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Yumi🌸 Profile picture
@samuraipips358
Aug 7 • 5 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
What should I do if the market changes?🧵

This question is full of misunderstandings and problems.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 I have received this question many times, but first, on what basis do you judge that the market has changed? The true essence of what the questioner wants to know is probably, "What should I do if this strategy stops making a profit?".

In that sense, if the strategy truly had an edge to begin with, it would take a very long period to determine that the edge has been lost.
This is because a large sample size is required to determine the disappearance of that edge.
And, whether the strategy truly had an edge in the first place can also only be known through a large sample size.

In other words, the basic premise is that whether a strategy has an edge can only be known through a large sample size, and whether that edge disappears can also only be known through an even larger sample size.

Now, to return to the initial question, the answer to "What should I do if the market changes?" becomes: "You're going to lose your consistency long before you can tell if the market has truly changed, so worry about that first".

You are worrying early on about something that can only be known after a very long time, but in the first place, it is more difficult to maintain consistency until that point is known, and the very fact that you are worrying about it without understanding this means your consistency is likely very fragile.

This is because if you had tested your strategy's edge beforehand with a very large sample size, you would have already experienced numerous losing streaks and drawdowns, overcome them, and then concluded that an edge exists, so you probably wouldn't feel this kind of anxiety.
3/5
 The question, "What should I do if the market changes?" is as meaningless as the question, "What should I do after I die?".
You just have to live as best you can until then.

You need to remain consistent no matter what, and to remain consistent "no matter what," you need to build trust in the long-term results in advance.
The problem is that you haven't built that long-term trust.

The more you understand probability, the more you are forced to think about large sample sizes and long-term efforts.
If you prepare your strategy and build trust based on that understanding, you will naturally realize that the short-term randomness along the way is what you truly must overcome, and your commitment to the long-term goal of remaining consistent no matter what becomes crucial.
4/5
 "But even so, the market does change, right?"

Of course, the market changes every day.
However, you could also say the market hasn't changed.
They say history repeats itself, but every day is a completely different day.

Depending on where your focus is, it can seem like it's changing or not changing, and both are correct.
That is precisely why you need to have a more long-term perspective and not focus on small-scale randomness.

Even if each splash of water is different, if you look from a distance, it is a wave, it is the ocean, it is the same water.
5/5
 Anxiety and fear about uncertainty are often brought about by that short-term perspective.

What is required of us traders is a long-term perspective and maintaining consistency within it.

What you should worry about is not whether your strategy's effectiveness will be invalidated, but whether you can truly maintain consistency for such a long period.

Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.

E-book
payhip.com/YumiSakura/col…

Paperback
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
a.co/d/fXmRhIa

【Trading Psychology】
a.co/d/d0QJMxK

Hope these insights help your trading journey😊

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More from @samuraipips358

Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 8
For those who feel anxious after entry 🧵

Take a screenshot before entry.
Do not focus on the outcome, but instead focus on whether you are handling the information given at that moment appropriately.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 Looking at a completed chart in hindsight and saying “enter here and exit here” is easy.
But we traders must always make decisions without knowing the outcome.

Precisely because the outcome is always unknown, you must handle the information given at that moment appropriately and leave the subsequent result to randomness.
However, if your strategy truly has an edge, repeating that decision will bring out that edge.

You do not need to worry about an outcome you can never know in advance; you only need to care whether you handled the information already given appropriately.
3/5
 Take a screenshot before entry.

Regardless of the result, if in hindsight you can say “this was absolutely a point to take,” then it is a good trade.
Repeat those trades.

If not, examine why you took that entry and what you were thinking at the time.

“It’s not in the rules, but I feel I’ll miss it if I don’t enter now.”
“It’s not in the rules, but other traders said now is a chance.”
“It’s not in the rules, but the news looks like it will move the chart, so I’ll enter.”
…and so on.

How much of your desire, hope, or prediction has crept into that entry?
Was it truly a trade that followed the rules?
What thinking habits do you have?

Those records are precisely what drive true improvement for you.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 6
The job of trading is to "wait"🧵

Many people think, "I need to trade to make money," and always want to have a position, but trading always comes with risk.
You must trade only when it is truly necessary, and for that, you need to "wait".
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 While prior preparation is crucial in trading, the very act of turning that preparation into action is none other than "waiting".

Practically speaking, the only active action you take is the "click," but what kind of click that becomes is determined by the passive action of "waiting".

You prepare thoroughly in advance, have a strategy with an edge, create solid scenarios, and decide what to do under what circumstances.
Putting these into practice is done through the action of "waiting".
3/5
 Risk is always a part of trading, and it's not as if you can win every single trade you take.

When you take a trade that you shouldn't, you then have to make up for the unnecessary loss incurred, which degrades the performance of your actual strategy.

You must repeatedly trade "only" at points that are favorable to you.
Even then, losses will still occur, but the losses that occur in those instances function as a cost.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 5
The market is unique, but it repeats🧵

A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, that has absolutely nothing to do with repeatability, consistency, or the functioning of probability.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, we are not trading to predict a chart that is identical to the past.

Essentially, we are continuously betting on the "reasons" we can read from the chart.

For example,
Let's say you have a rule: in a specific higher timeframe market environment, when a double bottom forms at a specific support line on a lower timeframe, the entry point is the break of the recent high, and the stop loss is set just below the support line.

This means that the specific support line was tested twice, but the majority of traders rejected transacting at prices below it,
and you are betting on the possibility of a rise fueled by drawing in various orders, such as...
① traders who place buy orders after confirming the support line has held by the break of the recent high,
② traders participating in what they see as a pullback buy on the higher timeframe after confirming the bounce off the support line,
③ the buy orders from the stop losses of traders who had been selling in anticipation of a break below the support line.

