Yumi🌸 Profile picture
Aug 17 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
How to Adapt to the Market 🧵

Many people misunderstand the phrase “adapting to the market.”
It does not mean adjusting your strategy to fit the current market trend.
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To “adapt to the market” is not to change your approach constantly in response to short-term fluctuations.
It means simply to wait.

By waiting, you can consistently trade under the same conditions, making “market changes” irrelevant to you.

No matter how much the chart moves, you don’t need to capture every swing.
You only wait for the conditions that fit your plan and trade exclusively in those moments.
3/5
Those who read my blog know this already: I build scenarios in advance, wait for them, and then execute the same trade over and over only when those scenarios play out.

No matter how much the chart moves, anything that doesn’t match my setup is irrelevant to me.
I never think “It’s a waste not to capture this move” and then create a new strategy just to chase it.

In fact, I don’t even feel that the market is “changing.”
Yes, the chart in front of me moves, and if you want to call that change, fine—but at a higher level of abstraction, all you ever see are trends and ranges repeating themselves.

I see trading as the acceptance of short-term randomness and the pursuit of long-term consistency, letting the law of large numbers play out.
From this abstract and long-term perspective, the market doesn’t really appear to change.

In the end, within the repeating cycles of trends and ranges, my rules carve out the same setups for me, and I trade only those points.
Everything else is irrelevant.
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“So what should you do when the market changes?”

As I said, the chart moves, and if you choose to call that change, then yes—the market changes every day.
But in that sense, when the market “changes,” all you have to do is wait for it to “change again.”
There is no need to force trades where your rules don’t apply.

People often repeat the phrase “No strategy works forever,” but many misunderstand it to mean “a strategy suddenly stops working and never works again.”
That’s not it.
Using a trend-following strategy as an example, it simply means “a trend doesn’t last forever, but another trend will eventually appear.”

Trends don’t last forever.
But they always return.
That is why you wait.
5/5
To “adapt to the market” is nothing more than to wait.

If you misunderstand this, you’ll be tossed around by randomness, trapped in an endless loop of tweaking and improvement.
For probability to work in your favor, you must act with consistency and follow your rules.

The market does move every day, and in that sense, it does change.
But that is precisely why you should not try to capture every move.
Instead, wait for your favorable conditions to appear again.
That is what it means to adapt.

Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.

E-book
payhip.com/YumiSakura/col…

Paperback
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
a.co/d/fXmRhIa

【Trading Psychology】
a.co/d/d0QJMxK

Hope these insights help your trading journey😊

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More from @samuraipips358

Aug 16
The game of probability is really a game of “how much you can believe”🧵

You have no guarantee about the future, yet you must keep acting with consistency — and probability only favors those who can do so.
How much trust have you built?
That’s what’s always being tested.
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2/5
There is never a guarantee about future results.

You don’t know whether the trade in front of you will end in a win or a loss.
That’s precisely why you must keep betting on your statistical edge, letting the law of large numbers work through a big enough sample size to draw out that edge.

What’s required of a trader who operates with probabilistic thinking is consistency.
And consistency is only possible through belief.

If you don’t start from the premise that your strategy has positive expectancy, you won’t be able to stay consistent.
Without that trust, every small losing streak will make you doubt — “Has my strategy stopped working? Has the market changed?” — and you’ll start making changes.
3/5
How much trust you’ve built in your strategy’s edge beforehand is what gets tested — through your long-term perspective and consistency.

Many people misunderstand, thinking it’s their strategy or the market that’s being tested through wins and losses.
Saying “my strategy stopped working” or “the market has changed,” they convince themselves they’ve “learned something” and quickly start tweaking their system — abandoning consistency.

Most people believe they’re in a position to judge the validity of their strategy.
But in truth, the one being judged is you.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 15
The quality of your trades is refined through waiting 🧵

Your job is to “click.”
But that simple action becomes the best possible click only through waiting.
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2/5
In trading, a winning trade isn’t necessarily a good trade, and a losing trade isn’t necessarily a bad one.

What matters is whether you’ve prepared properly in advance, followed the rules of a strategy with an edge, and executed your process with consistency.
And that execution is built through waiting.

In other words, the quality of your trades is sharpened by waiting.
3/5
Build your scenario beforehand, and when that scenario unfolds, simply execute it faithfully.
Your role is to watch the chart and, if the conditions are met, just click.

But many traders can’t wait.
They act when conditions aren’t met, or fail to act when they are — unable to maintain consistency.
No matter how much of an edge your strategy has, if you can’t repeat consistent actions, you can’t collect a consistent trade sample.
Without that, the law of large numbers never comes into play, and your strategy’s edge never materializes.

