Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Gabriel Epstein Profile picture
Gabriel Epstein
@GabrielEpsteinX
Policy & Comms Associate @IsraelPolicy4m. Former Research Assistant @WashInstitute. Graduate @SAISHopkins.
Oct 20 • 20 tweets • 11 min read
Without comment on the rest, this part misses a key point: while the ceasefire is having an impact, WFP’s newfound success in getting aid to its warehouses came more than a week earlier, when WFP began to send aid via Kissufim crossing and may have begun using security. Long🧵 Image WFP aid to Gaza was nearly uniformly looted from the time aid resumed on May 19 to the end of September. By a certain point, WFP aid being looted was the looting problem — Egypt/Jordan/UAE, other U.N. agencies, NGOs, and merchants adapted, but WFP did not. Image
Oct 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
According to “The Guardian" channel, associated with Hamas, the group has launched its efforts to: 1) collect dud Israeli munitions and left-behind equipment (L), and 2) recover any of its own lost or stolen "resistance weapons" (R). Further consolidation of power and arms. Image
Image There are legitimate reasons to collect unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other military equipment — it is dangerous to civilians and inhibits search-and-rescue and reconstruction. But Hamas has long repurposed UXO into IEDs, and wants a near-monopoly on weapons inside Gaza.
Oct 13 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The al-Majayda clan, which clashed with Hamas last week, has announced it will disarm and hand weapons over to Hamas following repeated assaults and threats against them. Hamas' bloody fight with the Dughmush clan and public executions of several members likely played a role. Image Predictions of civil war in Gaza are overblown -- Hamas is by far the most powerful and coordinated armed actor, while those it is clashing with are usually limited in number and often geographically isolated. Clans see no point fighting Hamas if it is likely to stay in power.
Aug 29 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
For those wondering, this is not U.N. aid. It is a warehouse controlled by the Egyptian Committee (ERC), which operates outside the U.N. 2720 system and moves/distributes aid on its own. This is one of three major state-led Gaza aid efforts — Egyptian, Emirati, and Jordanian. 🧵 A broader view of this yard is here, six seconds into an Egyptian Committee promotional video from Aug 26. The picture below shows a view inside the warehouse. facebook.com/61570901403004…Image
Image
Aug 26 • 19 tweets • 9 min read
The U.N.’s Gaza aid channel is plagued by near-ubiquitous looting of food aid. But UNICEF has successfully delivered 380 tons of food in the last two weeks, while WFP and WCK have delivered none. The apparent key to UNICEF’s success? Hiring security. 🧵 Image Non-food aid gets through at much higher rates than food, but even there UNICEF is particularly successful. Since the start of August, 82.1% of UNICEF aid has arrived successfully, at a higher rate than the Red Cross (11% successful) and volume than any aid org except WFP/WCK. Image
Aug 21 • 34 tweets • 12 min read
The +972/Guardian articles alleging that the IDF’s internal data indicates it has killed fewer than 9,000 militants in Gaza misconstrues the available data, improperly combines IDF and Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry figures, and fails to ask key questions. Very long thread 🧵 Image BLUF: Is it possible the IDF is overstating militants killed in Gaza? Yes. But these articles do not present a convincing case about the existence or extent of an undercount, and instead ignore data limitations and common sense to make a flashy claim.
Aug 20 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
3 months after Gaza aid resumed: Aid flows increase, but looting of food aid is near-universal; GHF aid expands, commercial traffic picks up, and airdrops continue. The emerging status quo turns aid into a profit source and harms the vulnerable. Long 🧵(one on prices to follow): Goods flow into Gaza via several channels: U.N.-facilitated aid under the 2720 mechanism (~1/3), the GHF (~1/3), and a mix of airdrops, state and NGO donors outside the U.N. mechanism, and commercial traffic. COGAT reports 182,592 tons of aid have entered Gaza since May 19. Image
Aug 19 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
This is too harsh. The U.N. dashboard -- which is, to be clear, an incomplete picture -- does contain a disclaimer that it only reflects aid transferred via the 2720 mechanism. Moreover, it provides much greater detail about this aid channel. Short 🧵on 2720 and aid metrics: Security Council Resolution 2720, passed in December 2023, set up a mechanism that would coordinate between aid “consignors” (organizations sending aid) and COGAT. Aid under 2720 is tracked from manifest to delivery (or looting) via QR codes. info.un2720.org
Aug 13 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Update on prices and aid flows in Gaza (8/13): Nearly all U.N. aid is still looted, with success varying heavily by org; food/goods prices are lower but stabilizing at a high level; cash commission rate has collapsed but remains well above normal; GHF aid and airdrops expand. 🧵 Image In the week Aug 3-10, 91.3% of attempted aid deliveries (by weight) under the U.N. mechanism were looted. However, WCK and UNICEF saw much higher success rates than WFP, all of whose aid was looted. Image
Aug 12 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
GHF's distribution of RUSF nutritional supplements, which are intended for children 6 months-5 years old with moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), is a welcome development that should be expanded to all sites. A few more details: 🧵 Although GHF says the RUSF (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food) packets are for severe malnutrition, they are not. Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is treated (in part) with RUTF (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food), which replaces rather than supplements meals. Image
Aug 7 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Data from the Gaza Chamber of Commerce indicates food prices have begun to drop sharply in Gaza due to increased aid flows and resumption of some private sector inflows yesterday. But this does not mean the crisis is easing. 🧵 Image Prices of 6 of 8 food prices tracked by the Chamber are now cheaper than they were on May 20, when aid, had just resumed. While the collapse in prices is a good sign, food is still extremely expensive—the May 20 prices were 10-100x pre-war prices. Image
Aug 5 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Yesterday (8/4), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 12th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 60,198 entries and covering up to July 31. Longer analysis of data quality and demographics 🧵: Image Like all published MOH lists, the July list does not distinguish between civilians and combatants and attributes all listed deaths uniformly to Israeli action. Nor does it include the dates of death (none of the lists have) or collection methodology (which most iterations have).
Jul 16 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
Yesterday (7/15), the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (MOH) released its 11th list of the dead (via Telegram and WhatsApp) since the Israel-Hamas war began, containing 58,380 entries and covering up to July 15. An analysis🧵: Image Sourcing:
The list on the MOH Telegram: t.me/MOHMediaGaza/6…
As an archived PDF (along with all other versions of the list): archive.org/details/moh-de…
The MOH dashboard can be accessed here: sehatty.ps/public/
All archived dashboard iterations: archive.org/details/moh-da…
May 22 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
This list, which covers up to May 11, is a subset of the full list of 52,958 reported deaths published this only via a small Health Ministry WhatsApp group on May 19. I analyze the full list in my new @WashInstitute report: 🧵 washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…Image The full list (PDF) is here, along with the 8 previous Health Ministry lists: archive.org/embed/moh-deat…

A spreadsheet version with demographic/data processing is linked here and in my piece: archive.org/details/moh-de…