Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map gives you a hint: It's on the edge between farmland and forest. In fact, it's 200 km north of the beginning of the forested area. Why?
Horse archers.
This is the Mongol invasion in the 1200s, which created the biggest empire the world has ever seen. But it's elongated. Why this very long strip, and not farther north or south?
Because of the steppe nomad lifestyle:
• Grasslands can't sustain agriculture
• But horses and sheep can eat grass, and humans can eat them
• So nomads move around to feed herds
• This makes them very mobile. They can travel >100km per day
These nomadic horseback archers could move fast, prod the enemy (in farms), find the weak spot, and attack
The enemy couldn’t easily retaliate because the nomads would simply withdraw too fast
When the steppe nomads attacked farmlands... They literally harvested farmers!
~3M ppl Slavs were taken as slaves in the 15th and 16th centuries!
~3% of Russia's population!
You might have guessed it: "slave" comes from "Slav" as they were the main type of slave in Byzantium!
But horses can't move fast in forests, and arrows can't fly through trees
So Moscow is 200 km north of the grassland-forest limit: North enough to get protection from trees, but south enough to still have some farmland
But why on this specific point of the border?
All rivers in the region run north to south, so they didn't stop the nomadic warriors coming from the south every summer. But Moscow has not 1, but 2 layers of defense river defense:
• The Ugra–Oka
• The Moskva
These were hard for steppe warriors to pass
Since this is at the northern edge of what nomads could raid, it was already hard to reach. The Muscovites then built walls and forts, using rivers wherever possible, like the Great Wall of China or the Roman Limes.
Over time, they built several layers of walls, pushing the border south. This literally took centuries though!
During all that time, however, the other side of Moscow was nearly empty: The north just had the Taiga forest
So Moscow conquered in the 1400s all of what used to be the Republic of Novgorod, a trade center with the Baltic.
And why would Russia be interested in that?
To take over Novgorod's trade, of course
But what did Novgorod produce that was so valuable to the rest of the Baltic?
These tiny animals
And their furs
Moscow took over the Sable trade, and with it all its wealth
This was so valuable that Muscovites then decided to expand to the other big region with plenty of furs: Siberia
Russia's eastward expansion was lightning fast: in less than a century it reached the Pacific Ocean!
This is because Siberia is too cold for farming, so population densities were low
And like Spain in America, a majority of locals died of disease
This is how we get to the crazy fact that Russia reached the Pacific in the 1600s, before it reached the Baltic or the Black Seas!
It took centuries to conquer the south: Russians needed layers of forts➕gunpowder to stop nomadic warriors
And to its west Moscow had strong competitors:
• Strong kingdoms on the Baltic coast
• Hungary in the Hungarian Plain, the Ottomans in Turkey
• Poland-Lithuania
So this is why Moscow is where it is:
• North enough to be protected from nomadic steppe warriors
• South enough to still have some farmland
• West enough to get close to Baltic & Black sea trades for their furs
• But not further west because of competition
All of this fueled by harvesting: of humans from southern nomads, of furry animals from Moscow
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980