Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 5 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
China is choking the Pentagon’s supply of critical minerals.

Missile magnets. Infrared sensors. Drone motors.

Lockheed and other defense giants say the U.S. war machine is running low on parts.

WSJ: the scramble to cut dependence has already begun.

1/ Image
Beijing controls 90% of rare earths. It banned exports of germanium, gallium, and antimony — used for bullets, missiles, and night vision.

Now Western firms must send product photos and buyer lists to get Chinese supply cleared.

2/
ePropelled, a U.S. drone motor maker, faced a 2-month delay after China blocked a magnet shipment.

Its Chinese supplier demanded: blueprints, buyer names, proof it wasn’t for defense.

They refused. The order was stopped.

3/
Prices have exploded.

One firm was offered samarium for 60x the normal rate — needed for jet engines like F-35.

Other firms report paying 5x more for materials like neodymium.

4/
More than 80,000 Pentagon components use minerals now under Chinese control.

Nearly all of America’s defense mineral supply chains depend on at least one Chinese source, says Govini.

5/
Leonardo CEO: We’re down to our safety stock of germanium.

That means U.S. missile sensors may face delivery delays.

Firms now scramble to find new sources in Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. startups.

6/
China detained a shipment of antimony mined in Australia for 3 months in Ningbo.

U.S. Antimony Corp had to send it back to Australia. Seals were broken. Tampering suspected.

This was routine routing — until now.

7/
The Pentagon is spending to catch up.

In July, it invested $400M in MP Materials, which runs the only major U.S. rare-earth mine.

Lockheed: this deal is vital for magnet supply in F-35s and cruise missiles.

8/
Smaller drone startups are most exposed.

They lack stockpiles. They lack leverage.

Their survival depends on how fast U.S. magnet makers like Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth can scale.

9/
The Pentagon launched the Critical Minerals Forum in 2024.

It now funds miners, offers grants (like $14M to a Canadian germanium firm), and is mapping alternatives. But supply won’t come fast.

10/
Phoenix Tailings CEO: Big defense firms now realize they won’t get magnets unless they secure sources directly. Panic is rising.

Without a full-scale Western supply chain, defense systems remain hostage to Beijing.

11X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 5
Ukraine’s Spy Chief, Budanov: If an intelligence officer needs to sleep with a prostitute for the job, there's no problem.

Men exaggerate to show their strength.

In these situations we gained information that we couldn't obtain otherwise. 1/
Budanov: Many our agents in Russia live full lives. They are often the biggest the Z-patriots.

Sometimes they experience nervous breakdowns.

2/
Budanov: It's easier to recruit men. Women are more cunning and quickly understand what's happening.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.

Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/ Image
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.

But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
India defies Trump.

Despite a 25% U.S. tariff on Indian exports Modi refuses to stop buying Russian oil. Russian crude now makes up one-third of India’s total imports.

Bloomberg: No stop order has been issued to refiners. Purchases remain commercial.

1/ Image
Modi responded to pressure: Whatever we buy, we’ll buy what’s made by the sweat of an Indian.

The message: domestic self-reliance over foreign pressure.

This comes as India joins BRICS and deepens its ties with Russia.

2/
Trump escalates.

He accuses India of “cheating” on trade and immigration.

Stephen Miller (Trump’s deputy chief): India imposes massive tariffs, buys as much Russian oil as China, and games the U.S. visa system. Everything is on the table.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 5
Russia is sealing off the internet to isolate its people.

AP news: In July, Russia passed a law that punishes users for searching “extremist” content — LGBTQ+ topics, Navalny’s memoir, and anti-Kremlin music.

State agencies are blocking VPNs to cut access to banned sites. 1/ Image
Russian authorities now disrupt YouTube, WhatsApp, Signal, and Facebook.

They plan to ban WhatsApp (97M users) and replace it with MAX — a state-run app preinstalled on all phones. 2/
MAX shares user data with authorities and bundles messaging, payments, and government services.

The government is ordering officials and employees to switch. Only 2M users have registered. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
Russia is betting that the long-range kamikaze drone "Shahed" could become a decisive weapon in the war against Ukraine, The Times.

Moscow believes that the Iranian design, enhanced with cheap Chinese components, can force Ukraine to capitulate. 1/ Image
Russian forces launch hundreds of these drones overnight, terrorizing cities in an attempt to finally break the will of the Ukrainian people.

Production ramped up at the Alabuga facility for drones carrying 90 kg payloads and traveling up to 1,600 miles. 2/
UN reports Russia launched 10x more missile drone attacks in June 2025 vs June 2024, killing 232 civilians – the highest monthly toll in 3 years.

Last Wednesday's massive attack on Kyiv killed 31 people, including 5 children, and wounded 159 others. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 5
In 2022, Russians captured combat medic Yuliia Paievska.

The Guardian: In her cell, she used plaster to scratch poems on the wall. It pulled her out of the abyss.

This summer, she read her poems publicly for the first time — in Kharkiv, where Russian missiles strike nightly. 1/ Image
Publisher Meridian Czernowitz organized the festival to support culture in wartime Kharkiv. it took place in an underground venue.

Cultural events in Kharkiv now operate below ground — theatres, readings, book launches. Missiles often land before sirens can warn. 2/
Poet and filmmaker Iryna Tsilyk read about daily life in wartime Kyiv — shopping for wine, comforting a child, and hiding from missiles in one afternoon. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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