Nobody brings it up because nobody trusts polling anymore but if you look at the national average this election you clearly see Harris shedding two points (i.e., the margin in WI, MI, PA and GA) after early September, which is around when she started the Liz Cheney world tour.
The narrative has been so centered around her uphill battle and the headwinds and whatnot that nobody has ever accused her people of blowing a lead. But if you take the polls literally, they…blew a lead.
Nov 7, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
These states voting D at the Senate level, plus NC Dems winning half of the state’s statewide contests, means that non-Harris Democrats won in enough states to get over 270 electoral votes. This was an electorate Ds could have won with—they just didn’t want Biden or Harris.
Even in states that didn’t split, downballot Dems outran Kamala across the board. Maryland, where the popular moderate former Governor Larry Hogan ran, was the sole exception.
Nov 6, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
From this to the Selzer poll to special elections, all of the big indicators that succeeded at clocking Trump’s strength in 2016 and 2020 went totally bust this year. Nate Cohn was absolutely right; turnout dynamics have changed too much to use them as a baseline as I did.
The likely cause of this appears to be Dobbs causing Dems to solidify their strength with high-prop, high-engagement voters in a way that prevented those groups from depicting shifts in attitudes as they did in the past.
Oct 3, 2024 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
I don't think it's recognized yet just how dangerous it is to have a Democratic candidate practically outsourcing her foreign policy to neocon think tanks like CNAS while parading around her Dick Cheney endorsement.
In 2019, Kamala’s top foreign policy advisor was Michèle Flournoy, who supported war in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and was nearly Hillary Clinton's Defense Secretary. Flournoy was endorsed for that role by Iraq War architects Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Kristol inthesetimes.com/article/center…
Apr 23, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Thread of these images
Apr 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
he should have thought about staying true to his mission instead of scoffing at every single objection to his priors for an entire election cycle and including firms run by literal high schoolers called “patriot polls” in his models because they fit those priors. but oh well.
he blew three of the most pivotal senate races of the election, forecasted overall chamber control wrong and massively overrated Republican strength in the house. he did worse than both other statistical models and subjective raters. like I’m sorry but you need to deliver.
Apr 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Biden was born closer to Abraham Lincoln’s presidency than his own, and was a teenager while Civil War veterans were alive. During his first campaign for the U.S. Senate, he shared a ballot with Richard Nixon and campaigned on a “a quick end to the Vietnam war”.
He also allegedly received help from the Irishman from The Irishman. When he entered the U.S. Senate, Franco was in power in Spain and Portugal still had colonies in Africa. As a Senator, he served in Congress with six colleagues born in the 1800s and met Josip Broz Tito.
Apr 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Feeling more vindicated than I ever have in my entire life over my distrust over empiricism in polisci after seeing that Terry Moe works at the Hoover Institution.
THE APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY AND DENIGRATION OF HISTORICAL ANALYSIS WAS NEVER SINCERE. IT WAS ALL A VILE MONOCRAT SCHEME TO PROPAGANDIZE THE PRESIDENCY AS THE SOLE LEGITIMATE POLITICAL ACTOR IN THE FACE OF A REDISTRIBUTIVIST CONGRESS. WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!
