The Zolotyi Kolodyaz catastrophe. For whoever is asking "what the hell", "why" and "how".
🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️
🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️
2/🧵
This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity.
As discussed in my previous thread, there are multiple reasons for this breakthrough, the main of which are:
- completely inadequate command
- sheer amount of Russian resources that were committed
- Ukrainian disorganization
- New Russian mobile groups that simply bypass scattered Ukrainian resistance points.
This breakthrough was NOT opened because of 1 reason in particular, but all of them.
This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity.
As discussed in my previous thread, there are multiple reasons for this breakthrough, the main of which are:
- completely inadequate command
- sheer amount of Russian resources that were committed
- Ukrainian disorganization
- New Russian mobile groups that simply bypass scattered Ukrainian resistance points.
This breakthrough was NOT opened because of 1 reason in particular, but all of them.
3/🧵
The main tactic of the Russians in this direction is almost completely based on infantry, very likely with motorized "attachments" like bikes and motorcycles. No mechanized component was noticed.
At the moment, according to my information, the breakthrough is packed full of Russian foot infantry, who are accumulating, we can easily guess, without any type of Ukrainian resistance, and then, with the same amount of resistance, simply walking or having a motorcycle ride to new positions further north.
The main tactic of the Russians in this direction is almost completely based on infantry, very likely with motorized "attachments" like bikes and motorcycles. No mechanized component was noticed.
At the moment, according to my information, the breakthrough is packed full of Russian foot infantry, who are accumulating, we can easily guess, without any type of Ukrainian resistance, and then, with the same amount of resistance, simply walking or having a motorcycle ride to new positions further north.
4/🧵
Let's not joke around, my fellow pro-Ukrainians. The situation is catastrophic. This breakthrough, as explained in my previous thread, not only threatens big tactical advancements, but also the encirclement of the whole Donbas region, key part of Putin's claims for negotiations, together with the push at Shandryholove (Lyman), constituting the northern pincer.
The total confirmed length of this breakthrough reaches the length of 15km. The unconfirmed length is at about 19km.
Addressing whoever says that this cannot be considered a breakthrough, I advise you to have a look around DeepState's updates of the last 3 years, and then come back here and tell your opinion.
Let's not joke around, my fellow pro-Ukrainians. The situation is catastrophic. This breakthrough, as explained in my previous thread, not only threatens big tactical advancements, but also the encirclement of the whole Donbas region, key part of Putin's claims for negotiations, together with the push at Shandryholove (Lyman), constituting the northern pincer.
The total confirmed length of this breakthrough reaches the length of 15km. The unconfirmed length is at about 19km.
Addressing whoever says that this cannot be considered a breakthrough, I advise you to have a look around DeepState's updates of the last 3 years, and then come back here and tell your opinion.
5/🧵
The real problem here, no matter what anybody says, is INFANTRY.
This is a war of drones, that's true. But infantry remains the king of the war.
Infantry defends positions, captures them and controls territory.
After the smaller Razine breakthrough, the Russians encountered resistance in the form of urgently redeployed National Guards, and as they always do, slowed down and sensed for weak points.
The real problem here, no matter what anybody says, is INFANTRY.
This is a war of drones, that's true. But infantry remains the king of the war.
Infantry defends positions, captures them and controls territory.
After the smaller Razine breakthrough, the Russians encountered resistance in the form of urgently redeployed National Guards, and as they always do, slowed down and sensed for weak points.
6/🧵
In this case the weak point was found north of Nykanorivka already on July 20th. After this, the Russians sent their mobile infantry groups to "flood" this weak spot with infantry, which very simply bypassed hastily set up Ukrainian strongpoints, which you see in the photo in red (@justincbzz).
But this weak point was not weak in terms of drones, but INFANTRY.
Drones in this particular sector were able to indeed slow the Russians for a good while, but it is infantry who defends the trench system when the drones fail.
And with a "catastrophic" shortage of infantry (described as such by DeepState), this was bound to happen sooner or later.
In this case the weak point was found north of Nykanorivka already on July 20th. After this, the Russians sent their mobile infantry groups to "flood" this weak spot with infantry, which very simply bypassed hastily set up Ukrainian strongpoints, which you see in the photo in red (@justincbzz).
But this weak point was not weak in terms of drones, but INFANTRY.
Drones in this particular sector were able to indeed slow the Russians for a good while, but it is infantry who defends the trench system when the drones fail.
And with a "catastrophic" shortage of infantry (described as such by DeepState), this was bound to happen sooner or later.
7/🧵
Summing up this section, multiple problems are to blame for this breakthrough, but the most important of them is infantry shortage, which created a weak point that the Russians ALWAYS exploit immediately.
Summing up this section, multiple problems are to blame for this breakthrough, but the most important of them is infantry shortage, which created a weak point that the Russians ALWAYS exploit immediately.
8/🧵
Let's go to the damage assessment.
1. The Dobropillia-Kramatorsk road was physically cut near Novovodyane according to many reliable reports.
2. Russian DRGs are preparing the northern pincer for Dobropillia, with multiple reliable sources stating that they're at the doors of Bilozerske.
