Thread by @GrahamTAllison

1/ Wisdom from the Sage of Omaha.

2/ As the picture suggests, I had the good fortune on Tuesday afternoon to spend several hours with Warren Buffett and his colleague, Ted Weschler. More than a decade ago, he reached out to me to begin a conversation about nuclear danger. And it has been my great good fortune that we have continued talking on a regular basis since then.

3/ Warren Buffett is a great man—indeed a quintessential great American: extraordinarily accomplished; humble; grateful; optimistic; even wise. He has the unique distinction of having made more money for more people than any other individual in history.

4/ If one had had the good fortune to be given $1 worth of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965 when his investment firm was created, they would have $55,000 today. To say it again: he has multiplied investors money by 55,000 times.

5/ Over six decades, he has taken an annual salary of $100,000 a year; invested his own money in the firm; and accumulated a fortune of many billions of dollars—almost all of which he has given away or established plans to give away. He and his wife live in the same house in Omaha he bought in 1958.

6/ Buffett has thought long and hard about nuclear danger. In part, this reflects the fact that he came of age during the Cold War when the Sword of Damocles hung over everyone’s consciousness. As an investor, he has demonstrated a remarkable talent in assessing risks—and opportunities. This led him to develop as part of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio of companies his reinsurance business.

7/ Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group buys insurance policies from banks and insurance companies who sell insurance to households and businesses. He has demonstrated a particular skill in placing bets on what investors call “fat tail risks” and “cat bonds” like insurance against hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, and other catastrophes. This requires him to analyze the full spectrum of variables that could affect what happens. And among these extreme risks, he has taken a special interest in nuclear weapons and the possibility of a nuclear war.

8/ Despite the fact that he and I are both congenital optimists, he is becoming increasingly worried about the risks of war and even a nuclear war. In our discussion of the wonder of what I’ve written about as the amazing “80, 80, and 9” of international security, he offered his view that on the current trajectory, all 3 are at risk over the next generation. I agree. (80, 80, and 9 are the answers to three fundamental questions about the international security order that almost everyone on Earth has enjoyed over our lifetimes. If you can identify the question to which each is the answer, then you’ll have the big picture about the international security order in which you have lived your whole life.)

9/ Warren will celebrate his 95th birthday in August and hand over leadership of his amazing company to Greg Abel at the end of this year. But his mind remains laser sharp. He intends to continue coming to the office every day. And in addition to focusing on his business, he is actively thinking about what he and the rest of us can do to extend the longest peace, and the most remarkable period in which nuclear weapons have not been used in war, that human beings have enjoyed in the history of planet Earth.