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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 11

The ability to execute exactly what you’ve planned is the ultimate skill🧵

On weekends, anyone can look at the charts with a clear head.
The real challenge begins when the market starts moving—when you must carry out your pre-defined plan without being swayed by the price action.
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A plan is meaningless if you can’t execute it as planned.

As traders, we can analyze calmly and speak with reason when the chart is static.
But once the market is live, emotions like greed and fear emerge, and calm execution becomes much harder.

This stems from a flawed belief—the tendency to place value on individual wins and losses.
And it’s precisely this belief and thought process that makes trading so difficult.

To those outside trading, “executing a plan as planned” might sound easy.
In reality, it is an advanced skill in itself.

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Acquiring this skill requires layered understanding and experience.

For example:

- Understanding short-term randomness
- Transforming the value system from placing worth on immediate wins and losses to valuing a consistent process through probabilistic thinking
- Shifting perspective from short-term to long-term
- Developing the eye to identify entry conditions from an unfolding chart with an unknown outcome
- Preparing thoroughly to believe in your strategy and rules without doubt

Without these, even something as seemingly basic as executing a plan as planned becomes impossible.

Failure to execute is often mistaken for an “emotional problem,” but in reality it’s a skill problem—rooted in a lack of understanding and experience.
Emotions are merely the output of an unchanged value system regarding wins and losses.

Through understanding and experience, your beliefs and thought processes evolve.
Your actions, reinforced through long-term repetition, become increasingly automated—ultimately forming a skill.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 9

The golden pattern that guarantees failure🧵

① Cannot cut losses
② Taking profits too early
③ Deciding position size based on emotion

In short, do the opposite.
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Trading is a world of probability.

To compound profits, you must repeat "conditions with an edge" and let the law of large numbers work over the long term.
But all three of these behaviors destroy that edge.

- Cannot cut losses → your equity curve plunges on large losses, and your statistical edge disappears.
- Taking profits too early → you throw away gains your rules would have captured, and your risk-reward ratio breaks down.
- Deciding position size based on emotion → your risk of ruin rises, the strategy’s original risk-reward is distorted, and long-term operation becomes impossible.

In other words, these three acts do not "make probability your ally" but rather "make probability your enemy."

3/5
Even if your strategy and rules have an edge, if you keep repeating these behaviors, the strategy’s edge will never be realized.

These behaviors arise from the short-term urges of "wanting to make money" and "not wanting to lose," and when you prioritize those urges, probability stops working and instead ensures failure.

Driven by these short-term urges and emotions, many traders keep repeating these three behaviors, creating consistency in these "actions that disadvantage you," which turns the law of large numbers against you—so the more you do it, the more certainly you will fail.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 8

For those who feel anxious after entry 🧵

Take a screenshot before entry.
Do not focus on the outcome, but instead focus on whether you are handling the information given at that moment appropriately.
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Looking at a completed chart in hindsight and saying “enter here and exit here” is easy.
But we traders must always make decisions without knowing the outcome.

Precisely because the outcome is always unknown, you must handle the information given at that moment appropriately and leave the subsequent result to randomness.
However, if your strategy truly has an edge, repeating that decision will bring out that edge.

You do not need to worry about an outcome you can never know in advance; you only need to care whether you handled the information already given appropriately.

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Take a screenshot before entry.

Regardless of the result, if in hindsight you can say “this was absolutely a point to take,” then it is a good trade.
Repeat those trades.

If not, examine why you took that entry and what you were thinking at the time.

“It’s not in the rules, but I feel I’ll miss it if I don’t enter now.”
“It’s not in the rules, but other traders said now is a chance.”
“It’s not in the rules, but the news looks like it will move the chart, so I’ll enter.”
…and so on.

How much of your desire, hope, or prediction has crept into that entry?
Was it truly a trade that followed the rules?
What thinking habits do you have?

Those records are precisely what drive true improvement for you.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 7

What should I do if the market changes?🧵

This question is full of misunderstandings and problems.
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I have received this question many times, but first, on what basis do you judge that the market has changed? The true essence of what the questioner wants to know is probably, "What should I do if this strategy stops making a profit?".