3. Russian DRGs, according to sources from both sides, are at the doors of Dobropillia.
4. Russian forces, having encountered resistance at Rodynske, opened a new opportunity to encircle the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad agglomeration, with some isolated reports talking about DRGs in Hryshyne from the Dobropilla direction, not Udachne-Kotlyne.
5. The Russians can now "fold" the front further east towards Kostyantynivka, breaking the already precarious balance created here by the emergency reinforcements moved after the Novoolenivka breakthrough on May 1st.
6. The Russians, having breached Ukraine's first and only defensive line, has open operational space only composed of rural areas to advance further north in the direction of Barvinkove and Slovyansk to cut off Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, together with the northern Lyman pincer described above.
Let's go to the damage assessment.
1. The Dobropillia-Kramatorsk road was physically cut near Novovodyane according to many reliable reports.
2. Russian DRGs are preparing the northern pincer for Dobropillia, with multiple reliable sources stating that they're at the doors of Bilozerske.
3. Russian DRGs, according to sources from both sides, are at the doors of Dobropillia.
4. Russian forces, having encountered resistance at Rodynske, opened a new opportunity to encircle the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad agglomeration, with some isolated reports talking about DRGs in Hryshyne from the Dobropilla direction, not Udachne-Kotlyne.
5. The Russians can now "fold" the front further east towards Kostyantynivka, breaking the already precarious balance created here by the emergency reinforcements moved after the Novoolenivka breakthrough on May 1st.
6. The Russians, having breached Ukraine's first and only defensive line, has open operational space only composed of rural areas to advance further north in the direction of Barvinkove and Slovyansk to cut off Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, together with the northern Lyman pincer described above.
9/🧵
This sudden effort is not only to be tied to tactical reasons like the ones discussed above, but also political ones. Putin is clearly showing that he CAN attempt these kinds of pushes, that if he wants something he will be determined to take it, and that he is doing a "favour" by offering Ukraine this type of deal. Specifically, giving up the remaining parts of Donbas.
This sudden effort is not only to be tied to tactical reasons like the ones discussed above, but also political ones. Putin is clearly showing that he CAN attempt these kinds of pushes, that if he wants something he will be determined to take it, and that he is doing a "favour" by offering Ukraine this type of deal. Specifically, giving up the remaining parts of Donbas.
10/🧵
This breakthrough, from the bright side for Ukraine, has the potential to stir up something big internally regarding command reforms, that contend the #1 place for most urgent problem to solve in the Ukrainian Army.
This breakthrough, from the bright side for Ukraine, has the potential to stir up something big internally regarding command reforms, that contend the #1 place for most urgent problem to solve in the Ukrainian Army.
https://x.com/BohdanKrotevych/status/1954987845698965587
11/🧵
To counter this, according to my information, Ukraine has urgently redeployed to the breakthrough at least the 92nd Assault Brigade from Kharkiv front, and 4th National Guard "Rubizh" from the front of Dobropillia, together with other units which I'm still not allowed to name because of the crazy OPSEC that is going on there and that everybody noticed since mid-June and the fall of Koptieve and Razine.
To counter this, according to my information, Ukraine has urgently redeployed to the breakthrough at least the 92nd Assault Brigade from Kharkiv front, and 4th National Guard "Rubizh" from the front of Dobropillia, together with other units which I'm still not allowed to name because of the crazy OPSEC that is going on there and that everybody noticed since mid-June and the fall of Koptieve and Razine.
12/🧵
Is this enough? Extremely likely, not.
Again, I believe Ukrainian forces are going to have to make a strong decision immediately to shorten the front somewhere and free up units, because I think it's clear to everyone that the blanket is too short.
What I would logically do is withdraw completely from the Oskil bridgehead, and Siversk, defending itself from 3 sides and lenghtening the front significantly, which would though interfere with the great organization the units there have gained in the past years.
I'm still an OSINTer, after all, not a commander.
Is this enough? Extremely likely, not.
Again, I believe Ukrainian forces are going to have to make a strong decision immediately to shorten the front somewhere and free up units, because I think it's clear to everyone that the blanket is too short.
What I would logically do is withdraw completely from the Oskil bridgehead, and Siversk, defending itself from 3 sides and lenghtening the front significantly, which would though interfere with the great organization the units there have gained in the past years.
I'm still an OSINTer, after all, not a commander.
13/🧵
Thank you for reading this urgent thread that I made.
Never thought I would need to make 2 threads in a row for the same breakthrough, but I am sure I will need to make more to explain this better.
Again, sorry if it was a little boring, but it is necessary to understand certain aspects, too, to understand the full picture.
If you would like to support me with even a little donation after seeing me writing threads at midnight, here's my BuyMeACoffee 🥲🥲coff.ee/playfra
And if you aren't already, go subscribe to my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
Have a good night/day everyone!
Thank you for reading this urgent thread that I made.
Never thought I would need to make 2 threads in a row for the same breakthrough, but I am sure I will need to make more to explain this better.
Again, sorry if it was a little boring, but it is necessary to understand certain aspects, too, to understand the full picture.
If you would like to support me with even a little donation after seeing me writing threads at midnight, here's my BuyMeACoffee 🥲🥲coff.ee/playfra
And if you aren't already, go subscribe to my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
Have a good night/day everyone!
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