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Aug 14, 2025 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is 1983.

Soviet radars detected 5 US nuclear missiles heading to Moscow.

Humanity was SECONDS from extinction.

All Soviet protocols demanded immediate retaliation.

But then Stanislav Petrov noticed something strange: 🧵 Image
Image
September 26, 1983.

Past midnight.

Filling in for a sick colleague at Serpukhov-15 - the USSR's nuclear command bunker.

Lt. Colonel Stanislav Petrov wasn't even supposed to be there.

But then the unthinkable happened... Image
Image
LAUNCH DETECTION:

1 US MISSILE

The computer screen flashed blood red.

Then: 2 missiles... 3... 4... 5.

All targeting major Soviet cities. 25 minutes to impact.

200 million Russians about to die. Protocol demanded one thing... Image
Soviet nuclear doctrine was brutally simple:

Detection = Retaliation. IMMEDIATELY.

No debate. No verification. Launch everything.

Petrov's hand moved toward the phone that would end civilization.

But then he noticed something strange...
"Why only 5 missiles?"

America had 1,000+ ICBMs. Why start Armageddon with just 5?

The new detection system cost $3 billion. State-of-the-art. Infallible.

But Petrov's gut screamed: something's wrong.

He had seconds to decide... Image
Petrov did the unthinkable.

He declared it a false alarm. Without proof. Without permission.

If wrong? 200 million dead Russians. His execution guaranteed.

The room held its breath. 15 minutes until impact...

20 minutes...

23 minutes... Image
Nothing.

No explosions. No missiles. No death.

The "attack" was sunlight reflecting off clouds - fooling Soviet satellites.

Petrov had just prevented nuclear holocaust with nothing but intuition.

You'd think he'd be a hero...
At first, stunned silence from Moscow.

Then the questions started:

"Who authorized you to decide?"

"You violated direct protocol."

"You exposed critical system failures."

The man who saved the world had just become a problem. Image
Image
The military had two choices:

1. Admit their $3 billion system almost ended humanity

2. Bury Petrov

Guess which they chose?

He was reassigned. Blacklisted. His career destroyed.

The cover-up began immediately.
1984: Petrov forced into early retirement.

Pathetic pension. No recognition. No thanks. While the world partied through the 80s and 90s, the man who saved it couldn't afford medicine.

The USSR classified the entire incident.
The truth emerged only after the Soviet collapse.

By then, Petrov lived in poverty. Bitter. Forgotten. A few Western organizations gave him token awards - decades too late.

In 2017, he died alone. The world barely noticed. Image
Petrov's last words haunt me:

"I was simply doing my job."

No. His job was to start nuclear war.

He REFUSED to do his job. That refusal saved 5 billion lives.

Sometimes heroes are the ones who say "no" when the world demands "yes." Image
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More from @GeniusGTX

Jan 25
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias: Image
1. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons. Image
2. The Sunk Cost Fallacy:

We cling to things just because we’ve already invested time or money in them.

We refuse to quit a bad job or project because we "can't let that effort go to waste."

Don't throw good time after bad. Image
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Jan 20
PHILOSOPHICAL RAZORS are a mental rule of thumbs that "shaves off" bad explanations and stupidity in your decision-making.

Here are the 8 sharpest Razors to upgrade your thinking instantly: 🧵 Image
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1/ Occam's Razor

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

If you hear hoofbeats in Texas, think horses, not zebras.

Don't overcomplicate solutions. Complexity is often just a mask for confusion. Image
2/ Hanlon's Razor

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

The guy cutting you off isn't evil; he's probably just distracted or a bad driver.

This razor saves you from unnecessary anger and paranoia. Image
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Jan 19
He was the most powerful man on earth:

Marcus Aurelius.

He wrote "Meditations" to keep himself sane while ruling an empire. He never intended for it to be published.

Here are 8 of his best short ideas from one of the greatest stoics in history: Image
Image
1. The Obstacle is the Way

"The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way."

Stop wishing for things to be easy.
Use the challenge as fuel.

The struggle isn't blocking the path, it *is* the path.
2. On Anxiety

"Today I escaped anxiety. Or no, I discarded it, because it was within me, not outside."

Stress doesn't come from your boss, the market, or the traffic. It comes from your judgment of them.

Change the judgment, remove the stress.
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Jan 17
I used to be stressed out of my mind and wasted years making terrible decisions.

Then I spent hours studying Charlie Munger’s letters to learn his mental models on decision-making & problem solving.

Here're are the top 5 I've collected: 🧵 Image
Image
Why do you need Mental Models?

Most people try to solve problems with raw intelligence. It's exhausting.

Munger says: "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

You need a toolbox. Models don't tell you what to think, but how to think.

Here're Munger's best 5: Image
1. Inversion

"Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."

Don't just look for the secret to success. Figure out exactly what causes failure—and avoid that.

It is far easier to avoid stupidity than it is to achieve genius.
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Jan 16
A "Paradox" is a statement that seems contradictory but actually contains a hidden truth.

Once you see them, your worldview changes forever.

Here are my 10 favorite mind-bending paradoxes that will upgrade your thinking & decision making: 🧵

1. The Paradox of Choice Image
1. The Paradox of Choice:

Logic says more options = more freedom. Psychology says more options = anxiety and analysis paralysis.

When you have too many choices, you are less likely to pick one, and less satisfied with the one you do pick.

Constraints create creativity. Image
2. The Stockdale Paradox:

Named after Admiral James Stockdale, a prisoner of war for 7 years.

He survived by doing two contradictory things:

• Maintaining faith that he would prevail in the end.
• Confronting the brutal facts of his current reality.

Blind optimism kills. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 15
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵
1. The Spotlight Effect:

We constantly overestimate how much people notice our appearance or mistakes.

The truth? Everyone is too worried about themselves to worry about you.

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2. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

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Read 15 tweets

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