Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Russians have recently advanced deep in the area east of Dobropillia. The situation has concerning elements which can escalate it into a serious crisis, but at this stage we’re still not witnessing a disaster – and by definition, not even a breakthrough. I’ll explain. 1/

The situation had been deteriorating for some time. The Russians had been attempting to advance in the Dobropillia direction earlier this month. A gray zone had formed in the area, as the Ukrainians struggled to maintain a firm defence against the infiltrating enemy. 2/

Russia has an advantage in expendable manpower – once it finds a weak spot, it can aggressively try to exploit it by pushing more infantry into the area. Small infiltration groups will try to advance as far as possible, which is enabled by the porous Ukrainian defences. 3/

Dealing with Russian infiltration tactics can be challenging for the already attrited and understaffed defenders. Ukrainians have been relatively good at preventing crises from emerging this summer, but it was to be expected that at some point the problems would accumulate. 4/

The Russians managed to advance up to 10-15 km deep, but this can’t be described as a breakthrough yet. I’m not underestimating the situation or saying it isn’t still very difficult, but it’s important to put the known developments and details into the right context. 5/

A breakthrough would require armor. Russians are currently advancing in a relatively narrow area, and I have not seen any heavier armored vehicles operating in the salient. Bringing armor forward is difficult because of the drone-dominated dynamics on the battlefield. 6/

To break through and actually cause a more serious collapse in Ukrainian defenses, Russia would need to commit a mechanized echelon to exploit the initial success. As long as Ukraine prevents this, the AFU has a good chance of regaining control of the situation. 7/

Russia needs to solidify captured positions and widen the flanks of the current breach in order to bring heavier equipment and support weapons in. As the “spearhead” operates relatively deep, supporting and supplying the infiltration groups can soon become an issue. 8/

The situation should be resolvable with a successful counterattack, if the Ukrainians manage to gather enough reserves in the area before the Russians gain a stronger hold on the newly gained positions. It is, however, uncertain if the Ukrainians can actually do it. 9/

In the worst-case scenario, small Russian infantry groups supported with drones continue advancing all around the salient causing chaos within the Ukrainian defenses, making concentrated and well-directed counterattacks considerably more difficult. 10/

The situation near Dobropillia needs a solution soon in a way or another. If counterattacks and stabilization measures fail, tactical withdrawals from some endangered positions may need to be considered to shorten the frontline. 11/

Ukraine’s rapid and forced deployment of units from a limited reserve base may open up new possibilities for the Russians, as they’re likely seeking to exploit Ukraine's reactive state in other sectors of the front. An autumn full of difficult decisions may lie ahead. 12/

Thanks for reading. I’ve been writing to X less during the summer, as my upcoming military history book has taken very much of my time.

However, me and our team at @Black_BirdGroup actively monitor the situation and update our map daily. 13/13

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