Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 5 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Russia is sealing off the internet to isolate its people.

AP news: In July, Russia passed a law that punishes users for searching “extremist” content — LGBTQ+ topics, Navalny’s memoir, and anti-Kremlin music.

State agencies are blocking VPNs to cut access to banned sites. 1/ Image
Russian authorities now disrupt YouTube, WhatsApp, Signal, and Facebook.

They plan to ban WhatsApp (97M users) and replace it with MAX — a state-run app preinstalled on all phones. 2/
MAX shares user data with authorities and bundles messaging, payments, and government services.

The government is ordering officials and employees to switch. Only 2M users have registered. 3/
Since 2022, Russia has slowed or blocked access to foreign-hosted websites.

Services using Cloudflare or similar providers often fail to load. The goal is to force users migration to state-controlled infrastructure. 4/
Costs for internet provider licenses rose from $90 to $12,300 in 2024. 7 firms now control most Russian IP addresses. State-run Rostelecom alone holds 25%. 5/
Roskomnadzor filters all web traffic, inspects DNS requests, and blocks content in real time. Analysts say the Kremlin’s tools are now more effective than past attempts to copy China’s Great Firewall. 6X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 7
Trump: Very good chance Zelenskyy and Putin will meet. Location not set, but talks with Putin today were very good. Could be the ending round. Meeting may happen very soon. 1/
Trump: I don't call talks with Putin a breakthrough. Russia lost 20,000 soldiers this year, Ukraine about 9,000. No U.S. troops there, but I feel obligated to stop it. No land was taken under Trump, only under Bush, Biden, Obama. 2/
Trump: We put a 50% tariff on India. They're close to China in buying oil from Russia. I don't know if that affected anything, but we had very productive talks today. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
FT: Trump is considering sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers if Putin doesn't agree to a Ukraine ceasefire by Friday.

It would be the first of Trump’s second term’s sanctions on Russia. 1/ Image
FT analysis shows sanctioned tankers became 73% less productive, dropping from shipping 48M barrels monthly before listing to only 13M barrels afterward. 2/
Graham-Blumenthal's bill proposes 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.

Trump said he's very strongly considering them, but an analyst doubts enforcement sustainability. 3Х
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6
NYT: Putin gave up on US deals, seeing presidents as temporary and agreements as meaningless

Moscow's elite live in a bubble, ignoring real problems while convinced nothing can harm them

Russian leaders dismiss Trump's Ukraine threats, thinking he won't risk oil price hikes. 1/ Image
Six months ago, Moscow hoped for a thaw if Trump returned. Propagandists were told not to criticize his team. U.S. businessmen claiming ties to Trump’s campaign visited Moscow, promising sanctions relief. 2/
Kremlin media now slam Trump’s circle, calling Lindsey Graham a “Russophobic extremist.”

On Russia-1, a host yelled: You’ll be destroyed with your America, and no one will remember your name. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 6
Grozev: Russian special services invent threats for Putin to approve killings, hiding private interests as state ones — like losing a big arms deal.

They label rivals as ISIS or CIA agents and add them to kill lists. This mafia system protects itself. 1/
Grozev: Western and Russian intelligence services both violate laws — laws aren’t written for them. All can plan liquidation of real threats.

But Western services do it less, more transparently. Russian do it more and more, as in Soviet times — linked to corruption. 2/
Grozev: Scientists involved in poisonings joked about who to kill with which poison — Nemtsov, Navalny. This is their culture. Some rethink life only after a shock.

They read our investigations — we see it in their emails. They're not sorry, just afraid of being exposed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: If an intelligence officer needs to sleep with a prostitute for the job, there's no problem.

Men exaggerate to show their strength.

In these situations we gained information that we couldn't obtain otherwise. 1/
Budanov: Many our agents in Russia live full lives. They are often the biggest the Z-patriots.

Sometimes they experience nervous breakdowns.

2/
Budanov: It's easier to recruit men. Women are more cunning and quickly understand what's happening.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.

Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/ Image
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.

But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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