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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Aug 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Trump is so predictable.
His "threat" of sanctions on Russia was merely an invitation to a one-on-one meeting with Putin & a way to block sanctions on Russia demanded by 85 senators.
Now Trump has set the stage for his selling out of Ukraine behind its back. /1
Ukraine will be given no seat or voice.
Putin will make no real concessions, possibly limiting warfare where Ukraine has an advantage, which Trump will try to enforce on Ukraine.
Trump is likely to de facto accept Russia's current occupation of Ukrainian territories. /2
Trump has already given up any claim on Ukrainian territorial integrity.
He has stopped all US aid to Ukraine & all US complaints about Russia violating international law.
He wants to end Western sanctions on Russia, but the remaining West can block that. /3
EU, the UK, Canada & Japan & Ukraine need to prepare actions to make Trump's possible gifts to Putin ineffective:
No easing of any sanctions on Russia, but a further hardening of them.
Sharp joint public statements.
Fast arming of Ukraine. /4

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 7
A few observations on Trump's trade war:
1. There is no justification for Trump's trade aggression.
The cause of the US current account deficit is its excessive budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP a year, leading to a public debt of currently 124% of GDP properly counted. /1
2. The US has not been "ripped off" by everybody but benefitted from benevolent international inflows of some $32 trillion to finance thanks to its exorbitant privilege of the USD & US treasuries, seen as safe assets. /2
3. Trump's tariffs are not "reciprocal" but unilateral aggression against allies & friends.
4. The tariffs are enormously high at a current average of 18.3% (Yale budget lab), the highest since the 1930s, rising from 2.5%. /3
Read 11 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 6
Trump appears to be guided by the mercantilism of Jean Baptiste Colbert, the minister of finance of Louis XIV from 1665-1683 who revised the tariff system and expanded industrial policy. /1
Colbert's idea as that the state should rule in the economic realm & that the interests of the state as identified by the king were superior to everyone else. /2
After half a year of Trump's uninhibited madness, we must regretfully note that the US has no effective checks or balances. The mad king is allowed to do whatever he wants. /3
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 3
How Trump's tariffs are likely to affect US consumer prices.
Trump's tariffs have already started causing higher consumer prices in the US, but only partially.
Importers have purchased large stocks in Q1 & appear to raise prices only for new imports. /1
The evidence from Trump's tariff hikes last time suggests that eventually importers pass on all the cost of the higher tariffs to end consumers.
This means that tariff hikes are not single events but a process of rising prices as previously imported stocks run down. /2
That is a gradual inflationary process.
The goods inflation caused by the tariffs will be balanced by the deceleration in economic activity they will also cause.
Unemployment may rise, but salaries will be supported by the decline in the foreign labor force. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 2
Trump's trade war probably qualifies as the greatest madness in economic policy in a developed country after WWII:
1. All decisions are made by one single person (Trump).
2. No principles are applied.
3. No economic rationale or theory.
4. All is based on Trump's emotions. /1
5. Many tariffs are very high, so the economic damage will be substantial.
6. There is no coordination of the tariffs so, for example, the US car industry may be decimated (@FT).
7. The only two countries Trump treat with respect are China & Russia, the purported enemies. /2
@FT 8. Trump's extraordinary rudeness to most democratic & friendly countries will have lasting anti-American consequences.
9. So far, the lesson appears to be: Either flatter Trump no end (EU & Pakistan), stand up against Trump (China) or pay him personally (Qatar). /3
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 1
Observations on Trump's tariffs:
1. They are completely unjustified. The US balance of payments problem is an excessive US budget deficit.
2. They are completely arbitrary, entirely dependent on Trump's emotions.
3. They are high & will damage the global economy but most the US. /1
4. The Trump tariffs are not reciprocal but unilateral & they are not negotiated.
5. The higher the tariffs are, the more exemptions. The Brazilian 50% tariff is accompanied by 700 exemptions for the main goods traded.
6. The legal basis of these tariffs is dubious (IEEPA). /2
7. Since the only basis for the tariffs are Trump's statements, it is hard to know what the actual tariffs are or for how long they will last.
8. Trump loves to impose uncertainty on business because he breeds fear. Therefore, the uncertainty will remain. No stabilization. /3
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jul 16
Trump's trade policy makes no economic sense & the biggest loser is likely to be the US.
1. Trump only talks about trade deficits, while the relevant measure is current account balance. The US has a big service surplus, though still a current account deficit. /1
2. The US can have its large current account deficit (& also a huge budget deficit) because the rest of the world has been happy to finance it, buying $ & US treasuries, which have been seen as perfectly safe, but now Trump is undermining the credibility of all that. /2
3. First of all, Trump knows nothing of economics & none of his subordinates is allowed to correct him. Trump's stupidity, ignorance & authoritarianism are likely to cause an economic catastrophe in the US sooner or later. /3
Read 11 tweets

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