ettingermentum Profile picture
Aug 11 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The Bernie-AOC favorability gap is the most important question in left-wing electoral politics today.
Still a bit of a narrative-buster that she's solidly more popular than Newsom and Vance, though.
Newsom’s unfavs in particular have been consistently abysmal and should make a 2028 run a nonstarter.

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More from @ettingermentum

Aug 12
The one popular politician in the country being a guy who is going all-in on 2017 leftism…actually too scary.
You know that this entire trip was 1000% his own idea because any self-respecting young leftist staffer gave up on the idea of WV as fertile ground for the revolution at least half a decade ago.
Bernie still remembers Logan County voting for McGovern though he will not be moved by people calling them social fascists
Read 4 tweets
Aug 8
I feel like this debate would be much better served if the people arguing in favor of the delegate system would just say that they think it’s better because they know better than the mass membership. It’s not like that’s some unheard-of consideration in voting system design.
Having MPs elect leaders is the most common democratic system in the world. It’s been regarded as fully legitimate for literal centuries. Why not just argue in favor of it outright instead of making convoluted arguments as to how it’s actually *more* democratic (it isn’t).
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7
Granted this is pretty similar to them holding on to 2020 Woke for years after the fact even when electorates as lib as NYC Democrats were voting for guys like Eric Adams.
Literally none of these orgs have ever actually predicted trends in advance in a long time, they've just followed big things after they happen and stay stuck on them for years after the fact.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
Irt AOC: from a clinical standpoint, Zohran showed that you can totally avoid spats online by just never mentioning or explaining moderation. When he left his shift on policing unstated, nobody cared, while writers who explicitly said they liked what he was doing got pilloried.
When you just avoid bringing up sore spots with your supporters, it puts the impetus on others to start an outrage cycle, which often is perceived as wrecker behavior and pisses people off. But when you light the spark yourself it gets rid of that barrier entirely.
Ofc not making dumb decisions like funding Israel is the first step here—there’s no way out of criticism if your choices don’t even make sense from an electoral perspective. But in other areas where there are obvious trade offs, the critics can often be very inconsistent.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 16
This is fucking unreal lmfao. The candidate who won in a landslide was endorsed by Bernie and AOC! The person who lost was a Harris 2020 staffer!
The actual establishment DMFI guy came in third!!!! What are we doing here?
So unbelievably disingenuous to connect Zohran (who is part of an EXTREMELY well defined movement) to any left-ish candidate who runs on themes they PRESUME he ran on but actually didn't.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 28
I think the thing with Clinton is that a big part of charisma comes as part as a candidate’s ability to position themselves as an individual against a system. That was possible when he was running against a more liberal Dem establishment but is a lot harder today.
Holding all the intangible things that make someone compelling equal, it’s just very difficult to endear yourself to people if you’re only representing institutions. Those institutions will always overshadow you!
It’s because of this that I doubt that a Bill Clinton equivalent who spawned into existence today would be as successful as IRL Clinton in the early 90s. The ideas would be tired and boring, and the people interested in them would gravitate towards experience over upstarts.
Read 4 tweets

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