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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 14 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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Trump: Tomorrow I meet Putin. More important is the second meeting—Putin, Zelenskyy, me, maybe some European leaders. We’ll see.

I think Putin will make peace, Zelenskyy will make peace. If they can get along, it’ll be great.

1/

Q: Will you offer Putin access to rare minerals to end the war?

Trump: We’ll see what happens. The meeting is big—important for Russia, important for us. For us, it matters because we’ll save a lot of lives. 2/

Trump: We’re not giving Ukraine any money—we supply equipment, NATO pays 100%+, and I raised NATO spending from 2% to 5% of GDP.

They owe us $2B, just sent $1B. Biden gave $350B, got nothing. We signed a rare earth deal to get years of supply and recoup costs. 3/

Trump: I’ve solved six wars in just over six months—one lasted 37 years, Congo–Rwanda 31 years.

Pakistan–India had 6–7 planes shot down, close to nuclear—we stopped it. Made peace in all six.

I thought Ukraine–Russia would be easier. It’s the hardest. 4/

Q: Will you offer Putin rare earths?

Trump: We used them as payment for the $350B wasted in Ukraine.

Europe spent $100B and now pays for everything. We spend no money, only time to end the war.

Rare earths matter less—I’m focused on saving lives. 5/

Q: Could your peace incentives reward Putin for invading Ukraine and send the wrong signal?

Trump: No. This war should never have started—it didn’t under me, not discussed for four years. I saw it coming after I left. Everyone’s to blame, including Putin. 6/

Q: Does Putin have a strong hand tomorrow?

Trump: If I weren’t president, he’d take all of Ukraine. CNN calls his visit here a win for him, I’d say the opposite. I think Putin wants a deal. This war should’ve never happened. I’m president, and he’s not going to mess with me.

7/

Q: Would you cut NATO troops in places like Poland to get Russia to agree to peace?

Trump: That hasn’t been put before me. I’ll think about it later, but it’s not on the table now. 8/

Q: Is anything less than an unconditional ceasefire a U.S. win tomorrow?

Trump: Goal is to set the table for the next meeting, maybe in Alaska. I’ll know in minutes if talks are good or bad—bad ends fast, good gets us peace soon. 9X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 15

Putin calls North Korean troops in Ukraine “heroic” in a letter to Kim Jong-un on Korea’s liberation anniversary, The Guardian.

He says they helped “liberate” Russia’s Kursk region from Ukrainian forces and frames it as proof of strong military ties. 1/

Russia'a Duma speaker Volodin delivered the letter to Kim in Pyongyang, thanked him for sending “excellent soldiers” to the Kursk operations.

He added that Russia would always remember the North Korean troops “who fought at the cost of their lives in Russia”. 2/

KCNA (state-run news) says ~10,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Kursk in 2024 with artillery, missiles, and rocket systems.

South Korea reports 600 killed and thousands wounded. It's intel warns Pyongyang may send more troops. 3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 15

Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Dobropillya, advancing several miles deep — a rare gain in a war where Russia holds 20% of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said troops carried only handheld weapons, highlighting the unusual, lightly equipped assault, WSJ. 1/

Ukraine is counterattacking small Russian groups that breached its first defense line. Zelenskyy called the area “the most difficult” on the front, noting some Russians were killed or captured.

He said the push aims to show Russia advancing and Ukraine losing. 2/

Putin seeks a battlefield edge before talks in Alaska, hoping to increase pressure on Kyiv-held cities in eastern Donetsk.

At the summit, the Kremlin will push for U.S. recognition of its control over Donetsk and other occupied Ukrainian regions. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 15

Trump: Putin’s trying to set a stage [with more drone strikes on Ukraine].

In his mind, it helps him make a better deal if they can continue the killing. It actually hurts him. Maybe it's just his fabric or genes. 1/

Trump: Putin's bringing a lot of business people from Russia [to Alaska]. That's good.

I like that because they want to do business. But they won’t until we get the war settled. 2/

Q: What's the difference between calls and face-to-face meeting with Putin?

Trump: He's a smart guy. He’s been doing it for a long time, so have I. We get along. There's a good respect level on both sides. Something's going to come of it. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 14

Bloomberg: Russia’s war economy is faltering just as Putin heads to Alaska to meet Trump on an Ukraine deal.

Oil revenues down, deficit at a 30-year high, inflation and interest rates surging, debt crisis warnings from inside Moscow.

1/

War spending will reach nearly $172B in 2025 (~8% of GDP), says Alexandra Prokopenko (Carnegie).

Most costs are hidden in bank balance sheets, with lenders forced to issue low-interest loans to defense firms regardless of profitability.

2/

Harvard’s Craig Kennedy estimates corporate debt in military sectors jumped 71% ($460B) between Jul 2022–Nov 2024.

Much of it is opaque, with relaxed oversight on bad loans to defense contractors.

3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 14

Trump: I think Putin wants to get it done. I feel he wanted the whole thing. If it weren’t me, he would not talk to anybody. I believe now he’s convinced he’s going to make a deal, we’ll see in the meeting. 1/

Trump: Everything has an impact. I told India we’d charge them for buying Russian oil. They called to meet. Losing your second and first largest customers matters. He respects our country now. The market’s raging, companies moving back. Golden age of America. 2/

Trump: Economic incentives and disincentives are very important. Russia has tremendous potential, largest land, great wealth. Oil and gas is very profitable. They have advantages over most countries. Economic sanctions and incentives are very powerful. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Aug 14

McFaul: Trump’s actions show no real strategy. He cut planned sanctions on India from 100% to 25%, delayed them, dropped China. His approach appeases Putin, pressures Ukraine, and has emboldened Putin to demand Ukraine leave land it still controls. 1/

McFaul: I see no sign Witkoff coordinates with others like envoy Kellogg. He flies to Moscow, treats Putin as a friend, acts more like a mailman than a negotiator, and may have even misunderstood Putin’s offer. The system needs tightening. 2/

McFaul: Putin is driven by ideas, not money or transactions. He aims to expand the Russian empire, thinking history will remember him for it. This isn’t about NATO; he sees no security threat from Ukraine. 3/