Entering a trade, extending profits — all of it requires waiting.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 14
There is no such thing as a perfect strategy or perfect rules🧵

You will lose.
Losing trades are part of trading.
But if you can make them part of your success, there’s no problem.
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2/5
Many traders desperately want to avoid losing trades.

But this is inevitable.
Every strategy will have losses, and losing streaks are unavoidable.
Short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness, and you cannot escape it.

If you hate losing and chase perfection, you are taking on the impossible—and will never succeed.

You must accept that you will lose, that your strategy will not always deliver winning outcomes, and you must operate with that assumption.
3/5
Risk management matters because it allows you to operate a system with an edge safely over the long term, build the necessary sample size, and extract that edge.

In other words, it assumes losses and drawdowns, yet makes it possible to continue trading consistently even during those periods—expanding your sample size and averaging results to bring out the edge.

It is crucial to understand that if your system has a positive expectancy, consistent execution over the long run is what generates profit.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12
Stop counting losing streaks 🧵

No matter how many losses in a row you take, what you need to do does not change.
The number of consecutive losses is irrelevant to your next move—it is information that will only cause you stress and undermine your consistency.
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2/5
There is no way to “escape” a losing streak.

Escaping a losing streak means your next trade results in a win.
But short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness.
We cannot control whether the next trade will be a win or a loss.

In other words, to put it plainly—you cannot intentionally break out of a losing streak.

If you could, it would also mean you could prevent losing streaks altogether, which in turn would mean a 100% win rate.
And of course, that is impossible.
3/5
What you should do during a losing streak is “change nothing and keep following your rules.”

If you have prepared thoroughly with a large sample size in advance and are using a strategy with a statistical edge, then your only job is to keep executing trades according to those rules.
Doing so allows temporary probability swings to average out over the large sample, bringing results back in line with the strategy’s true performance.

The previous trade’s result has nothing to do with the next one—do not let the last outcome influence your next decision.
Once you start doing that, your decisions will be swayed by randomness.

The only thing your next action should be based on is your pre-defined rules with an edge.
The number of consecutive losses is unnecessary information, and carrying it will only erode your trust in the rules, making it harder to act consistently and more difficult to pull the trigger due to fear or doubt.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 11
The ability to execute exactly what you’ve planned is the ultimate skill🧵

On weekends, anyone can look at the charts with a clear head.
The real challenge begins when the market starts moving—when you must carry out your pre-defined plan without being swayed by the price action.
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2/5
A plan is meaningless if you can’t execute it as planned.

As traders, we can analyze calmly and speak with reason when the chart is static.
But once the market is live, emotions like greed and fear emerge, and calm execution becomes much harder.

This stems from a flawed belief—the tendency to place value on individual wins and losses.
And it’s precisely this belief and thought process that makes trading so difficult.

To those outside trading, “executing a plan as planned” might sound easy.
In reality, it is an advanced skill in itself.
3/5
Acquiring this skill requires layered understanding and experience.

For example:

- Understanding short-term randomness
- Transforming the value system from placing worth on immediate wins and losses to valuing a consistent process through probabilistic thinking
- Shifting perspective from short-term to long-term
- Developing the eye to identify entry conditions from an unfolding chart with an unknown outcome
- Preparing thoroughly to believe in your strategy and rules without doubt

Without these, even something as seemingly basic as executing a plan as planned becomes impossible.

Failure to execute is often mistaken for an “emotional problem,” but in reality it’s a skill problem—rooted in a lack of understanding and experience.
Emotions are merely the output of an unchanged value system regarding wins and losses.

Through understanding and experience, your beliefs and thought processes evolve.
Your actions, reinforced through long-term repetition, become increasingly automated—ultimately forming a skill.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 10
Don’t lock in profits too quickly just because "it’s better than losing" 🧵

Even if it eases your anxiety, your success moves farther away.
I’ll explain the mechanism.
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2/5
When a position shows even a small profit, many people rush to take it out of fear of losing it, but this behavior pushes you further from success.

A strategy with an edge only realizes that edge when you follow its rules faithfully.
By entering by the rules, exiting by the rules, and repeating that, the strategy’s win rate and risk-reward are brought out by the law of large numbers.

If you take profits earlier than your rules specify, you impair the reward side of the risk-reward ratio, leaving you with a risk-reward that works against you.
3/5
Looking at the profit in front of you and thinking "I don’t want to lose it" is extremely short-term thinking.

The more you focus on a one-off result right in front of you, the less consistent your behavior becomes.
That’s because short-term outcomes are heavily driven by randomness.
Your actions become synchronized with randomness, and you start prioritizing "what you want to do now" over following the rules of the strategy with an edge that you prepared in advance.

Obviously, this prevents consistent behavior and keeps probability from working.
Read 5 tweets

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