Thread by @hathyogi31

ANOTHER FAILURE FOR MODI! USA call off the trade deal with India.
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LOL! its not what its looks like. Actually India has drawn the RED LINE: Farmers First, America Later. Read the entire post to know the latest updates

In a bold and unequivocal message, India has drawn a line in the sand: the interests of Indian farmers are non-negotiable. When it comes to agriculture and dairy, New Delhi has made it crystal clear that American products will not be allowed to flood the Indian market. Limited concessions already exist—like apples and almonds—but beyond that, the door remains firmly shut.

This position was reiterated by Prime Minister Modi himself, reinforcing the government’s stance: no compromise on farmer livelihoods.

But this tough stand has come at a cost. The much-anticipated sixth round of India–US trade negotiations, originally scheduled for August 25–29, has been put on hold. Washington abruptly announced it would not be sending officials, effectively derailing the timeline.

Coincidentally—or perhaps not—this postponement aligns with a new American tariff regime. Starting August 27, the United States is set to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s purchases of Russian oil and defense equipment. This means India could effectively face 50% tariffs in the American market. While the existing 25% is already painful, doubling it could amount to shutting India out of the U.S. marketplace altogether.

President Donald Trump, however, dropped a hint that he may not move forward with these “secondary tariffs.” Whether that was a strategic bluff or a genuine retreat remains to be seen.

The Trade War Reality

The bigger question is not just about tariffs—it is about trust. Washington has increasingly turned into a transactional partner, and New Delhi has stopped expecting America to behave like a strategic ally. The “trust factor” that once held the relationship together has weakened.

So, what are India’s options?

According to The Diplomat and renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs, New Delhi has three clear strategies to navigate this storm:

1. Negotiation—but on India’s Terms

India has been open to talks, but not at the cost of compromising its agricultural sector. Already, 55% of American goods enter the Indian market at concessional tariffs. Beyond that, concessions can be discussed—but dairy and agriculture remain off-limits.

Unlike Japan, South Korea, or the European Union—who bend under U.S. security dependence—India is self-reliant in defense and does not need to capitulate. New Delhi has made it clear: no hasty, one-sided agreements.

2. Reset with China—Cautious but Pragmatic

The second lever India is pulling is a recalibration of ties with China. Recently, Beijing lifted export restrictions on urea—a lifeline for Indian farmers—signaling goodwill. Talks are also ongoing regarding rare earth supplies and technology partnerships.

▪️Yet, deep concerns remain:

▪️Border disputes are unresolved.

▪️Trade imbalance exceeds $100 billion.

Strategic rivalry is unavoidable, as India aims to replace China as the next global manufacturing hub.

Still, shared pressure from U.S. tariffs has created an opening. Both Asian civilizations, with thousands of years of coexistence, may find a “middle ground” partnership in sectors like green energy, AI, and advanced chips—while keeping rivalry in check.

But India is clear: China can be one partner among many, never the only one.

3. Diversification—the Smart Play

The most critical strategy is diversification of trade partners. Overdependence on either Washington or Beijing is dangerous.

India is already moving fast on this front:

▪️FTAs with the UK, Australia, UAE, Peru, Chile, Oman, and New Zealand are progressing.

▪️Engagement with Africa, Latin America, and West Asia is expanding.

▪️Even ASEAN nations, once tethered to America and China, are now seeking India as an alternative partner.

Global buyers at Chinese trade fairs have begun showing new interest in Indian suppliers, proof that diversification is not just India’s need—it is a global necessity.

The Reform Imperative

For India to fully capitalize, structural reforms are crucial. Prime Minister Modi recently hinted at rationalizing GST slabs into just two categories, a move welcomed by investors. But deeper reforms in labor, land, and bureaucracy remain stalled—blocked by farmer lobbies, unions, or political compulsions. Without these, India risks missing the window of opportunity.

The Road Ahead

America’s unilateral tariffs may end up backfiring, uniting BRICS and pushing India and China toward cautious cooperation. Yet, India’s best bet lies in multi-alignment—balancing relations with the U.S., managing rivalry and cooperation with China, deepening ties with Russia, and opening new markets across continents.

The world is fragmenting into trade blocs, but India, with its 1.4 billion people and rising industrial base, has the chance to position itself as a swing state in global trade.

The message from New Delhi is loud and clear:

Farmers come first.

Dependence on one superpower is over.

India’s future lies in diversification, reform, and strategic patience.

The trade war may just prove to be the crucible that forges India’s economic destiny.