Thread by @Inkvisiit

Situation north of Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad salient is deteriorating rapidly with Russian forces rapidly infiltrating past Ukrainian lines at a depth of roughly 17km during the past three days. Forwardmost Russian units have reportedly reached the Dobropillya – Kramatorsk road T0514 and Russian infiltration groups have also been reported near Dobropillya proper. 1/

Next 24-48 hours will likely be crucial in whether the Ukrainians are able to contain the situation before the Russian infiltration groups are reinforced and they are able to further “blossom” out to multiple directions as has been their past modus operandi in similar situations. A lot will depend on availability, quantity and quality of Ukrainian reserves. 2/

I know that optimists among you are likely looking at this penetration as “perfect opportunity” for Ukrainians to counterattack, cut off and destroy the attacking Russians. However, we have seen in the past how in similar situations the Ukrainians have failed to do so. Furthermore, I would urge caution as the situation is likely messier and even more chaotic than our or Deepstates map shows. 3/

Clearly the Ukrainians have a crisis on their hands and the situation around Pokrovsk – Myrnohrad salient could already be described as such several weeks ago. Ukrainians will almost certainly rush in reinforcements to the area, but from where and at what cost? Ukrainians are unlikely to have plenty of ready operational or strategic reserves, which means that the forces need to come off other sections of the frontline. This in turn will open further possibilities for the Russians to exploit elsewhere. Be as it may, there is likely no other choice. 4/

During May-June period the Russian summer campaign netted only relatively small incremental advances pretty much across the frontline with little meaningful net gains in terms of territory. Now in August it is possible that this will change as the number of ongoing crises begin to add up. 5/5