This is trading the same chart pattern, but it essentially means you are not betting on the chart pattern itself, but rather on the "reason" that formed the chart pattern.

In other words, what is important is whether the underlying reason for the formation of that double bottom is consistent, and there is absolutely no need for the shape of the double bottom itself to be a perfect match to the past.

If you don't understand the reasons and only fixate on superficial shapes, you will become inflexible and will continue searching for a strict match with the past, which is absolutely impossible.
3/5
 The same applies to taking profit and cutting losses.

In this case, because your basis is the reason that the support line was tested twice but ultimately did not break, your stop loss goes just below the support line.
You calculate your position size based on the distance in pips to that stop loss, and set the position size as a consistent cost (%) per trade.

Because you are trading "based on a consistent reason" in this way, you are not aiming for a strict match with the past.
It's natural that the stop loss distance in pips will not always be exactly the same, but the risk per trade is still calculated as a consistent percentage, so the same risk is always maintained.
And while the chart's movement before hitting the stop loss is not the same as in the past, consistency is maintained because "the reason for exiting is the same."
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 4
Be a professional🧵

Preparation, understanding risk, building scenarios, buying, selling, waiting, closing positions—in every action a trader takes, you must be a professional.
I do not cut corners in any phase.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 Trading is extremely difficult, and it is not something you can succeed at with a naive mindset.

There is no such thing as a "way for even beginners to make money," and it is necessary to prepare like a professional and to continue acting consistently like a professional over a long period, which means the only way to make money is to become a professional.

Many traders trade without confidence in their strategy, are swayed by the results right in front of them, and cannot execute what they planned in advance.
Furthermore, they don't even have a plan or rules to follow.

What I mean by "Be a professional" here is a matter of your mindset and actions; it is not about whether you have made money, and it is irrelevant whether you are employed by someone or have passed a prop firm challenge.
It is a suggestion to "Be a professional" regardless of whether you are already making money, and this is extremely important.

Probably, the professional athlete you admire was a professional even in their student days.
That's the point.
Professionalism is revealed in preparation, attitude, and every action.
3/5
 First, let's prepare thoroughly.

I understand the feeling of wanting to trade and make money quickly, but using a strategy where you don't even know if it has an edge is gambling itself.

You must deeply understand the strategy you use.
Without understanding, it would be impossible to keep trusting and sticking with that strategy during periods like an unavoidable losing streak.

Preparation is extremely important in trading, and the more solid your preparation is, the more you will be able to wait appropriately, and it will also become possible to remain consistent while maintaining a long-term perspective.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 2
You can only act by believing in positive expected value🧵

To maintain consistent actions, you have no choice but to "believe."
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 Short-term outcomes are heavily influenced by randomness, so we must continue consistent actions over the long term.

The reason you abandon a strategy with positive expected value midway is that you don't fully believe in it.
Since the future is uncertain and no one can guarantee the future returns of that strategy, all we can do is "believe."

That's why it's crucial how you've built that trust—such as the sample size you used to test or "practice" the strategy in advance, or how many years you've maintained consistent actions.
3/5
 I don't think I'll definitely win the next trade.
Conversely, I don't think I'll definitely lose either.

I always consider that the outcome right in front of me is unpredictable, and that has become my natural state of mind.

However, I trust in the positive expected value of my own strategy and actions.
This trust is firmly established from both logical reasoning and experience.

Since I can consistently trade at advantageous points where orders concentrate while always controlling risk, I believe it's impossible for my funds to simply disappear if I continue repeating these asymmetric bets into the future.
And on top of that trust, long-term consistency is born, and that consistent action further strengthens my trust in the strategy, creating a positive spiral.
Read 5 tweets
Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Jul 31
Most of a trade is already done with pre-preparation🧵

Whether the chart goes up or down, it doesn't matter to me either way.
No matter what happens, the actions are already prepared, and those actions have an edge.
🧵1/5 Image
2/5
 In trading, pre-preparation is extremely important.
Pre-preparation includes testing or practicing the strategy in various ways, but the pre-preparation I'm talking about here is building scenarios in advance.

Some people might know this because I always write scenarios on my blog on Sundays, but I create scenarios in advance like "If this happens next, I'll do this."
Just because I write them on the blog on Sundays doesn't mean I only build scenarios on Sundays.
Every day as the chart updates, I update the scenarios like "If this happens next, I'll do this."

By building scenarios in advance, it becomes clear what you're waiting for, making it easier to calmly take the necessary actions when the time comes.
This eliminates hesitation, reluctance, and regret, allowing you to repeatedly execute high-quality trades.
3/5
 Since I build scenarios in advance, it doesn't matter at all how the chart moves.
Whether it goes up or down, either is fine.

If a buying opportunity comes, I'll buy; if a selling opportunity comes, I'll sell—that's all there is to it.
Even after holding a position, whether it goes up or down, it doesn't matter.

Of course, if I've entered a long position, going up would be profitable, but whether it goes down or up, either is fine.
Even after entry, there are scenarios like "If this happens, I'll do this," and as long as I execute according to them, whether it ends in a stop-loss or not, it functions as an appropriate cost, so there's no problem at all.

That's because I fully understand and believe that by repeatedly taking those exact actions, profits will ultimately remain.
I don't think about the result of a single trade.
I understand that repeatedly taking those actions is my sole responsibility and job.
Read 5 tweets

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