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Aug 4 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
5 Must-Read Papers for Quality Investors

It's crucial to concentrate on the foundational drivers and filter out superficial market noise

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1️⃣ Balancing ROIC and Growth to Create Value (Tim Koller, McKinsey)

Through an examination of long-term patterns of growth and ROIC in large publicly listed US companies from 1965 to 1995, the study concludes that ROIC tends to remain stable over time, whereas growth is often fleeting and declines.
2️⃣ Return on Invested Capital - How to Calculate ROIC and Handle Common Issues (Michael Mauboussin) @mjmauboussin

This paper from Morgan Stanley Investment Management provides a comprehensive guide to understanding, calculating, and effectively utilizing Return on Invested Capital as a financial metric for assessing value creation in companies.
3️⃣ The Volatility Effect (Pim van Vliet and David Blitz)

Robeco’s Pim van Vliet has long challenged the efficient market hypothesis by demonstrating that a simple investment strategy based on historical return volatility can generate superior risk-adjusted returns.Image
4️⃣ Measuring the Moat (Michael Mauboussin)

Another great report from Mauboussin on how to reflect on competitive advantages, assessing a company’s strategic priorities depending on where it currently is in the corporate lifecycle.

The paper integrates various analytical tools, starting with industry-level analysis, including mapping the industry, understanding profit pools, assessing market share instability and concentration, and classifying industry structures.
5️⃣ The Quality Dimension of Value Investing (Robert Novy-Marx)

This paper, published in 2013, argues for a more nuanced approach to value investing that incorporates a firm's quality alongside traditional price-based valuation metrics. Novy-Marx asserts that value investing, as originally conceived by Benjamin Graham, was as much about buying high-quality firms as it was about buying cheap ones.
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More from @CompTortoise

Jul 22
Key Lessons from Chuck Akre and Our Personal Insights

Akre's investment philosophy centers on identifying businesses with high potential for compounding returns over long periods, underpinned by his renowned "three-legged stool" framework.

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Exceptional Business Models

Akre looks for companies with high returns on equity or capital, driven by a sustainable competitive advantage. This allows businesses to thrive in various economic environments.
Talented and Honest Management

He emphasizes the importance of management teams that are not only skilled but also align with shareholder interests, reinvesting profits wisely rather than prioritizing short-term goals.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 20
Finding excellent capital allocators - what qualities separate elite performers from the average?

🧵on 5 criteria & McKinsey insights Image
1️⃣ Excess Cash - Now What?

Kicking at an open door: high return companies will eventually become flush with cash as exceptional growth isn’t sustainable. By exceptional, we mean 20-30% or more and with growth being funded internally. You could imagine a case where frequent equity raises allow you to grow strongly (with total growth exceeding the ROIIC), just as long as shareholders are willing to fund your growth strategy.

It's not inherently a negative sign if a company, particularly one with a high return on capital and moderate growth (e.g., mid-single digits), generates significant cash flow beyond its operational needs. In such scenarios, if the core business doesn't offer enough opportunities for substantially faster growth, pursuing unrelated ventures often leads to poor outcomes.
2️⃣ You Need Some Centralization & Backing the Right People

The CEO, often in conjunction with the CFO and other top executives, possesses the enterprise-wide perspective necessary to strategically move resources across different divisions and ensure long-term growth investments.

A concrete example would be Constellation Software. While it’s all into decentralization, you simply can’t sit back and let lower-level managers make all capital allocation decisions without questioning these. $CSU

Ideally, management teams should be rewarding individuals who proactively kill projectsthat aren't working out, even if they've already invested time and resources. This encourages faster failure, resource reallocation, and fosters a culture of learning from noble failures.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 5
Free deep dive on our largest position

We thought it would be a good idea to release one of our previous deep dives to the public so you can get a sense of the type of content we offer at The Compounding Tortoise S-Stack.

