Thread by @zerodhamarkets

Imagine a scorching 45°C day during growing season in rural India. While city folks find relief in AC, this single day ripples through rural families' lives in profound ways, affecting what they eat, how they work, spend money, and survive.🧵👇

New research by Paul Stainier, Manisha Shah and Alan Berreca surveyed 3 lakh rural households across India from 2003-2012, many growing food for themselves rather than sale. Their question, when extreme heat destroys crops, can families adapt easily?

The relationship between extreme heat and farmers' lives is more complex than expected. You'd think extreme heat kills crops, food disappears, people go hungry, eating fewer calories. But researchers found something far more interesting and disturbing.

Here's the puzzle, extreme heat didn't affect average calorie consumption in households studied. When temperatures crossed 43°C for one day during growing season, overall calorie intake barely budged. So what was really happening beneath the surface?

The real story lies in details. When temperatures cross 43°C for single day, share of households suffering "strong undernutrition" (80% below recommended intake) went up by 0.36 percentage points. That's 3 million people pushed into food insecurity.

A tenth of our population experienced more than two days of extreme heat. States like Rajasthan saw more than ten such days. These episodes would push one in every thirty households into under-nourishment. Yet average calories consumed didn't budge.

The horrifying explanation for this paradox, extreme heat increased mortality rate. As number of extreme heat days went up, many people simply died due to heat stress. Death rate for ages 18-39 increases alarmingly with higher temperature.

Beyond calories, extreme heat creates nutritional deficiencies. Take iron, 54.7% of households already consumed less than 80% of recommended iron intake in normal times. This creates anaemia, lower energy, mental health issues, all worsened by extreme heat.

Extreme heat causes deficiencies in nutrients ranging from zinc to thiamine to niacin. Families already strongly under-nourished face the worst impact, creating a vicious cycle of malnutrition and climate vulnerability.

How do households react to extreme heat? They adapt. If heat destroys home-grown crops, they don't just accept hunger. They start buying more food to replace what they've lost from gardens and farms. But where does money come from?

They're forced to migrate seeking jobs. They leave farms, take temporary work elsewhere after growing period to make ends meet. Single day above 43°C sends extra 0.26% away from farms to non-farm jobs outside home, creating massive labour market shifts.

These jobs are unlikely to be more productive or better paying. People probably just find ways of getting by. 27% of India's workforce keeps hopping from one informal, low-paying job to another without stability, stuck without climbing economic ladder.

Heat can force people to drop out of jobs entirely. When temperature goes above 43°C for just one day during growing season, share of working-age people with jobs falls by 0.16 percentage points that year. Extreme heat forces meaningful job losses.

Borrowing money isn't easy either. Many households have little-to-no access to credit. No bank loans to them. If they can't find jobs, no other way to get relief from income shock. So what options are left when they must buy food?

Many sell assets they might need later, despite having little wealth anyway. Alternatively, they take debt from informal sources or reduce investments in long-term health, education. India's agricultural families show remarkable resilience at hefty price.

They're running sophisticated economic balancing act just to keep fed. Lowest-income families find adaptation hardest. They suffer severe malnutrition yet can't make pivots easily, less likely to have skills for non-farm work or access to credit.

Inequality worsens within families too. Past research shows female children generally receive lower share of resources. Climate crises further depress this share. Climate change is etching huge burn scar across Indian agriculture, probably getting worse.

Policy implications are clear. Can't just make agriculture more resilient to climate change. Traditional farm-based adaptation measures, heat-resistant crops, better irrigation, simply aren't enough. Families are moving out of agriculture as warming intensifies.

Researchers recommend investing in non-agricultural job opportunities in rural areas, ensuring credit access when crops fail, building better infrastructure so families can access food when needed. Also need early warning systems connected to direct assistance.

When extreme heat is forecast, governments should provide immediate cash transfers, climate insurance to vulnerable households. Hot weather destroys crops but effects ripple through population, sending vulnerable people into cycles of economic misery. We need solutions fast.

We cover this and one more interesting story in today's edition of The Daily Brief. Watch on YouTube, read on Substack, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

All links here:thedailybrief.zerodha.com/p/android-on-t…