Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 5 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
McKinsey’s era is ending.

Its revenue doubled from 2012 to $16B in 2024, but last year growth collapsed to 2%.

It fired 5,000 staff, and lost ground to BCG [Boston Consulting Group], which now earns 83% of McKinsey’s revenue, up from 50% in 2012, writes The Economist.

1/ Image
BCG grew 10% in 2024, 5x faster than McKinsey. It narrowed the revenue gap from 2x in 2012 to just 1.2x. Bain grew just as fast. If trends hold, BCG will overtake McKinsey by 2027.

2/
Under Dominic Barton (2009–18), McKinsey chased reckless expansion. He told partners in 2013: Ask for forgiveness, not permission. That era birthed the opioid and South Africa scandals.

3/
McKinsey built a massive tech arm by buying 16 firms since 2013. It moved into implementation, competing with Accenture and the Big Four, but had to cut fees and shift from generalists to geeks.

4/
Now AI threatens McKinsey’s high-fee model. The firm’s Lilli chatbot and QuantumBlack unit may speed up slide-building and analysis, but clients may soon ask why they’re paying premium prices for bot work.

5/
Palantir [Q1 2025 revenue up 39%, $3B annualized] embeds engineers and sells AI tools. Its market cap hit $365B. UBS calls it McKinsey meets Databricks. Clients follow them for software and advice.

6/
OpenAI also moved in, offering enterprise consulting. McKinsey faces attacks on both ends: legacy rivals outgrow it; tech firms eat its future.

7X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 7
Trump: Very good chance Zelenskyy and Putin will meet. Location not set, but talks with Putin today were very good. Could be the ending round. Meeting may happen very soon. 1/
Trump: I don't call talks with Putin a breakthrough. Russia lost 20,000 soldiers this year, Ukraine about 9,000. No U.S. troops there, but I feel obligated to stop it. No land was taken under Trump, only under Bush, Biden, Obama. 2/
Trump: We put a 50% tariff on India. They're close to China in buying oil from Russia. I don't know if that affected anything, but we had very productive talks today. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
FT: Trump is considering sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers if Putin doesn't agree to a Ukraine ceasefire by Friday.

It would be the first of Trump’s second term’s sanctions on Russia. 1/ Image
FT analysis shows sanctioned tankers became 73% less productive, dropping from shipping 48M barrels monthly before listing to only 13M barrels afterward. 2/
Graham-Blumenthal's bill proposes 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.

Trump said he's very strongly considering them, but an analyst doubts enforcement sustainability. 3Х
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
NYT: Putin gave up on US deals, seeing presidents as temporary and agreements as meaningless

Moscow's elite live in a bubble, ignoring real problems while convinced nothing can harm them

Russian leaders dismiss Trump's Ukraine threats, thinking he won't risk oil price hikes. 1/ Image
Six months ago, Moscow hoped for a thaw if Trump returned. Propagandists were told not to criticize his team. U.S. businessmen claiming ties to Trump’s campaign visited Moscow, promising sanctions relief. 2/
Kremlin media now slam Trump’s circle, calling Lindsey Graham a “Russophobic extremist.”

On Russia-1, a host yelled: You’ll be destroyed with your America, and no one will remember your name. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 6
Grozev: Russian special services invent threats for Putin to approve killings, hiding private interests as state ones — like losing a big arms deal.

They label rivals as ISIS or CIA agents and add them to kill lists. This mafia system protects itself. 1/
Grozev: Western and Russian intelligence services both violate laws — laws aren’t written for them. All can plan liquidation of real threats.

But Western services do it less, more transparently. Russian do it more and more, as in Soviet times — linked to corruption. 2/
Grozev: Scientists involved in poisonings joked about who to kill with which poison — Nemtsov, Navalny. This is their culture. Some rethink life only after a shock.

They read our investigations — we see it in their emails. They're not sorry, just afraid of being exposed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: If an intelligence officer needs to sleep with a prostitute for the job, there's no problem.

Men exaggerate to show their strength.

In these situations we gained information that we couldn't obtain otherwise. 1/
Budanov: Many our agents in Russia live full lives. They are often the biggest the Z-patriots.

Sometimes they experience nervous breakdowns.

2/
Budanov: It's easier to recruit men. Women are more cunning and quickly understand what's happening.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.

Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/ Image
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.

But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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