Thread by @ces921

The original thread hit a nerve.

Here’s what I didn’t say — but probably should have:
The 2025 consumer crisis is broader and more dangerous than it looks…

🧵 Follow-up thread:

https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1952743687567360333

Let’s talk about fixed costs.

Rent, insurance, food, and utilities aren’t luxuries.
They’re non-negotiables.

And they’ve all reset permanently higher, not temporarily inflated.

This isn’t just about CPI.
It’s about budget math.

When rent is $2,000, insurance is $800, groceries are $700, and your car loan is 9%, there’s nothing left to cut.

Except hope.

The Fed can’t fix this.
And Congress won’t.
•Rate cuts don’t lower premiums
•Tariffs keep prices sticky
•The deficit kills new stimulus

This time, there is no policy lever that makes life cheaper.

We’re not seeing a crisis.
We’re seeing a stall-out.

No collapse = no rescue.
But the damage is real — just invisible to GDP.

And that’s the most dangerous kind of downturn.

Ask yourself:
Why are 401k hardship withdrawals rising?
Why is BNPL used for groceries now?
Why are credit card delinquencies rising while unemployment stays low?

It’s not vibes. It’s erosion.

What breaks this?

Not inflation.
Not a market crash.

What breaks this is time.
And the slow, grinding disappearance of American solvency from the middle and bottom.

I broke down the structural cost explosion, the policy trap, and 3 possible scenarios in this full memo:
📄 “America’s Silent Depression”
→

Thanks to everyone who shared the original. More to come.open.substack.com/pub/thealethea…