Thread by @Gokul_Sahni

"Trump’s actions have disregarded several of India’s core foreign policy concerns, crossing sensitive redlines that previous U.S. administrations tended to respect." 1/19

https://twitter.com/HappymonJacob/status/1956226641480372671

"The US once treated India as an important American partner in Asia. Today, India faces the highest current U.S. tariff rate, of 50 percent—an ostensible punishment for India’s purchase of Russian oil.. India finds itself dealing with a higher tariff rate than even China.." 2/19

"For the moment, New Delhi has decided to wait out the storm, carefully wording its responses to try not to inflame the situation further while signaling to a domestic audience that it is not simply submitting to the White House." 3/19

"The implications of Trump’s bullying for India’s grand strategy are profound: Trump’s foreign policy has upended New Delhi’s key geopolitical assumptions and shaken the foundations of the U.S.-Indian partnership." 4/19

"And yet Trump’s actions won’t encourage a great revision in Indian foreign policy. Instead, New Delhi will survey the shifting geopolitical landscape and likely decide that what it needs is more productive relationships, not fewer." 5/19

"Now its foreign policy community stresses a commitment to multialignment, which consists of the diversification of partnerships, the refusal to join military alliances, the promotion of a multipolar world order in which no single superpower or pair of great powers is.." 6/19

"predominant, and a willingness to engage in issue-based cooperation with a wide variety of actors across geopolitical fault lines.

This policy is driven both by pragmatism and by the hope that India can serve as a pole in the order to come." 7/19

"And if the United States sometimes behaved in South Asia in ways that rankled India (for instance, when it did nothing to stop the ouster of a pro-India leader in Bangladesh in 2024), Indian officials still perceived American involvement in the region as largely beneficial.."

"and confirmation that the United States saw the subcontinent as a key front in its larger competition with China. India much preferred the occasionally irritating involvement in South Asia of a faraway superpower to the aggression and ambition of the aspiring hegemon next door."

"Instead of girding itself for great-power competition, the White House is scouring the world for short-term gains. Through that lens, Washington has much more to gain from China than it does from India.." 10/19

"Washington’s revised approach to great-power competition has not only transformed its own policy toward New Delhi but has also influenced the choices and decisions of other major players—with significant implications for India." 11/19

"Indeed, Moscow feels a diminishing obligation to New Delhi and is unwilling to offer more support than it receives, which explains its lukewarm backing during India’s clash with Pakistan in May. Russia’s public statements at the time were vague.." 12/19

"India’s position of not siding with either Russia or Ukraine, a stand born out of the policy of multialignment, didn’t satisfy either Russia or Western governments, and so nobody stood with India when it faced a crisis." 13/19

"🇮🇳 imagined that it would benefit from great-power competition, maneuvering between 🇨🇳🇷🇺 & 🇺🇸 to its own advantage. It worked until the dynamics of that competition changed dramatically. 🇮🇳 saw itself as a central player in Asia. Trump has disabused 🇮🇳 officials of that notion."

"This is not just India’s plight. The story in Europe and among American treaty allies in Asia is similar. In that shared doubt about the United States, however, lies a potential salve for India’s injured foreign policy." 15/19

"India could strengthen partnerships with European countries and major Asian powers, such as 🇯🇵 & 🇰🇷, who face their own balancing dilemmas because of the unreliability of the Trump administration. It could also seek to cultivate, or at least signal, closer ties to 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺.."

"India will survive this geopolitical whirlwind with some deft diplomacy and patience, but this turbulent period is likely to have several long-term consequences for New Delhi’s foreign policy and strategic outlook. Bilateral relations between India & the US will suffer acutely."

"After decades of abating, anti-Americanism is once again on the rise within the Indian foreign policy community. For an Indian foreign policy establishment that is doggedly consistent in its commitment to the status quo, Trump is a constant puzzle." 18/19

"India’s policy of multialignment has just undergone a geopolitical stress test and emerged rather winded. But Indian policymakers are not concluding that they should abandon it; to the contrary, they will fortify it." 19/19