Putin believes Russia is winning and is unlikely to accept Trump’s ceasefire ultimatum before Friday.
Reuters: Putin still wants full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He won’t risk angering Trump but won’t abandon his goals. 1/
Putin sees U.S. sanctions as survivable. After 3.5 years of war, $300B in reserves remain frozen, FDI is down 63%.
But Russia’s war economy continues to function. It’s sustained by North Korean ammo and Chinese components to keep the war machine running. 2/
Russian officials view Trump’s ultimatum as a bluff. Hitting China and India could raise oil prices, strain U.S. alliances, and hurt his own economy. Moscow doubts he’ll take that risk. 3/
Despite a 25% U.S. tariff on Indian exports Modi refuses to stop buying Russian oil. Russian crude now makes up one-third of India’s total imports.
Bloomberg: No stop order has been issued to refiners. Purchases remain commercial.
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Modi responded to pressure: Whatever we buy, we’ll buy what’s made by the sweat of an Indian.
The message: domestic self-reliance over foreign pressure.
This comes as India joins BRICS and deepens its ties with Russia.
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Trump escalates.
He accuses India of “cheating” on trade and immigration.
Stephen Miller (Trump’s deputy chief): India imposes massive tariffs, buys as much Russian oil as China, and games the U.S. visa system. Everything is on the table.
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In 2022, Russians captured combat medic Yuliia Paievska.
The Guardian: In her cell, she used plaster to scratch poems on the wall. It pulled her out of the abyss.
This summer, she read her poems publicly for the first time — in Kharkiv, where Russian missiles strike nightly. 1/
Publisher Meridian Czernowitz organized the festival to support culture in wartime Kharkiv. it took place in an underground venue.
Cultural events in Kharkiv now operate below ground — theatres, readings, book launches. Missiles often land before sirens can warn. 2/
Poet and filmmaker Iryna Tsilyk read about daily life in wartime Kyiv — shopping for wine, comforting a child, and hiding from missiles in one afternoon. 3/