Nubank's results are INSANE. Every other bank CEO must look at these and be like... HOW?
Here's the breakdown...
* 122.7 million customers (+4.1M net additions)
* $3.7 billion revenue (+40% YoY)
* $637 million net income (+42% YoY)
* $12.2 monthly revenue per active customer (+18% YoY)
* $0.80 cost to serve per customer
* 83.2% monthly activity rate
That's a benchmark every other organization in finance should print out on their wall. Only webank in China (with 494m users) can beat.
The unit economics *almost* don't make sense:
- $0.80 cost to serve each customer
- $12.20 revenue per customer/month
- That's 15x return 🤯
Most banks struggle to hit 3x - That's the benefit of self-owned technology and a branchless servicing model.
Geographic Split:
* Brazil: 107.3M customers (60% of adult population)
* Mexico: 12M customers (13% of adult population)
* Colombia: 3.4M customers (10% of adult population)
That says to me, the newer markets are taking longer to penetrate. Where's the next growth engine coming from? Not many 200m + populations around 👀
Most people think stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized deposits are fighting to the death. They're not. They're building the same highway.
Here's what 99% of debate gets wrong:
These aren't competing technologies.
They're solving different problems for different people:
🧵
Think of it like this:
- Stablecoins = Highway for the unbanked (or global south x global south trade)
- Tokenized Deposits = On-ramp for Fortune 500s
- CBDCs = Settlement layer for central banks
All three go onchain.
All three win.
The GENIUS Act was an inflection point and I've noticed tier-1 banks completely flip their approach.
GSIBs like Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. JP Morgan is now actively becoming a partner bank to the stablecoin sector as off ramps (payments access).
It doesn't take a giant leap to see them go from supporting with Tokenized Deposits.
While everyone is debating Stablecoins. Pay by Bank is quietly becoming a FORCE in payments.
TrueLayer just launched Pay by Bank with Stripe in Germany.
But here's the timeline that explains why this matters:
2019: "What's Pay by Bank?"
2021: "Interesting experiment in the UK"
2023: "We should probably test this"
2024: Every major PSP picks their dance partner
2025: The invasion begins
Stripe + TrueLayer aren't just expanding to Germany.
They're taking the fight directly to Adyen + Tink's strongest market.
The numbers that explain why this was inevitable:
→ TrueLayer processes €1.4B annually in Germany
→ Merchants see 42% conversion uplift with Pay by Bank
→ Card fees: 1.5-2.9% vs Pay by Bank: 0.1-0.3%
Why did Kalshi just raise $185m at a $2bn valuation more than DOUBLE Polymarket's recent reported $1bn?
- Polymarket dominated election coverage.
- Had 10X the volume.
- Every journalist quoted their odds.
- They owned the narrative.
- But they can't touch US users.
The biggest prediction market in history... banned from its biggest market.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and able to advertise to US customers.
But what about prediction markets generally? Isn't it just gambling?
When you can't afford a house, can't trust institutions, can't build wealth through traditional means... why not bet on elections?
This is financial nihilism pricing in.
The social contract broke.
Prediction markets filled the void.
Young Americans are gambling because the "legitimate" path to wealth feels rigged anyway. Same odds, different casino.
But institutions see something else entirely.
- Paradigm didn't invest in sports betting.
- They invested in the infrastructure for conditional finance.
- Prediction markets are just conditional settlement rails.
🚨 BREAKING: Revolut — the neobank with 50M customers — is quietly building its own stablecoin.
Does everyone need their own stablecoin? Can this threaten Circle and Tether's dominance?
Revolut has a distribution advantage:
- 50M active customers
- Full banking in 30+ countries (EU + UK + MX)
- Live crypto exchange already running (Revolut X)
- Crypto support in their core product
Is this a good business case?
If they got to $7.5B in stablecoin assets at current treasury yield that's ~$300M+ annual revenue
- Tether made $5.2B profit last year.
- Circle has to give away most of its profit for distribution
- Revolut *already has distribution*
Visa wants to give AI Agents "tokens" so they can pay without you ever seeing a checkout page.
Visa's CEO told investors this is their #1 priority.
Here's how it will work 👇
Imagine telling your Agent.
"I want a signed Pedro Pascal shirt from The Last of Us" don't spend more than $100" -
Then you tap your phone.
The next thing you know, the payment is complete.
Let's unpack the flow as I understood it 👀
1. Tap a card to a device to get a token for their AI Agent 2. The AI Agent registers with the network as a "trusted wallet" in the same way Apple Pay can register with networks and processors 3. The user gives the AI Agent a mandate (Find a Pedro Pascal shirt, don't spend more than $100) 4. The Auth instructions are finalized ($100 budget, Pedro shirt) 5. The Auth instructions define when step-up or biometric authentication is required (e.g. > $100, or some level of fraud risk detected) 6. The auth instructions are matched between the Agent, and the network at the Merchant (e.g. This agent has a mandate to buy for a max of $100 this SKU) 7. The payment is complete. BUT, Liability remains with the merchant for fraud (!!)