Clément Molin Profile picture
Aug 11 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
‼️Russian 🇷🇺 breakthrough has been confirmed, ukrainian "New Donbass Line" bypassed in the most vulnerable point.

Russian assault platoons are rushing behind ukrainian lines. They can now turn west and threathen Dobropilla or continue North and Kramatorsk will be in danger.Image
Map from @Deepstate_UA which confirmed rumours...

The situation is not bad, it is catastrophic. Image
To explain, russian forces used hundreds of motorcycles in the last few weeks to slowly gain positions behind ukrainian troops.

They progress very fast behing the lines, establish positions and wait for reinforcements. It is very fast and very efficient....
Here is what usually happens to these guys. They all die. Thousands if not ten of thousands of them have been killed, mainly by drone.

But when there is no more drone team, behind the line, who will stop them ? Not artillery and not the non-existent infantry... Image
On paper, ukrainian brigades are supposed to be there. But they are paper brigades. Hundreds of soldiers are deserting, many died or are wounded and the recruitment is not working.

So you have big holes everywhere. Only drone teams are saving it by killing more and more russians
Russian forces cut the Kramatorsk-Dobropilla highway...

This is the 4th or 5th little breakthrough since the start of positionnal warfare.

Russia in Ocheretyne, Prohres, South of Kostiantynivka and Ukraine in Kursk.

This one is the biggest, with roughly 20km in +/- a week.
We are increasingly moving out of the positional warfare, since Ukraine lacks reserves.

Next friday's meeting between Trump and Putin will be the occasion for Putin to ask for big conditions or continue the war.

The ball is in Trump's feets. Force Ukraine to accept and...
...disengage, or refuse Putin's proposal.

Anyway, Putin will be coming with big avantage in hands, a very recent, even if rather small and not exploited breakthrough.
Why there is no more tanks used by Russia ?
Because they are waiting for a big push, when there will be no more anti-tank ditches and fewer effective drone teams...

They will come back, don't worry

I will talk about it more in details in the next few days, but we have seen this coming for weeks.

Russian airforce bombed multiple times this exact area. There is even a video of drones attacks against excavators trying to finish the defensive line...
A telegram channel from Dobropilla say sabotage groups may be operating inside the city. Image
Map by @M0nstas showing that this area is uphill. As always, remember ocheretyne 1 year ago. Image

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More from @clement_molin

Aug 9
Négociations sur l'Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇷🇺, capitulation, retrait russe, gel du front, échange de territoires, à quoi s'attendre ?

Que peuvent espérer les deux belligérants ? Qui est en position de force ? Quel rôle pour Trump et l'Europe ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️ Image
Dans cette guerre, deux doctrines s'opposent, le réalisme et l'idéalisme.

L'idealisme, c'est le droit, le juste et la vérité. Le réalisme c'est la puissance, les leviers de pression et le rapport de force.

Je suis réaliste, même si on se doit d'évoquer les deux théories. Image
Que peut espérer l'Ukraine 🇺🇦?

Beaucoup de soutiens de l'Ukraine sont idéalistes. Ils croient au droit, à la justice et à la victoire.

Il y a cependant un fossé entre ce qui est espéré et ce qui est de l'ordre du réel. Image
Read 25 tweets
Aug 7
Pour la première fois depuis la chute d'Avdiivka, plusieurs villes ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 sont menacées par les récentes progressions russes 🇷🇺

J'ai comptabilisé 9 villes qui sont soit sur le front, soit menacées d'encerclement, dont Koupiansk, Siversk et Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14⬇️ Image
1- Vovchansk

Dans l'oblast de Kharkiv, au nord-est de la 2ème ville d'Ukraine, cette petite ville disputée depuis 15 mois est menacée.

L'armée russe contrôle presque la partie nord de la ville (derrière la rivière) et débute une incursion sur la partie sud. carte @UAControlMap Image
Cependant, gardons à l'esprit que cette ville de 18 000 habitants est entièrement détruite après 15 mois de bataille d'attrition à moins de 10km de la frontière russe.

Si elle tombe, la route vers Shevchenkove pourrait s'ouvrir. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 6
One year from today, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces launched their ambitious « Kursk offensive ».

It failed to achieve significant results despite strong objectives. Russian 🇷🇺 army managed to hold the ground and push back later the ukrainians from Kursk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
August 6th 2024, after a long and silent preparation, numerous separate bataillons of Ukraine's best brigades smashed into the border and broke through russian lines.

Really fast, they faced strong resistance. Image
To have a good vision of the operation, I'm using the best source possible, @LovelyLad_.

He worked on hours of footages, talked with many ukrainian soldiers and commanders.

Here is his work :
Read 25 tweets
Jul 28
In Sumy oblast, russian 🇷🇺 forces suffered their first "setback" in months, after loosing 2 villages despite massive airstrikes.

Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces stopped the offensive and are building new fortifications.

However, this is the lone good news for Ukraine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
After months of constant progress in the direction of Sumy city, which started after ukrainian defeat and retreat in Kursk, russian forces have now largely been stopped.

The frontline remains static because both sides sent in new reserves. (via @Deepstate_UA) Image
Ukrainian forces liberated two villages, Kindrativka and Andrivka from russian forces. This very small victory can be seen as interesting, because it is the first in month, however, the price for it was very high.

Men died, other were wounded, in senseless counter-attacks.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 24
Géopolitique de l'Afrique de l'est 🇸🇩🇸🇸🇪🇹🇩🇯🇸🇴🇪🇷🇰🇪🇺🇬🇹🇿

De la guerre civile au Soudan au séparatisme Somalilandais en passant par l'Ethiopie et Djibouti, voyage dans un imbroglio géopolitique.

Typologie, situation sécuritaire, alliés internationaux…

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ Image
Géographiquement, je vais parler de pays qui peuvent être considérés d'afrique de l'est dont certains sont présents dans la corne de l'Afrique.

L'Ouganda et le Soudan du Sud peuvent être considérés d'Afrique Centrale également, mais je vais les garder dans l'analyse. Image
1- Soudan 🇸🇩

Guerre civile en cours entre les FSR (arabes de l'ouest) et la coalition autour de l'armée (arabe du Nil, peuples africains). Le Soudan est en Etat de famine et coupé en deux. Dictature militaire.

Alliés internationaux :

Armée : 🇮🇷🇹🇷🇷🇺🇶🇦🇪🇬🇸🇦
FSR : 🇦🇪🇸🇸🇹🇩🇱🇾🇪🇹🇷🇺🇰🇪🇨🇫 Image
Read 24 tweets
Jul 23
While massive russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes continue north of Pokrovsk (new maps on the thread), russian forces are now threathening both this strategic city and supply roads to Donbass.

This map I made with @Pouletvolant3 is showing the main ukrainian 🇺🇦 supply roads

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Image
Just few days ago, I mapped 450 new russian airstrikes in 8 days, north of Pokrovsk.

Image
This thread was widely shared, because It shows some data we forgot to analyse, the massive airstrike campaign by russian airforce.

Here in blue, the 450 airstrikes in 8 days.
Image
Read 13 tweets

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