So, we've just removed the paywall behind the September 2024 deep dive on Harvia $HARVIA, listed in Helsinki

The "Healing with the heat" money machine

A quick thread on the latest developments🧵Image
1⃣ Driving Gross Margin to Reinvest in OPEX

As the CEO pointed out:

We clearly understand that we can finance our growth initiatives through maintaining high enough growth margin. So it's really kind of balancing both of these top line and profitability and clearly our goal is that we consistently deliver both. So consistently both strong top line development at good healthy margins that allow us to keep developing the business. As we see so many opportunities and at the same time then from the opportunity point of view we see also some needs internally where we need to increase our efforts such as product development, channel development, stronger digital offering as part of our portfolio, even stronger digital channels to the market etc. So that profitable high growth margin growth allows us then to make the company also stronger for the coming years.Image
2⃣ Doing It by the Valuation Book

One of the common misconceptions is that companies should consistently grow their margins, but what about growth investments that drive your top-line and inhibit near- to mid-term margin expansion and ROIIC just as long as growth opportunities can be identified?Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
LVMH's Q1 2025 highlights - a weak start to 2025 $LVMH $RMS

1/ 3% organic revenue decline, falling short of analyst expectations calling for a 2% increase. The Fashion & Leather Goods division, accounting for nearly half of total sales, experienced a 5% drop.Louis Vuitton outperformed the division average, while Dior underperformed slightly. Brands like Celine and Loewe are undergoing creative transitions, impacting sales.Image
2/ Regionally, Europe showed modest growth of 2%, while Asia (excluding Japan) declined 11%, primarily due to weakened Chinese demand. The US saw a 3% decline, and Japan was down 1%.
3/ Other business segments also faced challenges: Wines & Spirits declined 9%, Perfumes & Cosmetics decreased 1%, and Selective Retailing fell 1%. Watches & Jewelry remained stable.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
Why we named Harvia our top quality growth pick for 2025 and beyond (got extensive deep dive available on our S-Stack). A 🧵on this great company. $HARVIA

° relatively unknown, but covering a niche sector
° unmatched operational efficiency
° under-promising and over-delivering Image
1⃣ In the U.S. alone, the sauna market is estimated at 800m USD, growing at 10-15% annually. Following the ThermaSol acquisition, Harvia holds a 14-15% market share in the U.S.

If Harvia doubles its U.S. revenue by FY 2027 and maintains 5% annual growth in other regions, the company could achieve mid-teens percent annual NOPAT growth, coupled with strong cash flow thanks to its high ROIIC.

Its sales breakdown by geography can be found below.Image
2⃣ Furthermore, Harvia has unutilized capacity from recent upgrades made during and after COVID. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 28, 2024
Three one-pagers on quality-investing - successful serial acquirers, valuing companies, and the nuances to a DCF. A thread🧵

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Serial acquirers - Thanks to the higher NPV (Net Present Value) of future cash streams, negative capital employed serial acquirers with good organic growth have the highest return potential amongst all others. Simply stated, high or low organic growth: it won’t matter that much to overall working capital and CAPEX movements. Organic growth expenses show up in their P&L and are being compensated for by revenue growth. Unsurprisingly, we feel comfortable putting most of our allocation to serial acquirers in the CSI family basket.

When a serial acquirer runs out of growth opportunities, organic growth and/or sees its ROIC deteriorate, investors should reset their expectations. For some of the Swedish serial acquirers, total EBITA (and NOPAT) growth has been pretty astounding as of late. Investors have been paying up for their future growth outlook but they'd better be cognizant of the main driver behind that growth: margin expansion. The current multiples reflect the tailwind of efficiency enhancements we've witnessed over the past 5 years. Rather than upgrading their revenue growth forecasts, investors are counting on that very same profit tailwind to justify their future fair values. So, beware.
Valuing companies - Investing is about figuring out market expectations, comparing those with your own (realistic) long-term targets and most importantly: thinking about optionality. Life is full of surprises.

Excellent companies will adapt to a changing economic environment. Given that the value of companies is determined by the future cash streams (ROIC and reinvestment rate), we keep an eye on the drivers of future ROIC and IRR for the existing business, and of course growth investments. We're buying the future IRR/ROIC, not the past track record.

We want to own companies that become even more efficient, invest for future growth and strive for the best risk-weighted returns. Optionality is about thinking about what the future return drivers and detractors could look like. Under-promising and over-delivering keeps the share price vs. fair value in check. Agility is what sets great companies and investors apart from the mediocre ones.
Read 8 tweets

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