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Anders Åslund Profile picture
@anders_aslund
Aug 14 • 6 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Whoever writes that "all wars end with negotiations" should be refuted by an decent foreign affairs journal, because it is not true in modern times.
1. World War I ended with revolution in Russia in1917 and Germany in 1918. /1
2. World War II ended with the capitulations of Germany & Japan, because from January 1943 at their Casablanca summit Churchill & Roosevelt agreed not to negotiate with Hitler. /2
3. After World War II, a large number of imperialist or colonialist wars have taken place & in every major case, the imperialist power has lost:
France in Vietnam & Algeria;
The UK in India;
The US in Vietnam & Afghanistan;
The USSR in Afghanistan. /3
4. Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine is one of the worst colonialist wars.
Russia has probably lost 200,000 killed soldiers to compare with only 15,000 for the USSR in Afghanistan.
Russia spends 7% of its GDP on military aggression, while Ukraine spends 50% on its defense...
Ukraine spends that much because this war is existential for Ukraine. Either Ukraine wins, or much of the population will have to flee.
In Russia, this war is only existential for Putin himself. Remember, he will soon be 73, almost as dement as Trump. /5
Thus, Ukraine cannot afford to lose & Russia has no major interest in winning.
So who will win?
I continue to bet on Ukraine and Europe does so ever more, while Trump does not know what he is doing. /6

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 13
Various madhatters try to claim that I oppose diplomacy by opposing the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
No, try to understand!
1. Trump is not defending Ukraine, the US or the West but submitting to Putin as we know from Helsinki 2018. That is not in the interest of the West. /1
2. Trump is not only subservient to Putin but as dumb & uninformed as they come.
3. The whole idea of the meeting is based on Witkoff's misunderstanding that Putin was prepared to give up parts of the Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts Russia holds. Wrong idea, no basis. /2
4. Trump has not formulated any idea what he wants to achieve apart from trading territories, which is a Witkoff misunderstanding. Why hold a meeting without purpose?
5. Putin has clear aims:
A. Claim that Russia is still a great power.
B. Be allowed into the US. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 11
The incompetence of the Trump administration is incredible.
Witkoff has now met Putin five times in long meetings without any own interpreter or assistant.
He seems to have misunderstood everything.
1. The US demand was full ceasefire, but Putin offered only partial ceasefire. /1
2. Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Zaporizhzhe & Kherson oblasts, but Witkoff thought he offered Russia to withdraw.
3. Witkoff thought Putin agreed a trilateral meeting with Trump & Zelensky, but he did not. /2
The only thing Witkoff appears to have understood was that Putin wanted the well fortified remaining Ukrainian-held quarter of Donetsk oblast (Sloviansk & Kramatorsk), which would be a major blow to Ukraine's whole defense. /3
Read 5 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 8
Trump is so predictable.
His "threat" of sanctions on Russia was merely an invitation to a one-on-one meeting with Putin & a way to block sanctions on Russia demanded by 85 senators.
Now Trump has set the stage for his selling out of Ukraine behind its back. /1
Ukraine will be given no seat or voice.
Putin will make no real concessions, possibly limiting warfare where Ukraine has an advantage, which Trump will try to enforce on Ukraine.
Trump is likely to de facto accept Russia's current occupation of Ukrainian territories. /2
Trump has already given up any claim on Ukrainian territorial integrity.
He has stopped all US aid to Ukraine & all US complaints about Russia violating international law.
He wants to end Western sanctions on Russia, but the remaining West can block that. /3
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 7
A few observations on Trump's trade war:
1. There is no justification for Trump's trade aggression.
The cause of the US current account deficit is its excessive budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP a year, leading to a public debt of currently 124% of GDP properly counted. /1
2. The US has not been "ripped off" by everybody but benefitted from benevolent international inflows of some $32 trillion to finance thanks to its exorbitant privilege of the USD & US treasuries, seen as safe assets. /2
3. Trump's tariffs are not "reciprocal" but unilateral aggression against allies & friends.
4. The tariffs are enormously high at a current average of 18.3% (Yale budget lab), the highest since the 1930s, rising from 2.5%. /3
Read 11 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 6
Trump appears to be guided by the mercantilism of Jean Baptiste Colbert, the minister of finance of Louis XIV from 1665-1683 who revised the tariff system and expanded industrial policy. /1
Colbert's idea as that the state should rule in the economic realm & that the interests of the state as identified by the king were superior to everyone else. /2
After half a year of Trump's uninhibited madness, we must regretfully note that the US has no effective checks or balances. The mad king is allowed to do whatever he wants. /3
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Aug 3
How Trump's tariffs are likely to affect US consumer prices.
Trump's tariffs have already started causing higher consumer prices in the US, but only partially.
Importers have purchased large stocks in Q1 & appear to raise prices only for new imports. /1
The evidence from Trump's tariff hikes last time suggests that eventually importers pass on all the cost of the higher tariffs to end consumers.
This means that tariff hikes are not single events but a process of rising prices as previously imported stocks run down. /2
That is a gradual inflationary process.
The goods inflation caused by the tariffs will be balanced by the deceleration in economic activity they will also cause.
Unemployment may rise, but salaries will be supported by the decline in the foreign labor force. /3
Read 5 tweets

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