Wasteland Capital Profile picture
Aug 11 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The bullish $AAPL case is price increases.

The latest base iPhone still only costs $799, the latest MacBook $999. That’s the same price since pre-inflation 2020. And the hardware has greatly improved.

Meanwhile Netflix has hiked prices 64%+ since. For the exact same service. Image
Apple’s products last for a very long time, get six years+ of OS updates & have high resale value, so the right way to see an iPhone has always been “per month”.

A $799 iPhone lasting six years is only $11.10/month. Same as in 2020.

Netflix Standard? $10.99 then, $17.99 now.
Now, I’m not saying that Apple should increase prices by 50% overnight. It would create a political blowback.

But Apple has definitely been way too slow to hike, and should have acted much faster.

Being the only business not increasing prices when inflation soared was stupid.
We should as consumers & society strongly appreciate Apple’s low per month pricing and their commitment to add many more features, better hardware and higher value while keeping prices fixed.

But from a business & share price perspective, not so much. Price increases will come.

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More from @ecommerceshares

Aug 5
If the “Most Favoured Nation” proposal is enforced (meaning Americans will pay European prices for Ozempic and not 15x as much as the Germans), $NVO stock would fall 60-70%+ in one day. It’s an insane price premium if you think about it.

But US health would massively win. Image
Now, what are the chances it happens? Hard to say.

But it would be significantly deflationary and create immense goodwill for the Administration. Out-of-pocket, real savings would be both large and immediate for Americans.

Thus it could get to the top of the agenda quickly. Image
The Medicare inclusion risk is significant too. It would be a 20-25% or so immediate stock hit if it happened.

All of these price cuts would be taken from Novo’s revenue and thus bottom line. No one will shed a tear for a business with 50% EBITDA margins! Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
$CELH joining the “Pump-And-Dump Hall-of-Fame”. Revenue DOWN -31%. 😳 WTF? A “growth” company? All profit wiped out! Distributor (Pepsi) de-stocking = don’t want it!🤮 Another pump & 💩 meant to f**k people’s brokerage accounts raw. 🩸 Stock at 40x ‘24 P/E (!) before revisions. Image
Just remember that they recognise revenue when it goes to the distributor, not when the stuff actually sells. Plus there are rebates and consumer promotion shenanigans affecting margins. So unclear when growth will return, or what they’ll do here exactly. 🤷‍♂️ Image
Many people claim 😒 they buy the dip on this, and while these peeps have been obliterated so far, it may bounce on the $28 support if they dip their little fingers in here. Otherwise, it’s a long way down.

Revenue & EPS estimates coming down, that’s for sure. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
$META The good: After 6 flat/down Qs, we saw solid rev growth: +11%. Ad impressions +34% (more ad slots! 👏). Costs rose +10% so EBIT +12%. THE WHOPPER 😲: Q3 rev guide raised to $32-34.5bn vs $31bn cons = UP TO +24.5% Y/y! ‘23 cost guide ⬆️ but capex ⬇️ = EPS UP +6/9%+ ‘23/‘24. Image
The bad: FCF was $11bn but a meagre $7bn post the simply yuuge $4.1bn SBC print this Q (and only $5.3bn post the stock withholding taxes, IRS gang gang!). On current $800bn cap, $7bn is 3.5% annualised FCF yield. If capex has moved to ‘24, how much FCF in ‘24? Key question!!! 🤔 Image
One interesting things is that they’re finally getting Reels to work, where revenues have gone from $3bn to a $10bn run rate. 👍 That’s very strong… but means the rest of the business is still flat. Q3 comeback?

A TikTok ban would be the game changer here. Likely, or not? 🤷‍♂️ Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 27, 2023
$META While results were pretty sh*t (unless +2.6% growth & -15% EBIT makes you 💦), it’s ALL in the strong guidance: +13% Q2 growth at the high end, and further dramatic cut in ‘23 opex, at $86bn (low end). In October, they guided for up to $101bn, so up to a $15bn diff! 🍌 Image
On the capex side they now guided to $30bn at the low end, vs up to $39bn in Q3, so up $9bn in less spend. Add that to $15bn, and you have UP TO $24bn in more FCF vs their guide in Q3 ‘22!

At midpoint, it’s $15.5bn. At 15x FCF, that’s $233bn in “value”, or $310bn at 20x.
Post that catastrophic Q3 with insanely high expenses guide, the market cap bottomed at $200bn! So just by “saving” $15.5bn (and up to $24bn) vs what THEY THEMSELVES said they’ll spend, they “created” $233bn in “value” (at 15x FCF), which is 116% of their market cap then.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21, 2023
If you hold spare cash in your brokerage account you’re just giving free profits to your broker, who invests it in T-Bills (6M now at ~4.8%) and keeps the profits.

Instead, it’s much smarter to either buy T-Bills yourself OR to put the cash in either a T-Bill ETF or T-Bill fund.
A Treasury Bill is a U.S. government bond that has 1 year or less to maturity (3, 6, 12 months). T-Bills (and the find who hold them) are very liquid and as safe as they can be. Uncle Sam short term IOUs!

They also yield much more than even the best savings accounts available.
A Treasury Bill is a zero coupon bond, meaning they’re sold at discount & redeemed at par. Today, for example, a Bill maturing in June with a 0.125% coupon traded at $98.096, meaning you’d get a 4.976% annual yield to maturity if you buy it. The ETFs & funds buy portfolios.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 7, 2023
Some earnings charts and observations from Morgan Stanley:

Forward EPS Growth is now negative for just the 5th time since 2000 (and historically this has meant more downside)…
… and we’re currently in the first negative EPS growth quarter since the COVID recession….
… while downward revisions for Q1 2023 earnings are increasing.

“In other words, the narrative may be that corporates sound fine, but the data is not corroborating that generalization.” - MS
Read 5 tweets

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