Trump: Very good chance Zelenskyy and Putin will meet. Location not set, but talks with Putin today were very good. Could be the ending round. Meeting may happen very soon. 1/
Trump: I don't call talks with Putin a breakthrough. Russia lost 20,000 soldiers this year, Ukraine about 9,000. No U.S. troops there, but I feel obligated to stop it. No land was taken under Trump, only under Bush, Biden, Obama. 2/
Trump: We put a 50% tariff on India. They're close to China in buying oil from Russia. I don't know if that affected anything, but we had very productive talks today. 3/
FT: Trump is considering sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers if Putin doesn't agree to a Ukraine ceasefire by Friday.
It would be the first of Trump’s second term’s sanctions on Russia. 1/
FT analysis shows sanctioned tankers became 73% less productive, dropping from shipping 48M barrels monthly before listing to only 13M barrels afterward. 2/
Graham-Blumenthal's bill proposes 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.
Trump said he's very strongly considering them, but an analyst doubts enforcement sustainability. 3Х
Six months ago, Moscow hoped for a thaw if Trump returned. Propagandists were told not to criticize his team. U.S. businessmen claiming ties to Trump’s campaign visited Moscow, promising sanctions relief. 2/
Kremlin media now slam Trump’s circle, calling Lindsey Graham a “Russophobic extremist.”
On Russia-1, a host yelled: You’ll be destroyed with your America, and no one will remember your name. 3/
Grozev: Russian special services invent threats for Putin to approve killings, hiding private interests as state ones — like losing a big arms deal.
They label rivals as ISIS or CIA agents and add them to kill lists. This mafia system protects itself. 1/
Grozev: Western and Russian intelligence services both violate laws — laws aren’t written for them. All can plan liquidation of real threats.
But Western services do it less, more transparently. Russian do it more and more, as in Soviet times — linked to corruption. 2/
Grozev: Scientists involved in poisonings joked about who to kill with which poison — Nemtsov, Navalny. This is their culture. Some rethink life only after a shock.
They read our investigations — we see it in their emails. They're not sorry, just afraid of being exposed. 3/
Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.
Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.
But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/