Thread by @emilkastehelmi

According to Ukrainian 1st Corps (Azov), the situation east of Dobropillia has been stabilized and the Russians have been pushed out of six villages. They also reported that the combined Russian losses in the area are 385 men, 37 vehicles, 2 AFVs and 1 tank.

A few thoughts: 1/🧵

It is evident that this operation was not merely a few infiltration groups slipping past Ukrainian lines only to be destroyed. While it may have begun as a lighter operation, Russian forces were prepared to exploit breakthroughs, successfully advancing into the Ukrainian rear. 2/

If the reported losses are accurate, it implies multiple Russian battalions were engaged in the battle, with many still fighting, as Russia has not lost all gained territory. The Russians are now likely trying to consolidate and defend the southern part of the corridor. 3/

Ukrainians rapidly deployed forces to Dobropillia from multiple directions and the situation was stabilized relatively quickly. Had these forces failed to repel the infantry assault's spearhead, it would have been a deeply alarming sign of deteriorated Ukrainian capabilities. 4/

The Ukrainian response suggests that there were concerns that the attack could have escalated into a broader issue. Similar tactical breakthroughs can happen elsewhere in the near future, as the issues which enabled this event still persist and can’t be fixed quickly. 5/

The situation is still unclear. There isn’t a lot of verifiable information or video material. The Ukrainian group @Deepstate_UA published a map depicting even more liberated areas, suggesting some Russians are currently encircled. 6/

In my last thread I stated that we did not see a breakthrough at the operational level – which is still correct. However, after discussing with @KofmanMichael and others, I think “tactical breaktrough” is a proper term to describe the situation. 7/

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1955345969282723909

The Ukrainian defence did not fully collapse. Some level of control was retained while preventing further chaos. However, multiple defence lines were penetrated, Ukrainians were forced to react, and the situation could not be stabilized solely by the forces in the area. 8/

The battle is still ongoing, so further assessment is currently not possible. Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the situation closely. Our interactive map can be found here. 9/9

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…