Actually, the Soviet Union in the "Great Patriotic War" did suffer worse casualties and win.
It is that fact which powers the "Russian WW2 exceptionalism" myth that Putin used to zombify Russians over 20 years to make suicidal assaults over and over again.
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It is that fact which powers the "Russian WW2 exceptionalism" myth that Putin used to zombify Russians over 20 years to make suicidal assaults over and over again.
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https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1954889015876030781
I said something like what Chuck just said about Russian casualties in July 2024.
Chuck now, like I did then, underestimates how powerful cultural conditioning is in making armies able to take horrific losses and continue.
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Chuck now, like I did then, underestimates how powerful cultural conditioning is in making armies able to take horrific losses and continue.
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1808585940626977177
As long a Putin's propaganda keeps Russians believing they are winning by taking miniscule slivers of Ukrainian land.
The Russians will keep coming.
It doesn't mean Russia will win. It means Russia is paying a disproportionate blood debt which will have to be paid.
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The Russians will keep coming.
It doesn't mean Russia will win. It means Russia is paying a disproportionate blood debt which will have to be paid.
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Russian casualties encompassing wounded in action (WIA) + killed in action (KIA) have nominally reduced by ~10% in daily tallies in the last three months.
However, the ongoing collapse of Russian field medicine and medevac
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However, the ongoing collapse of Russian field medicine and medevac
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...under FPV drone filled skies has seen an unprecedented flip in the ratio of WIA to KIA.
Until recently WIA:KIA ratio was in the range of 1.3-1:5:1 depending on what part of the front lines was examined.
This was consistent with historical data from WW1, WW2 & Cold War.
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Until recently WIA:KIA ratio was in the range of 1.3-1:5:1 depending on what part of the front lines was examined.
This was consistent with historical data from WW1, WW2 & Cold War.
5/
More recently reports claim - likely prompting Chuck's post - this has flipped in a number of sectors, as more Russian troops are dying from injuries.
Gen Syrsky reported last week that 267,400 Russian troops were lost this year - if sustained...
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Gen Syrsky reported last week that 267,400 Russian troops were lost this year - if sustained...
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...that would be more than a half a million for 2025, with this increasing ratio of Russian KIA to WIA.
To put this in context, total Russian casualties since 2022 exceed a million in 3.5 years of fighting.
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To put this in context, total Russian casualties since 2022 exceed a million in 3.5 years of fighting.
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To paraphrase a Cold War grey beard I correspond with:
"The general pattern outlined in March 2025 continues. Russia throws expendable mobiks at dug in Ukrainian positions and sustains up to 95% losses at unit level.
Repeat the same a day later, and so on.
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"The general pattern outlined in March 2025 continues. Russia throws expendable mobiks at dug in Ukrainian positions and sustains up to 95% losses at unit level.
Repeat the same a day later, and so on.
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Recent articles talk about Russia's three pronged operational method, pounding the front line trenches with FPV drones and UMPK glidebombs, and overrunning Ukrainian positions with expendable...
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"meat" formation attacks on foot, or on civilian vehicles, scooters, motorcycles and sometimes turtle-tanks.
While this model prevents AFU advances, it is not sustainable no matter what Russia's useful idiots in the West continue to argue."
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While this model prevents AFU advances, it is not sustainable no matter what Russia's useful idiots in the West continue to argue."
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The "Russia Strong" crowd in the West would point to my July 2024 and my Grey beard correspondent's March-Aug 2025 observations to say we are are wrong because in Aug 2025 Russia is still making breakthroughs.
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https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1955189334346256542
What we just saw was that the AFU "Drone Wall" -- a virtual buffer zone whose depth is determined by the range of the FPV drones and other loitering munitions available -- can be penetrated with enough reconnaissance, planning and a bloody minded willingness to expend lives.
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This is a "so-what" in that 15km is a tactical penetration.
Now the Russians are outside trenches having to move logistics through a very narrow salient, on foot, under a sky filled with AFU FPV drones.
That's an AFU opportunity to kill Russians at a better exchange ratio.
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Now the Russians are outside trenches having to move logistics through a very narrow salient, on foot, under a sky filled with AFU FPV drones.
That's an AFU opportunity to kill Russians at a better exchange ratio.
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I'll grant that the expedited movement of the Azov Corps et al represents a major operational level response to a tactical event.
Given the politics of the US/Russian Alaska meeting, Ukraine's Zelinskyy government really didn't have a choice here.
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Given the politics of the US/Russian Alaska meeting, Ukraine's Zelinskyy government really didn't have a choice here.
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https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1955295979542094033
The reality is Ukraine is not collapsing and the Russians are on a trajectory to take 1/2 million casualties in 2025 alone.
Pres. Trump cannot force a Ukrainian surrender and peace is a threat to Putin's hold on power.
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Pres. Trump cannot force a Ukrainian surrender and peace is a threat to Putin's hold on power.
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https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1955308191920566533
It comes down to what breaks first.
The Ukrainian will to fight? - No
The zombified Russian Army's will to fight? -Unlikely.
Or a Russian economy collapsing like the Czar's did in 1917 with a coup against Putin? - Increasingly likely.
16/16
The Ukrainian will to fight? - No
The zombified Russian Army's will to fight? -Unlikely.
Or a Russian economy collapsing like the Czar's did in 1917 with a coup against Putin? - Increasingly likely.
16/16
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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