Thread by @GrahamTAllison

1/ Bets from my hazy crystal ball: Fast Track to a Trump-Xi Summit that announces a “new partnership”

2/ Three points from my appearance on last Friday’s CNBC show The China Connection.
cnbc.com/video/2025/08/…

3/ (1) Betting on Tariff Truce Extension and Fall Summit: “If I were betting, I’d say the odds are very high that before Tuesday, August 12, he’ll announce an extension of the tariff truce and plans for a summit with President Xi, possibly to be held at the APEC summit in the fall, promising progress on trade, tariffs, export controls, and geopolitics. My hazy crystal ball suggests that Trump will announce a new ‘great partnership’ aimed at shifting the tone and character of the US-China relationship in a more positive direction.”

4/ (2) Trump Treats China Differently Due to Its Strength: “The Trump team learned from the first round of big tariffs that when Trump imposed 145% tariffs, President Xi hit back with 125% tariffs—essentially an embargo, the only such response in the world. More strikingly, when the US tightened some supply chain controls, China directly choked off a half-dozen critical items, including rare earth magnets the US cannot function without. In this situation, China has as strong a hand as the US, maybe stronger—and President Trump treats those he sees as equals differently from those he sees as weaker."

5/ (3) Xi Has a Plan for the Coming Turbulence: “I think he believes he has a strong hand and a plan. He knows President Trump from the first term and has assessed him. He didn’t start the trade, tariff, or export control conflicts—but is nonetheless prepared for them. Going forward, he’s prepared for turbulence and believes he has enough freedom and influence to restore a stable relationship with the US. And he wants a constructive relationship with the US.”