Crémieux Profile picture
Aug 7 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Trump administration has officially taken a stance against debanking.

That means that, soon enough, no more Americans will be deprived of being able to hold a bank account because of the opinions they hold.

Americans will be free to think independently again🧵 Image
The executive order begins with some background:

Americans, often at the behest of government officials, have been subject to the loss of access to financial services.

That often meant having no access to bank accounts, debit and credit cards, investment tools, and so on. Image
And then it gets to the meat:

We want to stop this, because it is anti-freedom.

Financial institutions should not be able to stop Americans from holding whatever views they want to. It's not their business, so they're being asked to stay out of it. Image
You may ask:

Doesn't this infringe on banks' rights to not do business with people they don't want to?

"No"

This is like the situation with universities and affirmative action: institutions are being asked not to discriminate if they want to interface with the government.
If you want the government to guarantee your loans under its lending programs?

Follow the government's rules.

If you want the government to issue taxpayer-funded grants for research?

Follow the government's rules.

These institutions can opt out, but they would lose out.
So, what happens first?

Firstly, federal banking regulators will tell financial institutions to remove all material in their guidance that leads to debanking.

Secondly, they will rescind regulations that encourage or expressly permit debanking. Image
Next, the Small Business Administration will give financial institutions notice.

The notices are to identify all debanked persons and to reach out to them to tell them they were debanked and that they can now have their accounts reinstated. Image
The Order instructs Duffy and Hassett to plan to do more, which just means "You know what to do" and a plan was already developed. This just lets the public know whatever plan they came up with has the go-ahead.

Regulators are also ordered to review and punish debankers. Image
In effect, what has been called for here is for institutions to stop the practice of debanking, and to expose themselves for debanking.

The regulators will also review their books, and if there's noncompliance with ending the practice of debanking, the government will prosecute.
Debanking is a scourge, and this EO is the first step in ending it.

If you want to read it, you can find it here: whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
Oh and, NB:

The administration knows who to go after, because many financial institutions attempted to debank Trump himself!

And plenty of the people in his administration were also targeted for harassment.

It's obvious how this is going to proceed.
NB II:

Yes, this will stop payment processors from denying service to platforms like Steam and sites like itch(dot)io.

This EO is going after the whole concept of "reputational risk".

The admin added a fact sheet that includes some debanking examples.

It's pretty clear that they'll be applying pressure towards AUPs via partner banks, the CFPB, limiting offboarding debanking, and that they have a lot of options to make this more expansive. Image
I would suggest they

- Push prudential regulators to "flow down" non-discrimination through sponsor banks: strip reputational risk from exams and bake objective, risk-based non-discrimination clauses into third-party/fintech contracts, binding processor that rely on those banks.

- Use SBA hooks like what this first EO details.

- Coordinate a Treasury-led plan that recommends prudential guidance about sponsor-bank contracts, FTC UDAP enforcement for nonbank processors, and maybe do a Hill push to amend fair access to explicitly cover card networks and processors, not just banks. Current text already covers payment card networks, so it's easy to extend to money transmitters/payment facilitators.

- Review and extend fair access concepts at the OCC and make them sticky downstream. A revived OCC fair access posture forces partner banks to keep serving lawful merchants and to require processors on their rails to do the same absent bona fide risk.

- Do a procurement squeeze. Condition federal payment vendors and agency merchants on non-discrimination commitments. An EO back in March already forces agencies onto electronic payments. That reaches a subset of big processors doing federal work and a larger subset connected to it, but doesn't bind the whole market.

Fast fact sheet is here: whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…

And yes, the original EO includes FDIC, because it's a FSOC member agency. Imagine a bank losing FDIC coverage because they just really want to debank someone. That would be very unwise.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Aug 9
What happens when you provide students with subsidized or free meals?

Lots of studies have been published on this topic, but somehow the field hasn't reached a consensus.

Why?

Maybe because there's clearly publication bias. When accounting for it, effects fall towards zero: Image
If you just look at all the effect sizes in the literature, you might start seeing the issue.

Notice the long tail of positive results? Image
That tail shows up pretty much regardless of the details.

Universal or means-tested program? Outcome type? Meal type? Causal inference methodology?

Irrelevant: there's still a positivity bias. Image
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Aug 7
Trump is about to sign a historic memorandum.

The memo is going to change how Republicans operate in a way that is almost unprecedented.

In a few short hours, Republicans will start embracing the power of DATA to undermine their political enemies.🧵 Image
What do I mean?

Let today's memo be an example.

Today, the Trump administration is going after universities that have feign compliance with the Supreme Court's ruling in SFFA v. Harvard.

By that I mean, they've continued practicing affirmative action like NYU and Columbia.Image
How?

Through a data collection mechanism called the Integrated Postecondary Education Data System, better known as IPEDS. Image
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Aug 6
There's been a long COVID-related rise in self-reported disability.

Notice how the rise starting in mid-2020 mostly has to do with an increase in difficulty remembering things?

That's the brain fog symptom everyone became aware of. Image
Importantly, in both the ACS—which lacks specific long COVID questions—and in the Household Pulse Survey—which added them in 2022—there's a curious demographic concentration of, first, new disability, and second, long COVID reports:

Young, female, Hispanic, and poorly-educated. Image
The timeline for long COVID as a meme is basically:

Spring/Summer 2020: Patient groups, the media mainstream the idea. Survivor Corps, Body Politic, NYT articles, Mount Sinai's dedicated post-COVID clinic, Ed Yong's Atlantic article.Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 6
More than 5.6 BILLION people took the COVID vaccines.

If there was a mass dying wave, miscarriages and stillbirths, cardiac issues, or anything else, we have more than enough data to show those things.

But they never happened!

They're not real, they're a neurotic delusion.
We have so many person-years of data, that if there's ANY issue, we almost-certainly would have already detected it.

Couple this with the fact that pharmacovigilance has gotten much better over time, and big side effects are just a laughable proposition. Image
If you want to learn more about this topic, go check out my latest article: cremieux.xyz/p/bad-drugs-ge…
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Aug 4
Stats on the homeless population are abysmal.

One-in-two has a disability and/or a traumatic brain injury. One-in-five has psychosis. One-in-ten is schizophrenic. One-in-four is just straight-up mentally retarded.

These facts have major consequences. Image
As I noted recently, the White House wants to bring back involuntary commitment.

They're probably in the right to call for that, since so many homeless are incapable of taking care of themselves, or at the very least, not hurting others.

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This risk can be through no fault of their own.

Some people are mentally downtrodden because of injuries to the head.

Among the homeless, over half have suffered a TBI, compared to 12% of Americans. Just over 20% have a TBI-related disability, compared to about 2% of Americans.
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Jul 31
Does exercising make you smarter?

Lots of people definitely believe it does, but while it might clear your head, it doesn't boost cognitive ability in actual trials.

The appearance that it does is due to poorly-controlled studies and publication bias.Image
So, this is what we have:

1. Exercise does not affect the level of cognitive ability, and

2. (Self-reported) exercise does not affect seem to relate to rates of cognitive decline.Image
You should exercise, and if you're like most people, you should exercise more than you currently do.

Go touch grass. It's good for you.

But don't expect it to make you smarter, and don't expect it to slow your cognitive aging.
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