5.8 lakh crore Sagarmala investments, ₹2.42 lakh crore is private capital.

Firms like Adani Ports, DP World, JSW Infra, Essar are racing to modernize terminals, build logistics parks, and digitize cargo flows.

India is not nationalizing ports — it is decentralizing efficiency.

This hybrid model is what lets infrastructure scale while maintaining speed and accountability.Image
9/
Beyond trade, India’s ports are becoming a military and strategic backbone.

✅ Navy bases being developed in Karwar, Lakshadweep, Andaman

✅ Strategic alliances at Chabahar (Iran), Duqm (Oman), Sabang (Indonesia)

✅ Shipbuilding revival via subsidies & dry docks
China has a "String of Pearls".

India is building a Diamond Necklace—with naval logistics strength that can match strategic pressure with presence.

The future of war and peace lies in maritime control. India is preparing for both.
10/
Remember this: the sea was India’s strength long before the internet.
The Chola dynasty ruled parts of Southeast Asia via ocean trade.

The British built Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai as maritime empires.

Post-independence, we ignored the seas — and paid in logistics cost, export stagnation, and regional irrelevance.

Sagarmala is not a project.

It’s a civilizational correction.

A return to the ocean where Bharat once ruled. And soon will again.
11/
The world today is fighting on ships — not just tanks.

While the US sanctions Chinese vessels and Chinese ships reroute, India is calmly filling the vacuum with speed, depth, and scale.

Every port is faster.

Every port is cleaner.

Every port is digitally linked.

This isn’t a story for the future.
This is India’s silent sea rise — decade in the making, finally breaking surface.

And this time, we won't stop at the shore.
12/
Are superpowers noticing too?

Yes, two ships sank near Kerala within weeks of Vinzingham deep water port inauguration.

MSC ELSA 3 and MV Wan Hai 503

It is a potential sabotage to disturb operations at both the port and dump garbage at sea bed which will prevent heavy ships to enter the port.

So...Image
India’s coastal renaissance is no longer a policy plan. It’s a national transformation:

From 14% to 8% logistics cost

From 6% to 15% water freight

From port chaos to transshipment hubs

From ignored coastline to strategic command of the Indo-Pacific

India isn’t just fixing its ports — it’s preparing to dominate global trade flows.

As the West fights tariff wars and China builds debt ports, India is building speed, self-reliance, and sovereignty.

The ocean is calling.

Bharat is ready.Image

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More from @deepdownanlyz

Dec 16, 2025
Tariffs were supposed to kill India’s exports.

The economy was declared “dead”.

Trump raised duties.

Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:

After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.

India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.

Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.

Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.

Thread. 👇Image
Image
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.

India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.

Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%

This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.

The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.

India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.

India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.

Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.Image
Image
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS

India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.

Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.

That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.

It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.

DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.

Air India crash was the starting point.

It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.

Read this till the end.Image
Turkish connection:

IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.

Turkish airline is the major partner.

The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.

This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.

Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.

Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.

Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...Image
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.

Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.

After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.

It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.

Now comes the second twist in the tail.

Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.

It is again just a front to do the execution.

Remember....Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Something is not adding up.

Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.

ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.

Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.

What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?Image
Image
The timing is too sharp to ignore because:
1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu
2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December.
3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India
4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive

In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.

At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.

Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.Image
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.

At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.

There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2025
Alarm bells at Delhi Airport.🚨

Something unusual happening since last few days.

400 flights were ground for 2 hours.

Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?

In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.

This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...Image
Image
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.

Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.

The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.

WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.

Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.

We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.

Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?

To eliminate TTP chief?

Absolutely NOT.

Then?

There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.

This conflict can go longer than what it seems.

Read this thread till the end.Image
Image
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.

Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.

The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.

By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.

The Afghan front ....Image
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.

There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.

The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.

In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 12, 2025
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.

Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.

Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.

Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇Image
Image
Pakistan is breaking from within.

Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.

Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.

The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.

Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.Image
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.

Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.

Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.

That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.

From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.Image
Read 16 tweets

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