Andrew Tobias Profile picture
Aug 4 15 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Hello from the west side of Cincinnati. I’m across the street from where Vivek Ramaswamy will hold a town hall this evening on crime and public safety. It comes after a video of a downtown brawl went viral. Local Democrats are holding counter programming here. Image
I spent an hour chatting with people on both sides of the street. The protesters all agree the video was bad, but blown out of proportion for political reasons.

Celeste Reece compared it to the Springfield cats and dogs situation, around which Ramaswamy also held a town hall.
"I do believe that there is an incentive for people running in Ohio, just like we saw with the cats situation that you know, they were eating cats in different parts of Ohio. And I think that this is just one of those things that they're using once again," Reece said.
Attendees said the video shocked them. A couple people I spoke with don’t necessarily think Cincinnati is unsafe.

Gary Bryce said it’s trending in the wrong direction.

“It’s emblematic of the bad people running around town who haven’t been incarcerated like they should be.”
Inside the rally, they’re working through the speaker lineup. Cory Bowman, JD Vance’s half brother and Republican Cincinnati mayoral candidate is up.

“Many of us, for those people that are in the city, we knew that it was taking a turn on our streets to being unsafe.” Image
(Bowman came in second in the March primary and qualified for a runoff… although he finished 70 points behind Mayor Aftab Pureval.)
Bowman has a line that gets people going and speaks to what's animating his candidacy.

"Many of you know who my relative is... The difference between me and the person I'm running against is he's trying to use Cincinnati to get to DC. I'm trying to use DC to get to Cincinnati."
Ramaswamy explains why he’s here.
Before transitioning to audience questions, Ramaswamy has Sarah Herringer, whose husband was murdered in their home in Over the Rhine in June, take the stage.

“He was killed in his own home because of how this city is run,” she says. Image
This murder case was horrible - I remember reading about it - but it did not get a fraction of the attention as the viral video that prompted this rally.

cincinnati.com/story/news/cri…
The Q&A portion drops into the deep end of a race relations conversation.

"You can look on YouTube all around the country our people getting crucified," says an elderly Black man." Nobody says anything about it. But when something happens like this it’s a big uproar."
Another Black guy wearing a MAGA hat speaks up. He says Democrats are really the racist party. He gets some applause. Image
Ramaswamy seems to endorse creating a state database showing sentencing decisions by local judges. Democratic Ohio Supreme Court justices campaigned for such a thing in 2022 against opposition, more or less, from Republican Chief Justice Sharon Kennedy.
Ramaswamy says: "My view is, you may agree or disagree, but we have a right to at least know what decisions our judges are making."
Multiple times, Ramaswamy has referred to meeting earlier today with Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval and police leadership.

He said they were reluctant to do so, and only did so when he promised their conversation would remain private.

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More from @AndrewJTobias

Nov 6, 2024
Senator-elect Bernie Moreno held a half-hour availability with Ohio media today. He basically said he wants to have an open and productive relationship.

He fielded questions on quite a few topics and got a little more specific now that campaign season is over.
Moreno said it's important to keep Intel in Ohio, and he "can't foresee a repeal" of the CHIPS Act.

"I can see a modification of it from grants to maybe tax incentives, and just a better operational execution of that. But that's something that certainly top of my priority list."
Who should DeWine appoint to fill JD Vance's seat?

He said he wants someone with whom he can have a productive relationship.

"I have not put enormous amounts of effort into thinking about who that would be, but I will starting to tomorrow."
Read 8 tweets
Aug 7, 2023
Although there are still outstanding absentee ballots to be counted, the final pre-Aug. 8 election early vote numbers are in. 695,561 Ohioans have voted early.

That's around 8.7% of overall voter turnout and more than the 638,708 that voted overall (8% turnout) in August 2022.
Responding to a question, there are roughly 68,000 outstanding absentee ballots. It's reasonable to expect around 90% of these will be returned, so that's another 61,000 or so potential early votes yet to be counted.
The number is more than double the 263,542 Ohioans who voted ahead of the May 2022 primary, which had 20.9% overall turnout.

It's hard to say what this means for turnout. I expect a larger percentage of people voted early for this election than that one, but we'll see tomorrow!
Read 9 tweets
Sep 15, 2022
With Ohio Democrats getting hopeful about poll results in the Senate race, the Ohio Republican Party has issued a press release that includes this story I wrote in 2020.

cleveland.com/election/2020/…
"Recent polls showing a tied race between JD Vance and Lyin' Tim Ryan may not be wholly accurate based on pollsters' performance in recent election cycles, but we are taking nothing for granted," says ORP spokesman Dan Lusheck.
Bad polling in Ohio has left me as a political reporter to basically fly blind in setting expectations for races I'm covering. But the polls leading up to the May primary did actually basically get it right for a change.

cleveland.com/news/2022/05/f…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15, 2022
Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor is delivering her final State of the Judiciary address.

"We've come a long way together," she kicks off.
O'Connor basically has been excommunicated from the Republican Party over her repeated rulings against the GOP in redistricting litigation this year, and the GOP state leg leaders have taken to basically ignoring the court on redistricting, so I'm interested to see what she says.
O'Connor announces the Ohio Supreme Court will be updating its terrible website, launching a redesign on Oct. 1. Now there's an idea whose time has come.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 15, 2022
Montrose Group, a Republican public affairs firm in Columbus, has released a wide-ranging poll that includes #OHGov and #OHSen. It was conducted Sept. 6-11, the week Republicans ramped up their spending in the race.

Toplines:

DeWine 49 Whaley 37

Ryan 46 Vance 43
The poll was done by Fallon Research, which I'm not very familiar with, but which did some polling for Mary Taylor's Super PAC in 2018.

Montrose generally deals with economic development issues, and there are a bunch of Cap Square-type Qs.

Cross tabs:

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2241…
Final note on this, this poll is among registered voters, but the methodological notes say the voters either have "histories of voting in recent even-year November elections" or are new registrants.
Read 4 tweets
May 5, 2022
Per @ZackMS, JD Vance won 74 of Ohio's 88 counties, while Josh Mandel won 11 and Matt Dolan won 3. Check out a map here:

cleveland.com/data/2022/05/d…
There's also a map showing which counties Tim Ryan won in the Democratic Senate primary. Spoiler alert: it's a map of Ohio.

cleveland.com/data/2022/05/d…
You can also see how Gov. Mike DeWine did -- he won 64 of 88 counties, while Joe Blystone won 22.

cleveland.com/data/2022/05/d…
Read 4 tweets

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