Adam Carlson Profile picture
Aug 10 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
*clears throat* allow me 🧵

1) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Ds (IDC) & Rs in state Sen, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who were sexually abused as kids Image
2) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

3) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)
4) To balance the budget, he refused to increase taxes on the mega-rich, instead cutting funding to public schools (especially in low income areas in NYC) — and he called for cuts to Medicaid as well

5) He cut funding for CUNY (and wanted to cut it even more before he resigned)
6) His campaign & supporting super PAC are heavily financed by big real estate & billionaires — many of whom backed Trump (Ackman, Langone, etc.)

7) His campaign team spreads Trump-style lies and then turns off their replies like a bunch of cowards
8) Trump could pressure Cuomo to do his bidding by holding the DOJ’s investigation (over him allegedly lying to Congress over nursing home COVID-related deaths) over him — and they are clearly still chatting on the phone about the mayor’s race!
9) He still struggles to say “Mamdani” correctly

10) He doesn’t actually live here

And that’s if we totally ignore the *many substantiated* sexual harassment allegations and the COVID nursing home death scandal, which are — of course — disgusting and horrifying.

Need any more?

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More from @admcrlsn

Aug 10
Per Yahoo/YouGov poll, a huge share of Harris voters & indies have a negative view of Dems but will vote for them in 2026:

Overall:
🔴View of Ds: -20
🔵Generic Ballot: D+7

Harris Voters:
🟢View of Ds: +41
🔵Generic Ballot: D+86

Indies:
🔴View of Ds: -39
🔵Generic Ballot: D+20 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
🚨 🚨 A new NYC mayor general election poll from @ZenithPolls (me) & Public Progress (@amitsinghbagga) — the most comprehensive poll of the race — finds Mamdani with a commanding 28-point lead in a five-way race, and getting >50% head-to-head vs Cuomo

Let’s dive in, shall we? 🧵 Image
Here’s the link to the topline and crosstabs (among registered voters and likely voters): docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Here’s the link to the full report: docs.google.com/presentation/d…

Before we get into the results, I want to start with what sets this poll apart from others + methodology Image
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And now the moment you’ve all been waiting for.

Among likely voters:

5-way vote: Mamdani leads by 28 pts

Mamdani leads by 39 pts if only Cuomo drops out

Mamdani leads by 26 pts if only Adams drops out

Mamdani leads by 27 pts H2H vs Adams

Mamdani leads by 12 pts H2H vs Cuomo Image
Read 24 tweets
Jul 15
Ah yes HarrisX, the same pollster that had Cuomo up 52-28 in the final round over Mamdani the day before the Democratic primary.

Only a 36-point miss, so close! Image
Just gonna leave this right here:

semafor.com/article/12/19/…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
New poll from Gallup:

30% say immigration should be reduced (down from 55% last year)

79% say immigration is a good thing for the country (all-time high) and 17% say it’s a bad thing (all-time low)

Pathways to citizenship ⬆️

Measures to deter/reverse illegal immigration ⬇️ Image
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35% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, including 21% strongly approving.

62% disapprove of his handling of immigration, including 45% strongly disapproving.

45% of independents *strongly disapprove* of how he’s handling it. Image
Can someone check on @mattyglesias please
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3
Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

Remember this day.

Remember these names.

🧵
**AZ-01: DAVID SCHWEIKERT**

Northeast Maricopa County

2024 House: 🔴 R+3.8
2022 House: 🔴 R+0.9

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+3.1
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+1.5

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2018-2024: 🔵 -2.7

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 19% Image
**AZ-06: JUAN CISCOMANI**

Southeast AZ & Tucson Suburbs

2024 House: 🔴 R+2.5
2022 House: 🔴 R+1.4

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+0.7
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+0.1

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2022-2024: 🔵 -2.9

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 23% Image
Read 17 tweets
Jun 26
If this is true, barring an act of god Eric Adams has zero path to victory in November.
Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers

But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot

With Sliwa in, it’s Joever
Mamdani should run through the tape regardless and take absolutely nothing for granted, and work to maximize the size of his citywide mandate.

But…I mean…the math is just not there to take him down in a 3 or 4-way race.
Read 4 tweets

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