Thread by @CaVivekkhatri

🚨BREAKING: “India is caught between two nuclear giants. And tomorrow, they meet without us.”

Putin is flying into U.S. airspace.
Trump is threatening “severe consequences.”
Ukraine isn’t even in the room.

And India?
– Dependent on Russian oil
– Facing U.S. tariff pressure
– Balancing BRICS vs. QUAD

This summit isn’t just a peace negotiation.
It’s a geopolitical time bomb.

Let’s break it down 👇

📌 What you’ll learn in this thread:

– Why this summit is NOT about Ukraine
– How it could reshape India’s energy, trade & military future
– What markets, investors, and policymakers should watch
– How India must reposition in a shifting world order

📢 Before we begin…

We just launched our official Telegram channel for serious investors:

→ Stock screeners every week
→ Breakout alerts
→ Cheat sheets from iconic investors
→ Market filters based on real-time moves

📲 Join now → telegram.me/Stockizenoffic…

1️⃣ 💣 This isn’t a peace summit. It’s a global reset.

Putin hasn’t stepped on Western soil since invading Ukraine in 2022.
He’s now landing in Alaska - Cold War symbolism.

Trump paused sanctions until Aug 20 to make this happen.
Ukraine isn’t invited. Neither is the EU.

This isn’t diplomacy. It’s backroom power brokering.

2️⃣ 🛢 India’s $35B oil advantage is at risk.

Since 2022, India has imported over $35B of discounted Russian crude.
→ Saved India ₹1.5–2.2 lakh crore in fuel subsidy burden
→ Kept petrol/diesel prices steady despite global oil shocks
→ Helped curb inflation and protect household budgets

If the West normalizes with Russia
→ That oil becomes expensive
→ India loses its biggest energy arbitrage

3️⃣ 📈 What happens if oil surges again?

Today: Brent at ~$65
If a ceasefire = sanctions lifted = oil demand jumps → $80+ likely

Impact:
– Petrol may hit ₹115-₹120/litre
– Diesel logistics costs spike
– RBI forced into hawkish stance again
– FMCG + Auto margins shrink
– Fiscal deficit stress resumes

Peace in Alaska = Inflation in India

4️⃣ ⚖️ The Tariff Trap: U.S. wants India to pick a side

Trump’s 2025 rally speech warned:
“Any nation doing backdoor business with Russia will face 50% tariffs.”

India’s refining giants (IOC, Reliance, Nayara) are re-exporting Russian oil.
→ 20–30% of refined products land in Europe
→ U.S. calls this “sanction laundering”

Tomorrow’s summit could formalize that threat.

📊If U.S. forces a choice, where should India lean?

Quote with your reasoning 👇

5️⃣ 💥 The Invisible Risk: Defense Delays

60–70% of India’s military hardware is Russian-made:
– S-400 missile systems
– Submarine engines
– Fighter jet parts
– Ammo for T-90, BMPs

What if:
→ Russia diverts weapons to its own war
→ A U.S.–Russia thaw sidelines India
→ India faces delivery delays?

The Alaska summit could trigger that pivot.

6️⃣ ⚠️ India is now balancing FOUR alliances at once

🧭 QUAD → U.S., Japan, Australia
🪖 BRICS → Russia, China, Global South
⚙️ I2U2 → Israel, U.S., UAE
🌍 G20 Chair legacy

But…
→ BRICS wants de-dollarization
→ QUAD wants Indo-Pacific dominance
→ Russia wants loyalty
→ U.S. wants strategic alignment

India’s diplomacy is overleveraged.

7️⃣ 🧠 Framework: “The Alaska Wedge”

📉 If you’re not at the negotiating table, you’re the deal being negotiated.

India isn't in Alaska. But we’re affected by:
→ Oil pricing
→ Weapon pipelines
→ Trade corridor shifts
→ Reserve currency debates
→ BRICS vs. NATO narratives

This is passive exposure to active risk.

8️⃣ 🧩 Historical Context: Cold War → Cold Profit

In the 1970s, U.S.–USSR proxy negotiations shaped:
→ Middle East oil prices
→ South Asian diplomacy
→ UN voting blocs

History is rhyming.
Only now, India is an economic powerhouse - not a bystander.

Yet we’re not in the room.

9️⃣ 🧭 Global South is watching India. Closely.

→ Brazil fears BRICS fragmentation
→ South Africa seeks energy stability
→ ASEAN sees India as a hedge

If India fumbles its stance:
→ Russia may pivot to China
→ U.S. may deepen Australia–Japan axis
→ BRICS currency ambition collapses

India is the swing vote of multipolarity.

What should India do after the Alaska Summit?

Vote + RT with your take 👇

🔟 📉 Market Map: Watch these Indian sectors this week

🔺 OMCs: Watch IOCL, BPCL, HPCL - margin compression risk
🔺 Defense: HAL, BEL, BDL - order delays possible
🔺 Shipping/Logistics: CONCOR, GAIL - cost pass-through
🔺 Currency: Rupee may weaken if trade risks spike
🔺 Sovereign Bonds: May price in inflation risk again

1️⃣1️⃣ 🧠 Investor Playbook: Be the one who prepares before the panic

→ Stay underweight in oil-heavy sectors short-term
→ Hedge for macro volatility via gold/IT/pharma
→ Watch Fed + RBI language post-summit
→ Diversify foreign exposure (USD + ASEAN)
→ Monitor Indo-Russian pipeline headlines

Risk ≠ danger. Risk = lack of clarity. This thread gives you clarity.

💬 Want More Like This?

We built 2 elite communities:
🚀 MomentumX → Swing traders & breakout setups
💰 WealthX → Long-term compounders only

📲 DM our team now → wa.me/[phone]

🧠 FINAL WORD:

“India’s challenge isn’t choosing between Russia or America.
It’s choosing when to stop sitting on the fence.”

Alaska is tomorrow.
But its impact will last decades.
Don’t wait for the news.
Understand it before it breaks.

🔁 RT this if you think India needs a seat at every peace table
🔖 Save this thread - the headlines are coming.

🙏 Thank you for checking out the thread.

If you found this helpful, please repost the first tweet and follow for more educational content.

🧠 Follow: @Stocki_zen❤️

🔁 Repost the first tweet below 👇

https://x.com/CaVivekkhatri/status/1955856530793738413