Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russia's recent creation of a salient north of Pokrovsk has been met with dismay by the Ukrainians, but with a surprising degree of caution from Russian warbloggers. They caution that it's an extended meat assault with an uncertain chance of success. ⬇️

2/ Roman Saponkov writes:

"Given the successes near Pokrovsk, I would still recommend waiting a little longer. As it turned out, reserves were withdrawn from there to another important direction."

3/ "But if nothing happens, it is a very good sign that they have learned to operate in conditions of drone warfare and a positional stalemate."

'DONTSTOPWAR' is similarly cautious:

4/ "The reports from the Pokrovsk sector sound promising, and there have been some successes, but not the ones that are being touted in the maps. Additional forces are being pulled in to help the elves, and they're continuing to fortify their lines."

5/ Svyatoslav Golikov analyses the situation in more detail:

"First. Comrade Filatov notes the systematic destruction of enemy UAVs, which leads to a decrease in the activity of kamikaze drones..."

6/ "In addition, logistics communications leading to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from the north-west have been placed under tight drone control, i.e. the combat zone is being isolated at the operational level.

7/ "At the same time, tactical links between strike UAV units and assault groups have not been sufficiently developed, and assault operations based on the principle of infiltrating gaps are mostly carried out in the usual meat grinder mode.

8/ "Second. The depth of the wedges (regardless of the fact that some of the painted over areas were drawn on credit [i.e. claimed prematurely]) may cause concern in terms of securing the flanks.

9/ "The nuances are that, on the one hand, the enemy's defence is actually quite loose and there are no forces for effective counterattacks to cut them off here and now; on the other hand, the wedges have formed in the shape of splayed fingers,…

10/ …and it is not yet clear, given the heavy losses of our infantry, whether it will be possible to completely close the cauldron, i.e. the confrontation is on thin ice on both sides.

11/ "At the same time, there are no significant movements south-west of Pokrovsk, where the offensive is stalling, and the main hope now lies specifically in these wedges.

Third. Being dizzy with success is basically a bad thing.

12/ "On the one hand, despite the obvious nervousness of the enemy in view of the developing situation, I suggest we don't forget that he is quite successfully selling us the areas of Donbas that remain under his control on credit at a very high price for us, still hoping to…

13/ …strategically drag out the war until we're worn out, and the ongoing wasteful spending of our human resources in meat grinder battles only plays into his hands.

14/ "On the other hand, the looseness of the enemy's defence in this direction reflects not only his general problems with his own human resources, but also the reservation of forces and resources for possible strikes in other directions, in particular, on the border areas.

15/ "On 2 August, we discussed this issue with a comrade and agreed that if, say, our opponents manage to break through to the Bryansk region (they just destroyed a bridge there) and gain a foothold in the forests, we will have a hard time getting them out of there.

16/ "A clear example is the Serebryansk Forest [in Ukraine]. Another comrade recently expressed similar concerns, citing the example of the Serebryansk Forest. In general, there are serious concerns among those involved about the border area.

17/ "As a recent example, I would like to remind you of Comrade Sukonkin's comments on the concentration of enemy forces in the Yunakivka area near Sumy."

'Military Informant' has a similar commentary about the factors that have made the sudden Russian advance possible:

18/ "Drones have changed the battlefield beyond recognition, turning almost every kilometer into an observable and attackable zone.

19/ "This has practically reduced to nothing the possibility of rapid mechanized breakthroughs with masses of equipment, turning the offensive into a gradual bloody steamroller with every hundred meters being bitten off the enemy.

20/ "This situation has forced the Russian command and officers on the ground to look for alternative ways to advance forward with an exit to the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

21/ "In Sudzha and Avdiivka, conveniently located pipelines were used for such operations, through which the infantry would secretly accumulate in the enemy's rear and then launch a surprise attack.

22/ "And although these were successful tactical operations, they were extremely situational - you can't lay an underground pipeline into the enemy's rear if it is not there in advance.

23/ "And now, near Pokrovsk, similar tactics are being used, only the infantry is infiltrating the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces not through pipes, but in small groups along previously reconnoitered routes through fields and plantations.

24/ "From what the enemy reports, the Russian Armed Forces, taking advantage of the holes in the Ukrainian defense, methodically bring in groups of several people at night.

25/ "The infantry groups are led by radio communication from drones, and heat-protective capes are often used to hide from Ukrainian reconnaissance copters.

26/ "As a result, as soon as a sufficient number of people accumulate in a certain place, they carry out raids on rear areas, set up ambushes for equipment along the roads, and consolidate their positions in previously safe settlements, creating the appearance of large forces.

27/ "In addition to direct damage to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such actions also cause panic, forcing the enemy to look for bypass routes and see saboteurs in everyone they meet.

28/ "This tactic worked due to the problem of personnel shortages that had been accumulating in the Ukrainian Armed Forces for months , caused by poorly going "busification" [forced conscription] and desertion.

29/ "As a result, the front line is held by fortified positions located far from each other, supported by drone operators from the rear. This feature of the Ukrainian defence was used by the Russian command against the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

30/ "However, such "infiltration" operations also have serious risks.All supplies to infantry groups remote from the front line are carried out exclusively by aerial drones, and if something goes wrong and the main forces are unable to support the stormtroopers operating in…

31/ …isolation, the enemy can crush their positions with a counterattack.

32/ "Therefore, in the near future, we should expect an attack by the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces following the infiltrated forward detachments, so as not to give the Ukrainian Armed Forces time to come to their senses and seize the initiative.

33/ "If the whole idea burns out and is implemented as planned, this means the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia directions with the possible exit of the Russian Armed Forces to the eastern flag of Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk.

34/ "But for now, I would not like to get ahead of myself." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/RSaponkov/11706
🔹 t.me/dontstopwar/21…
🔹 t.me/philologist_zo…
🔹 t.me/milinfolive/15…