Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 13 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Trump should make the return of Ukraine’s abducted children his non-negotiable first demand to test Putin’s commitment to peace. He claimed he could secure the return of 19,500+ children.

Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska is the ideal moment to press this issue, NYpost. 1/ Image
The UN and European Court of Human Rights recognize Russia’s child abductions as war crimes.

Russia created an online “catalog” of kidnapped children sorted by age, eye color, siblings, and obedience. Mykola Kuleba called it “state-sponsored child trafficking”. 2/
Russia’s database shows clear intent to keep, not return, kidnapped Ukrainian children.

Congress passed bipartisan resolutions urging their return before any peace deal. At June Istanbul talks, Ukraine shared a list of 339 children as a good-faith gesture. 3/
Kremlin delegate Medinsky mocked Ukraine’s child return request, saying not to “put on a show for European compassionate aunties.”

Russia returned only 6 of 339 children on Ukraine’s list and launched a record number of drones last month, targeting schools and hospitals. 4/
Trump promised tough sanctions if Putin rejects a cease-fire or shows no genuine peace intent.

Freeing Ukraine’s children should be Putin’s first step to prove good faith. Any meaningful peace deal must include Ukraine in negotiations over its own future. 5X

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 14
Bloomberg: Russia’s war economy is faltering just as Putin heads to Alaska to meet Trump on an Ukraine deal.

Oil revenues down, deficit at a 30-year high, inflation and interest rates surging, debt crisis warnings from inside Moscow.

1/ Image
War spending will reach nearly $172B in 2025 (~8% of GDP), says Alexandra Prokopenko (Carnegie).

Most costs are hidden in bank balance sheets, with lenders forced to issue low-interest loans to defense firms regardless of profitability.

2/
Harvard’s Craig Kennedy estimates corporate debt in military sectors jumped 71% ($460B) between Jul 2022–Nov 2024.

Much of it is opaque, with relaxed oversight on bad loans to defense contractors.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 14
Trump: I think Putin wants to get it done. I feel he wanted the whole thing. If it weren’t me, he would not talk to anybody. I believe now he’s convinced he’s going to make a deal, we’ll see in the meeting. 1/
Trump: Everything has an impact. I told India we’d charge them for buying Russian oil. They called to meet. Losing your second and first largest customers matters. He respects our country now. The market’s raging, companies moving back. Golden age of America. 2/
Trump: Economic incentives and disincentives are very important. Russia has tremendous potential, largest land, great wealth. Oil and gas is very profitable. They have advantages over most countries. Economic sanctions and incentives are very powerful. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 14
McFaul: Trump’s actions show no real strategy. He cut planned sanctions on India from 100% to 25%, delayed them, dropped China. His approach appeases Putin, pressures Ukraine, and has emboldened Putin to demand Ukraine leave land it still controls. 1/
McFaul: I see no sign Witkoff coordinates with others like envoy Kellogg. He flies to Moscow, treats Putin as a friend, acts more like a mailman than a negotiator, and may have even misunderstood Putin’s offer. The system needs tightening. 2/
McFaul: Putin is driven by ideas, not money or transactions. He aims to expand the Russian empire, thinking history will remember him for it. This isn’t about NATO; he sees no security threat from Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 14
INSANE!

The Telegraph: Trump will offer Putin access to rare earth minerals in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories to reach ceasefire.

US is also opening Alaska's natural resources to Russia and lifting aviation industry sanctions. 1/ Image
Ukraine holds 10% of world's lithium reserves, with two largest deposits in Russian-occupied areas Putin has claimed.

Trump threatens Putin with "severe consequences" if he refuses peace deal at Friday's Anchorage meeting. 2/
Lifting aviation sanctions could benefit Boeing as Russian airlines need parts for 700 grounded Western planes.

Nearly 30% of Russia's Western-made aircraft could be grounded within five years due to maintenance restrictions. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 14
NYT: Russia is suspected to be behind breach of the US federal court filing system.

CM/ECF has highly sensitive records that could reveal national security case details.

Hackers conducted a years-long infiltration effort to get cases with Russian surnames. 1/ Image
Justice Department issued urgent memo warning that "persistent and sophisticated cyber threat actors have recently compromised sealed records," advising immediate removal of most sensitive documents. 2/
Chief judges across at least eight district courts quietly warned last month to move overseas-tied criminal cases off regular document system and not discuss matter with other judges. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Aug 13
Operation “Spider Web” [took down 34% of Russian strategic aviation] started one month late because the recruited Russian drivers got drunk during Easter, May holidays, and May 9th — Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Malyuk.

We couldn't reach anyone. All unavailable.

1/
Malyuk: Today, our country must transform into a steel porcupine.

This includes increasing the number of personnel, their training, boosting air defense, UAV systems, ground robotic complexes, and all possible counterintelligence measures.

2/
Malyuk: Sea Baby drones [hit frigate “Admiral Makarov” and much more] are now multipurpose, with FPV systems, machine guns, and capabilities for combat, mining, and underwater missions.

We're constantly improving them. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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