Few #retailsales takeaways:
1) Headline sls +0.5% vs +0.6% touch soft
2) Control group +0.5% vs +0.4% exp (ctl gp is the portion that flows into GDP) touch firm; pretty close to exp
3) Retail sales nominal not real, so big number masks price hikes or importantly tariffs
1/
1) Headline sls +0.5% vs +0.6% touch soft
2) Control group +0.5% vs +0.4% exp (ctl gp is the portion that flows into GDP) touch firm; pretty close to exp
3) Retail sales nominal not real, so big number masks price hikes or importantly tariffs
1/
4) Whisper higher going into print as cred card data hinted strength in late July; back to school is 2nd biggest selling season
5) Tariff related strength in furniture +1.4%; vehicles +1.6%
6) Weakness in bldg materials -1.0%; hlth care +0.4%
2/
5) Tariff related strength in furniture +1.4%; vehicles +1.6%
6) Weakness in bldg materials -1.0%; hlth care +0.4%
2/
Retail sales ~1/3 of consumer spending in the US, but it is the most volatile part. Biggest risk is tariffs tax consumers forcing them to cut spending on services to buy higher cost retail items. Still, today's release looks decent for consumption which is growing at mod rate.
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