Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 5 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
China is choking the Pentagon’s supply of critical minerals.

Missile magnets. Infrared sensors. Drone motors.

Lockheed and other defense giants say the U.S. war machine is running low on parts.

WSJ: the scramble to cut dependence has already begun.

1/ Image
Beijing controls 90% of rare earths. It banned exports of germanium, gallium, and antimony — used for bullets, missiles, and night vision.

Now Western firms must send product photos and buyer lists to get Chinese supply cleared.

2/
ePropelled, a U.S. drone motor maker, faced a 2-month delay after China blocked a magnet shipment.

Its Chinese supplier demanded: blueprints, buyer names, proof it wasn’t for defense.

They refused. The order was stopped.

3/
Prices have exploded.

One firm was offered samarium for 60x the normal rate — needed for jet engines like F-35.

Other firms report paying 5x more for materials like neodymium.

4/
More than 80,000 Pentagon components use minerals now under Chinese control.

Nearly all of America’s defense mineral supply chains depend on at least one Chinese source, says Govini.

5/
Leonardo CEO: We’re down to our safety stock of germanium.

That means U.S. missile sensors may face delivery delays.

Firms now scramble to find new sources in Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. startups.

6/
China detained a shipment of antimony mined in Australia for 3 months in Ningbo.

U.S. Antimony Corp had to send it back to Australia. Seals were broken. Tampering suspected.

This was routine routing — until now.

7/
The Pentagon is spending to catch up.

In July, it invested $400M in MP Materials, which runs the only major U.S. rare-earth mine.

Lockheed: this deal is vital for magnet supply in F-35s and cruise missiles.

8/
Smaller drone startups are most exposed.

They lack stockpiles. They lack leverage.

Their survival depends on how fast U.S. magnet makers like Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth can scale.

9/
The Pentagon launched the Critical Minerals Forum in 2024.

It now funds miners, offers grants (like $14M to a Canadian germanium firm), and is mapping alternatives. But supply won’t come fast.

10/
Phoenix Tailings CEO: Big defense firms now realize they won’t get magnets unless they secure sources directly. Panic is rising.

Without a full-scale Western supply chain, defense systems remain hostage to Beijing.

11X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 7
Trump: Very good chance Zelenskyy and Putin will meet. Location not set, but talks with Putin today were very good. Could be the ending round. Meeting may happen very soon. 1/
Trump: I don't call talks with Putin a breakthrough. Russia lost 20,000 soldiers this year, Ukraine about 9,000. No U.S. troops there, but I feel obligated to stop it. No land was taken under Trump, only under Bush, Biden, Obama. 2/
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Aug 6
FT: Trump is considering sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers if Putin doesn't agree to a Ukraine ceasefire by Friday.

It would be the first of Trump’s second term’s sanctions on Russia. 1/ Image
FT analysis shows sanctioned tankers became 73% less productive, dropping from shipping 48M barrels monthly before listing to only 13M barrels afterward. 2/
Graham-Blumenthal's bill proposes 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.

Trump said he's very strongly considering them, but an analyst doubts enforcement sustainability. 3Х
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Aug 6
NYT: Putin gave up on US deals, seeing presidents as temporary and agreements as meaningless

Moscow's elite live in a bubble, ignoring real problems while convinced nothing can harm them

Russian leaders dismiss Trump's Ukraine threats, thinking he won't risk oil price hikes. 1/ Image
Six months ago, Moscow hoped for a thaw if Trump returned. Propagandists were told not to criticize his team. U.S. businessmen claiming ties to Trump’s campaign visited Moscow, promising sanctions relief. 2/
Kremlin media now slam Trump’s circle, calling Lindsey Graham a “Russophobic extremist.”

On Russia-1, a host yelled: You’ll be destroyed with your America, and no one will remember your name. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 6
Grozev: Russian special services invent threats for Putin to approve killings, hiding private interests as state ones — like losing a big arms deal.

They label rivals as ISIS or CIA agents and add them to kill lists. This mafia system protects itself. 1/
Grozev: Western and Russian intelligence services both violate laws — laws aren’t written for them. All can plan liquidation of real threats.

But Western services do it less, more transparently. Russian do it more and more, as in Soviet times — linked to corruption. 2/
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They read our investigations — we see it in their emails. They're not sorry, just afraid of being exposed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: If an intelligence officer needs to sleep with a prostitute for the job, there's no problem.

Men exaggerate to show their strength.

In these situations we gained information that we couldn't obtain otherwise. 1/
Budanov: Many our agents in Russia live full lives. They are often the biggest the Z-patriots.

Sometimes they experience nervous breakdowns.

2/
Budanov: It's easier to recruit men. Women are more cunning and quickly understand what's happening.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.

Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/ Image
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.

But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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