Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 17 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Witkoff: The US and Russia agreed on game-changing security guarantees — U.S. Article Five-style protection.

Russia will have to codify in law that it won’t seize more Ukrainian territory or violate European countries’ sovereignty [except that it did this many times already] 1/
Q: Is Ukraine ceding all of Donbas on the table?

Witkoff: 5 regions have always been the crux of the deal. Russia made some concessions on all 5.

Donetsk is key — that will be discussed Monday with Zelenskyy and European leaders. 2/
Witkoff: President Trump can't agree to any land swap — that’s for the Ukrainians, and they’ve made that clear.

He respects that, which is why we’re moving quickly to Monday’s Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy. 3X
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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 17
[No, Zelenskyy won’t surrender Donbas]

Zelenskyy: The only security guarantee for Ukraine is a strong Ukrainian army.

Russia сan’t take Donetsk region for 12 years. Putin has been unable to do it.

1/
Zelenskyy: We need security to work in practice like Article Five of NATO. And we consider EU accession to be part of security guarantees.

2/
Zelenskyy: We need real negotiations which means they can start where the front line is now.

Territorial issue should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine, United States, Russia. Russia gives no sign that trilateral will happen.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 17
Rubio: The US is not aiming for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

The best way to end this war is with a full peace deal. The Russians as of now have not agreed to that. 1/
Rubio: The Ukrainians are not willing to give up territories, and no one is pushing them to. A peace deal won’t look like that.

But Putin is making demands. And Ukraine is asking for things Russia won’t accept. 2/
Rubio: Russians are already facing severe consequences. No sanctions have been lifted, U.S. support for Ukraine continues.

If no agreement is reached, more sanctions will follow. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
Anne Applebaum: Trump has no cards. Putin sees no reason to deal — he believes he’s winning and can wait Trump out.

Trump vows to end the war but brings no pressure on Moscow. No new sanctions. His deadlines pass without effect. Alaska produced nothing. 1/ Image
Russian TV cheers Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy and Europe, while the Kremlin welcomes eased sanctions and US cuts to Russian-language media.

Each move signals to Putin that Washington won’t use its tools. 2/
The Alaska summit humiliated Washington. A wanted war criminal welcomed on US soil, Trump acted deferential.

Envoy Steve Witkoff misjudged Moscow. Russian reports stressed trade, not peace. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
McFaul: Trump didn’t talk tough. He admired Putin, he was acquiescent. I’ve dealt with Putin, he sees weakness. No cost for invasion makes Trump look weak.

For decades the U.S. was leader of the free world. Now maybe we don’t have that mantle. 1/
McFaul: The President of the United States invited a dictator, an indicted war criminal. He kidnaps children from Ukraine, bombs civilians, kills them. That’s terrorism.

Yet the president met him, invited him here, rolled out a red carpet. You don’t have to do that. 2/
McFaul: Ceasefire and trilateral meeting didn’t happen. No progress, so they canceled the press conference, held a Soviet-style one instead.

I’ve organized such meetings. It’s unusual to skip the plan. I wish Zelenskyy well on Monday. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 16
Merz: If a meeting between Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump can be arranged, it will be more valuable than a ceasefire that could last for weeks without further progress in political and diplomatic efforts. 1/
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the US, not European countries, is playing a decisive role in ending the war in Ukraine.

Merz: Europeans play a role, but the decisive power in this war is the US, using military and sanctions to push Russia to act. 2/
Merz: Russia seems willing to negotiate along the current contact line, not administrative borders, a huge difference.

Putin reportedly agreed to negotiate along the current front line, but these are details to be settled in a peace agreement.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Aug 16
CNN: What’s your read of the Alaska summit outcome? Anything achieved?

Me: Putin got a propaganda win, the U.S. looks weak. He’s destabilized Europe, made no concessions, paid no price. No sanctions enforced.

From Kyiv it looks that Putin’s welcomed without paying any cost. 1/
CNN: Trump said now it's up to Zelenskyy to negotiate peace. Passing the baton?

Me: Yes. He avoids responsibility but leaves us to bear the results

Likely, Putin asks Trump for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk - fortified Ukrainian strongholds. If Ukraine gives them up, Russia can push toward Dnipro
2/
CNN: What’s your read on the front lines—slow Russian progress?

Me: In Donetsk, a small Russian breakthrough of several hundred infantry was stamped out.

Azov says 200 killed, 100 wounded, 20 captured. This looks more like Russian theatrics for the Alaska summit than a real advance
3/
Read 5 tweets

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