Thread by @GabrielEpsteinX

Yesterday (8/4), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 12th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 60,198 entries and covering up to July 31. Longer analysis of data quality and demographics 🧵:

Like all published MOH lists, the July list does not distinguish between civilians and combatants and attributes all listed deaths uniformly to Israeli action. Nor does it include the dates of death (none of the lists have) or collection methodology (which most iterations have).

The new list contains 60,198 reported deaths, 99.96% of which have complete information. See my previous analysis for more on why “completeness” is only one of several relevant metrics, including validity and accuracy, to use when assessing the MOH list.

https://x.com/GabrielEpsteinX/status/1925619221796376582

Of the 60,198 entries, 45.8% are men (18-59), 16.2% are women (18-59), 30.7% are children, and 7.4% are elderly (left). Of the 1,765 deaths added since June 15, 50.3% are men (18-59) (right). In other words, the share of adult men and older teenage boys killed continues to grow.

The demographics demonstrate a much higher share of adult men (18-59) and older teenage boys relative to their share of the population and a much lower share of women and children (see chart). The share of men and older teenage boys continues to grow over time.

This is particularly pronounced among men 18-45, who are 3.00 times more likely to have died than women of that same age range. Men 18-45 likely make up the overwhelming majority of combatants, alongside some proportion of older teenage boys and older men.

Adult men have made up a narrow majority of the listed casualties since the last iteration of the MOH list in mid-July (50.4%). However, many press outlets continue to report the MOH as saying that the majority of those killed were women and children. apnews.com/article/israel…

The list remains largely stable, with 9 entries removed and 62 re-added since the last list was published on July 15. Overall, 4,283 entries have been removed since June 2024, and 12.1% (519) have been re-added. See this graphic for more detail: public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Additions to the list come in three forms: new deaths, bodies recovered (whether from remote areas or under the rubble), and bulk processing of family reports by a judicial committee (9 discrete updates since Jan 19). This table shows each since the start of the Jan 19 ceasefire.

Deaths added retroactively that are from earlier parts of the war, particularly Oct-Dec 2023, also skew towards men 18-45. These contribute to the gaps between the contemporaneous MOH reporting and the current MOH dashboard with deaths broken out by month.

It is not very useful to try and estimate combatants or a civilian-combatant ratio from the list demographics. Many combatant deaths took place in remote areas or tunnels, and may not be included for practical or ideological reasons.

Civilian men also tend to die more frequently than women in wars. However, this may be less pronounced when a primary source of civilian deaths is airstrikes, particularly those on high-profile targets who may be with their families or hiding among civilians.

It’s also clear that the MOH list includes at least some deaths not attributable to Israel or which were non-violent. The list both includes some reports it should not and excludes some that it should, both civilian and combatant.

https://x.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1952006485652987969

Hhow many deaths are not captured by the MOH list? While some work has argued that an undercount of perhaps 40% is likely, this runs well above missing persons claims even by the GMO, which has lied extensively about casualty figures.

https://x.com/GabrielEpsteinX/status/1947382655655248104

While it is true that the Civil Defense lacks the heavy excavating equipment and the dangers of unexploded ordnance impede some recovery efforts, the recovery of less than 1,300 bodies across 6.5 months does not indicate tens of thousands are under the rubble.

The family reporting system is also intended to capture deaths, like those trapped under the rubble, that cannot or did not reach hospitals. This form has been heavily advertised and active for over 18 months, with thousands of reports still being processed.

These factors combined--continued monitoring, multiple collection methods, and lower missing claims-- are likely to result in a more moderate undercount, which for practical/ideological reasons is likely to include a higher share of combatants than the current counted death toll.

A spreadsheet version of this list with basic processing is available by request. For other basic analytical points, see these earlier threads: x.com/GabrielEpstein…
x.com/GabrielEpstein…
x.com/GabrielEpstein…

Sources:
July 31 list (MOH Telegram): t.me/MOHMediaGaza/6…
July 31 list (PDF) — archived with all previous lists: archive.org/details/moh-de…
Spreadsheet version available on request.

MOH Dashboard: sehatty.ps/public/
Archived dashboard iterations: archive.org/details/moh-da…

For more in-depth explanations of everything mentioned in this thread and much more, see my recent report with the
@WashInstitute
analyzing the MOH’s May 2025 list: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…