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Aug 13 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Russians plan to produce 79,000 Shahed-type drones in 2025, including 40,000 Geran-2; 5,700 Garpiya-1; and ~ 34,000 “Gerbera” and other decoys, according to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. More key data in the thread🧵: Image
2/ Around 11,000 North Koreans remain in the Kursk region and, more broadly, across the European part of Russia. They are stationed at the training grounds where four brigades were initially formed. An additional 1,200 North Koreans are expected to arrive in the Kursk region.
3/ Russia and North Korea have reached a preliminary agreement to deploy 6,000 personnel for demining, engineering, infrastructure projects, and medical services, with 1,200 forming the first batch.
4/ Preparations are currently underway for the ‘Zapad-2025’ drills in Belarus. We are monitoring the process closely, are aware of all stages, and understand the timing and movement of troops. So far, nothing unusual has been observed. The level of threat is relatively low
5/ Russian planners explicitly state in their plans that "the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026." This is a direct quote from Moscow’s planning materials.

(note: I have spoken about these documents multiple times, which is why I assumed the war might end soon).
6/ The costs of the war for Russia are very high. We can see the negative trends currently affecting their economy, which has essentially entered a stage of stagnation. This affects everything from mineral extraction to metallurgy. Their markets have shrunk.
7/ A significant portion of spending now goes to the defense-industrial complex, 42% of the budget is effectively being spent on the war, and this has an impact on other sectors of the economy. That is the first point.
8/ Second: they projected possible scenarios for how events might unfold and, among other things, concluded that if they continue the war at the same pace and with the same level of spending, they will never again be able to compete with either the United States or China
9/ The issue of lifting sanctions remains critical for Russia. According to the latest forecast, an oil price of $50 per barrel is sufficient for their needs. At that level, the Stabilization Fund, now largely redirected to finance the war - would last approximately 18 months
10/ Russia’s labor market is shrinking. With 350,000 people being mobilized annually into the army, and factoring in combat losses, the market effectively loses around 500,000 workers. In the industrial sector, 90% of companies report current labor shortages
11/ Thank you for taking the time to read this thread. Your engagement makes a difference! Please like and share the opening post to help increase its visibility and reach a wider audience. If you’re not following yet, be sure to hit follow to stay updated
The full interview is available in Ukrainian on Suspline Media at the link below:

suspilne.media/1089054-akso-p…

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Aug 12
Good commentary on the situation from Michael Kofman: I agree with his vision. He notes, “The next few days will prove telling,” and I’d like to expand from here. This may be Russia’s most favorable moment, meaning we are already seeing, or will soon see,its peak effort.🧵Thread:
2/ The main reason is the upcoming Aug. 15 talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Putin will almost certainly try to create the worst possible conditions for Ukrainian forces to strengthen his hand at the table.
3/ Given recent Russian gains near Pokrovsk, Putin may try to show Trump that Russia is close to trapping Ukraine’s army. Earlier this year, Trump wrote that Russians encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk after early discussions with Putin, likely echoing arguments presented to him Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
Please refer to my note from four days ago - this is critical. In both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage. The current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest. So, what is actually happening on the ground? Image
2/ A collapse, in military terms, means a loss of command and control, a breakdown in battlefield awareness, and an inability to regroup, withdraw in an organized fashion, or coordinate with units. To the best of my knowledge, none of these conditions are currently present.
3/ The situation more closely resembles events of May 2024, when Russian forces slipped through unprepared Ukrainian defenses along the border and advanced nearly 10 kilometers. That incursion was eventually contained and remained a localized pocket.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
A few more notes on Pokrovsk. Penetrations and developing envelopments rarely begin with a local commander’s decision. They stem from deeper problems on strategic level - starting with a shortage of manpower, itself the result of ineffective recruitment and a lack of trust:
2/ If units are only 25% manned but spread out as if they were fully staffed, and if there aren’t enough drones or trained pilots, then blaming a battalion or brigade commander is nothing more than scapegoating.
3/ Holding drills near the border or front lines under enemy drone surveillance, resulting in missile strikes, digging trenches in open fields, and similar acts of negligence all erode trust in leadership and, ultimately, weaken mobilization.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 11
Desertions, AWOLs, manpower shortages, and recruitment struggles are often linked to the Ukrainian army. And rightly so - I’ve spoken about these issues at length. But the situation on the Russian side is also worsening. This issue deserves wider attention, so here’s a 🧵thread:
2/ First, while Russia continues to receive a steady flow of recruits, only a part of them can be considered true volunteers. What’s actually happening is a form of hidden mobilization that has not only persisted but accelerated in recent months. Let's talk about it in detail
3/ In the past, Russia resorted to recruiting prisoners to get more people. That approach has shifted. Now, individuals arrested on suspicion of various crimes are offered the chance to sign a contract with the MoD on the spot - often as a way to avoid criminal investigation.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 11
As Moscow tries to spotlight Ukraine’s recruitment issues, the Kremlin is taking unprecedented steps to fill its own ranks. Here are key developments from the past two weeks:

1/ Russia’s electronic draft registry and Unified Military Register are now live and ramping up activity
2/ The Ministry of Defense has begun notifying residents of Perm of their inclusion in the Unified Military Register. Similar notices had previously been reported by residents of Saint Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Tyumen, Chuvashia and the Kaluga region.
3/ According to the “Idite Lesom” project, a Tver region resident eligible for conscription received two notifications: a draft notice to show up at the military enlistment office, and message confirming a deadline and restrictions, including a travel ban.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 10
A month ago, I wrote that the situation in Pokrovsk had become critical - for the second time since 2024. This time, however, our forces have been unable to stabilize the front. The loss of Pokrovsk is a matter of time, though claims that Russians have breakthrough are inaccurate
2/ The recent incursions by small Russian units deeper beyond Pokrovsk are largely the result of porous defenses, which allow limited infiltration but do not enable these forces to establish meaningful control over the area. At least for now
3/ The situation is developing unfavorably, but it is not unexpected. Russian forces have concentrated their largest grouping of troops along the Pokrovsk front and retain sufficient resources to sustain an intense offensive.
Read 4 tweets

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