Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 4 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Josep Borrell: Since I left, there’s been no new military aid to Ukraine from the EU.

The €6.6B from the European Peace Facility is blocked by Hungary.

It’s the end of this instrument. Everything will have to be bilateral now, EUobserver reports. 1/ Image
Borrell on the EU-US trade deal: It gives the impression of weakness and submission to Trump’s demands.

Europe can hardly be considered a strategically autonomous actor now. 2/
Borrell: The [tariffs] agreement is based on additional elements that are completely impossible to fulfill. 3/
Borrell: Buying US gas for $750B over 3 years. The EU doesn’t buy gas, companies do.

We want our own defense industry and promised to buy everything from the US.

We have a green strategy and tripled gas purchases. 4/
Borrell on EU strategy: Poor strategy – more a surrender than a negotiation.

We pursued a smile and good manners approach, hoping to melt Trump’s heart and got a balanced deal. But it didn’t work. 5/
Borrell on US strategy: The US follows the old strategy of bullies.

The US threatened 30% tariffs, then offered 15%, and we’re expected to be grateful. 6/
Borrell on Biden vs Trump: Under Biden, we followed the US lead, especially on China. Biden wasn’t hostile.

With Trump, even securing a meeting was hard. 7/
Borrell on Ursula and Trump: The meeting [between Ursula von der Leyen and Trump] barely lasted an hour.

It was already cooked, a sort of take-it-or-leave-it deal. 8/
Borrell on whether the US will sell Ukraine and Europe to Putin:

Trump only cares about Trump. If conceding to Russia benefits him, he’ll do it. If not, he won’t.

What he’ll do when the $60B aid package runs out. 9/
Borrell: The big question for the EU is if the US stopped supporting Ukraine, could we continue to support them, making up for the loss of American aid? 10/
Borrell on ending the war: The war won’t end soon.

Reason: Putin isn't in a hurry. He has the human resources to sacrifice as many as needed.

Ukraine doesn’t. It has a shortage of military manpower. 11/
Borrell: Russia has China behind, which supplies them equipment. They can bring in North Korean soldiers.

Russia can prolong this for years. 12/
Borrell: Russia hasn’t won, because Zelenskyy is still in Kyiv. It hasn’t lost either, because it hasn’t been pushed out of the occupied territories.

Ukraine hasn’t won, because Russia is still there, but it hasn’t lost either. 13/
Borrell on Russian opposition: Navalny is dead, his resistance movement is exhausted.

It's a factor enabling Putin to continue the war too. No internal opposition. 14X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 6
Grozev: Russian special services invent threats for Putin to approve killings, hiding private interests as state ones — like losing a big arms deal.

They label rivals as ISIS or CIA agents and add them to kill lists. This mafia system protects itself. 1/
Grozev: Western and Russian intelligence services both violate laws — laws aren’t written for them. All can plan liquidation of real threats.

But Western services do it less, more transparently. Russian do it more and more, as in Soviet times — linked to corruption. 2/
Grozev: Scientists involved in poisonings joked about who to kill with which poison — Nemtsov, Navalny. This is their culture. Some rethink life only after a shock.

They read our investigations — we see it in their emails. They're not sorry, just afraid of being exposed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: If an intelligence officer needs to sleep with a prostitute for the job, there's no problem.

Men exaggerate to show their strength.

In these situations we gained information that we couldn't obtain otherwise. 1/
Budanov: Many our agents in Russia live full lives. They are often the biggest the Z-patriots.

Sometimes they experience nervous breakdowns.

2/
Budanov: It's easier to recruit men. Women are more cunning and quickly understand what's happening.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.

Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/ Image
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.

But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
China is choking the Pentagon’s supply of critical minerals.

Missile magnets. Infrared sensors. Drone motors.

Lockheed and other defense giants say the U.S. war machine is running low on parts.

WSJ: the scramble to cut dependence has already begun.

1/ Image
Beijing controls 90% of rare earths. It banned exports of germanium, gallium, and antimony — used for bullets, missiles, and night vision.

Now Western firms must send product photos and buyer lists to get Chinese supply cleared.

2/
ePropelled, a U.S. drone motor maker, faced a 2-month delay after China blocked a magnet shipment.

Its Chinese supplier demanded: blueprints, buyer names, proof it wasn’t for defense.

They refused. The order was stopped.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Aug 5
India defies Trump.

Despite a 25% U.S. tariff on Indian exports Modi refuses to stop buying Russian oil. Russian crude now makes up one-third of India’s total imports.

Bloomberg: No stop order has been issued to refiners. Purchases remain commercial.

1/ Image
Modi responded to pressure: Whatever we buy, we’ll buy what’s made by the sweat of an Indian.

The message: domestic self-reliance over foreign pressure.

This comes as India joins BRICS and deepens its ties with Russia.

2/
Trump escalates.

He accuses India of “cheating” on trade and immigration.

Stephen Miller (Trump’s deputy chief): India imposes massive tariffs, buys as much Russian oil as China, and games the U.S. visa system. Everything is on the table.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 5
Russia is sealing off the internet to isolate its people.

AP news: In July, Russia passed a law that punishes users for searching “extremist” content — LGBTQ+ topics, Navalny’s memoir, and anti-Kremlin music.

State agencies are blocking VPNs to cut access to banned sites. 1/ Image
Russian authorities now disrupt YouTube, WhatsApp, Signal, and Facebook.

They plan to ban WhatsApp (97M users) and replace it with MAX — a state-run app preinstalled on all phones. 2/
MAX shares user data with authorities and bundles messaging, payments, and government services.

The government is ordering officials and employees to switch. Only 2M users have registered. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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