Please refer to my note from four days ago - this is critical. In both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage. The current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest. So, what is actually happening on the ground? 
2/ A collapse, in military terms, means a loss of command and control, a breakdown in battlefield awareness, and an inability to regroup, withdraw in an organized fashion, or coordinate with units. To the best of my knowledge, none of these conditions are currently present.
3/ The situation more closely resembles events of May 2024, when Russian forces slipped through unprepared Ukrainian defenses along the border and advanced nearly 10 kilometers. That incursion was eventually contained and remained a localized pocket.
4/ At this moment, there is insufficient information to determine whether Ukrainian forces have the resources to contain Russian forces. The Russian grouping assembled in the Pokrovsk direction reportedly numbers more than 100,000 troops, raising the risk of further expansion.
5/ The sequence is simple: identify a weak point in the enemy’s defenses, penetrate it, widen the breach, and then deploy exploitation forces into the operational space to achieve operational goals via manoeuvre. Currently, the Russians have located and penetrated a weak point.
6/ They must still expand the breach and commit their exploitation forces. Only then would this qualify as an operational breakthrough and, if subsequent manoeuvres succeed and evolve into a collapse of defences, resulting in chaos and loss of unit cohesion.
7/ To summarize, the situation could undeniably deteriorate to a catastrophic level, with far worse consequences, a plausible scenario given the lead-up to negotiations. That said, we are not there yet, and the coming days will show whether this penetration can be contained.
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