Thread by @ArturRehi

Putin is using Trump to achieve what he cannot accomplish militarily. The meeting in Alaska will most likely take place without Zelensky’s participation, because if Zelensky accepts the invitation and attends, the Russian side will refuse to take part. From Russia’s
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perspective, the Zelensky government is illegitimate, and a meeting between Putin and Zelensky would undermine that propaganda. According to insiders, Putin wants to secure control over Donbas, gain recognition of Crimea’s annexation, and achieve the removal of sanctions.
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Any territorial concessions would violate Ukraine’s constitution, and the Ukrainian government is unlikely to agree to them. Alaska was not chosen by accident—Putin fears his plane could be shot down by Ukrainians. Flying to Alaska via the North Pole offers him a route with
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fewer perceived risks. It’s worth recalling that Putin is under an arrest warrant and is on the international list of war criminals. Earlier, Italy was proposed as a venue, but the Russian side refused, claiming Italy is too close an ally of Ukraine. The U.S., however,
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apparently does not see itself as a close friend of Ukraine and has no issue hosting the meeting in Alaska. I would also like to remind those who think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is something very far away—the only thing separating Russia and the United States
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is just a few miles across the Bering Strait. In any case, this will be yet another meeting where Ukraine is pressured into concessions without any demands being made of Russia. Putin has said he is ready to sign an agreement on a ceasefire and peace maintenance, but every
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agreement Russia has ever signed, it has broken. Appeasing dictators has never worked—it didn’t work with Hitler in 1938, it didn’t work with Russia in the Chechen War, it didn’t work with Ukraine when it signed the Budapest Memorandum and gave up its nuclear arsenal in
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exchange for security guarantees. It won’t work now either. Since the war began in 2014 and Crimea was occupied, Ukraine and Russia have held more than 200 rounds of negotiations—and every time, the Russian side has proven one thing: it seeks only one goal—the continuation
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of the war and the complete takeover of Ukraine. Any negotiations with Putin are simply his attempt to delay new sanctions and continue the war. This works with Trump, and Putin will keep up the charade as long as it remains effective. Although Ukraine has declared its
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readiness to negotiate—as it has always done—it does not expect them to succeed and continues its campaign to destroy Russian logistics. Recent strikes have again focused primarily on supply lines: several important railway hubs and trains have been destroyed, attacks
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on fuel depots and oil refineries have resumed, causing serious damage to Russia. This is another reason why Putin insists on negotiations—he hopes the U.S. will pressure Ukraine to once again ban strikes on oil refineries.
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We’ve seen this all before, and the result will be the same: no deal will be reached.
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