In that sense, if the strategy truly had an edge to begin with, it would take a very long period to determine that the edge has been lost.
This is because a large sample size is required to determine the disappearance of that edge.
And, whether the strategy truly had an edge in the first place can also only be known through a large sample size.

In other words, the basic premise is that whether a strategy has an edge can only be known through a large sample size, and whether that edge disappears can also only be known through an even larger sample size.

Now, to return to the initial question, the answer to "What should I do if the market changes?" becomes: "You're going to lose your consistency long before you can tell if the market has truly changed, so worry about that first".

You are worrying early on about something that can only be known after a very long time, but in the first place, it is more difficult to maintain consistency until that point is known, and the very fact that you are worrying about it without understanding this means your consistency is likely very fragile.

This is because if you had tested your strategy's edge beforehand with a very large sample size, you would have already experienced numerous losing streaks and drawdowns, overcome them, and then concluded that an edge exists, so you probably wouldn't feel this kind of anxiety.

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The question, "What should I do if the market changes?" is as meaningless as the question, "What should I do after I die?".
You just have to live as best you can until then.

You need to remain consistent no matter what, and to remain consistent "no matter what," you need to build trust in the long-term results in advance.
The problem is that you haven't built that long-term trust.

The more you understand probability, the more you are forced to think about large sample sizes and long-term efforts.
If you prepare your strategy and build trust based on that understanding, you will naturally realize that the short-term randomness along the way is what you truly must overcome, and your commitment to the long-term goal of remaining consistent no matter what becomes crucial.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 6

The job of trading is to "wait"🧵

Many people think, "I need to trade to make money," and always want to have a position, but trading always comes with risk.
You must trade only when it is truly necessary, and for that, you need to "wait".
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While prior preparation is crucial in trading, the very act of turning that preparation into action is none other than "waiting".

Practically speaking, the only active action you take is the "click," but what kind of click that becomes is determined by the passive action of "waiting".

You prepare thoroughly in advance, have a strategy with an edge, create solid scenarios, and decide what to do under what circumstances.
Putting these into practice is done through the action of "waiting".

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Risk is always a part of trading, and it's not as if you can win every single trade you take.

When you take a trade that you shouldn't, you then have to make up for the unnecessary loss incurred, which degrades the performance of your actual strategy.

You must repeatedly trade "only" at points that are favorable to you.
Even then, losses will still occur, but the losses that occur in those instances function as a cost.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Aug 5

The market is unique, but it repeats🧵

A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, that has absolutely nothing to do with repeatability, consistency, or the functioning of probability.
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A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, we are not trading to predict a chart that is identical to the past.

Essentially, we are continuously betting on the "reasons" we can read from the chart.

For example,
Let's say you have a rule: in a specific higher timeframe market environment, when a double bottom forms at a specific support line on a lower timeframe, the entry point is the break of the recent high, and the stop loss is set just below the support line.

This means that the specific support line was tested twice, but the majority of traders rejected transacting at prices below it,
and you are betting on the possibility of a rise fueled by drawing in various orders, such as...
① traders who place buy orders after confirming the support line has held by the break of the recent high,
② traders participating in what they see as a pullback buy on the higher timeframe after confirming the bounce off the support line,
③ the buy orders from the stop losses of traders who had been selling in anticipation of a break below the support line.

This is trading the same chart pattern, but it essentially means you are not betting on the chart pattern itself, but rather on the "reason" that formed the chart pattern.

In other words, what is important is whether the underlying reason for the formation of that double bottom is consistent, and there is absolutely no need for the shape of the double bottom itself to be a perfect match to the past.

If you don't understand the reasons and only fixate on superficial shapes, you will become inflexible and will continue searching for a strict match with the past, which is absolutely impossible.

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The same applies to taking profit and cutting losses.

In this case, because your basis is the reason that the support line was tested twice but ultimately did not break, your stop loss goes just below the support line.
You calculate your position size based on the distance in pips to that stop loss, and set the position size as a consistent cost (%) per trade.

Because you are trading "based on a consistent reason" in this way, you are not aiming for a strict match with the past.
It's natural that the stop loss distance in pips will not always be exactly the same, but the risk per trade is still calculated as a consistent percentage, so the same risk is always maintained.
And while the chart's movement before hitting the stop loss is not the same as in the past, consistency is maintained because "the reason for exiting is the same."

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