🧵1/ CIT records the highest number of civilians casualties since january 2024 for two months in a Row. Attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972
2/ The situation worsened in July, when 335 people lost their lives, almost 19% more than in June. 2,228 civilians were injured, marking a 13% increase
3/ While an increase in civilian casualties was also observed during last year's summer, the escalation in 2025 is much more severe. The number of fatalities over the two summer months increased by 25% and injuries rose by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year
4/ Indiscriminate force harms several times more civilians in Ukrainian-controlled territory. During June and July this year, four out of every five casualties occurred in these areas
5/ Attacks using small UAVs continue to pose a serious threat to the civilian population. While the situation in Kherson is dire, a significant number of casualties from these attacks have also been reported in Russia’s border regions, particularly in the Belgorod region
6/ The overall rise in casualties results mainly from Russia’s intensified airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. The peak occurred in June, when 160 people were killed and 1,338 were injured by missiles & UAVs. In July, 150 civilians were killed and 1,180 injured in unoccupied Ukraine
7/ The only way to meaningfully reduce civilian casualties in Ukraine is through the delivery of additional air defense systems and the development of effective, low-cost countermeasures against Shahed-type loitering munitions
For those who somehow missed our piece on T-90M MBTs or don't have time for longreads, here are key takeaways from the research👇
🧵1/12
2/ Before T-90M serial production began in 2020, Uralvagonzavod had produced between 120 and 150 original T-90 tanks, along with roughly 280 T-90A models
3/ UVZ managed to preserve its production capacities. At the peak in the 2010s, the plant could produce up to 140 tanks annually, while also manufacturing tank assembly kits
The partial lift of the ban on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has proven life-saving for Kharkiv. Lifting remaining restrictions would provide even greater protection 1/17
🧵👇 notes.citeam.org/lift-the-ban-g…
One month after the start of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv axis, the US has relaxed restrictions on the use of precision weapons against targets on Russian territory, allowing the use of HIMARS MLRS rockets in Russian regions bordering Ukraine 2/17 politico.com/news/2024/05/3…
The debate over the interpretation of the restrictions continues to this day. However, the ban on using ATACMS with a range of 290 km [180 mi] remains in place. The US also specifically prohibited targeting Russian aircraft located on nearby airbases 3/17 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/…
1/7 In Jan. 2023, photos emerged of Russian MT-LB armored vehicles modified with naval anti-aircraft weapons. Different types were identified by different heavy machine gun or autocannon deck mounts. We expect them to be used as self-propelled AA systems notes.citeam.org/tankenstein
2/7 Photos from mid-Jan. 2023 show 3 types of modified vehicles:
- with a 12.7mm DShK M1938 HMG;
- with a 2M-1 twin 12.7mm DShK(M) deck mount;
- with a 2M-7 twin 14.5mm KPV deck mount
3/7 Soon they were used on the frontline, and lost: in February, Ukraine captured a vehicle with a twin 14.5mm mount on an MT-LB chassis near Vuhledar, which likely belonged to the 1st Slavyanskaya Motorized Rifles Brigade (of the former "DPR" troops)
In the past few months, we and other analyst have watched the formation and training of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, first publicly reported by Ukrainian intelligence back in June.
Photo and video evidence shows trains with a Buk air defense system and T-80BV and T-90M tanks. Per Russian Railways database, they are heading deployed from Mulino, 3rd AC's training base, to the Ukrainian border close to Taganrog, Rostov region.
2/5
The 3rd AC personnel, primarily volunteers from a recent recruitment drive in Russia's regions, are reportedly poorly-trained, ill-disciplined and abusive toward locals in Mulino, as reported by @verstka_media here:
Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov was officially announced as commander of Russia's Group of Troops "East" when Shoigu paid a visit to the group's command center
Previously Muradov was in command of Russia's peacekeepers in Karabakh
He was reportedly wounded earlier in this war
Muradov is the third known Russian Group of Troops commander, with Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin in command of Group Center, and Army General Sergey Surovikin — Group South
The groups roughly correspond to peacetime Western, Southern, Central and Eastern military districts
Thanks to another Shoigu visit, we know the name of the commander of Russia's Group of Troops "West" — Andrey Ivanovich Sychevoy
Earlier, our sources named him as the new commander of the Western Military District, which roughly corresponds to Group West