My quick take on tomorrow's meetings in Washington.
The problem: After having failed to convince Putin, Trump has lost interest in Ukraine.
The risk is that he a) blames Zelenskyy for the failure, and b) entirely stops supporting Ukraine.
The problem: After having failed to convince Putin, Trump has lost interest in Ukraine.
The risk is that he a) blames Zelenskyy for the failure, and b) entirely stops supporting Ukraine.
Europeans join Zelensky to prevent that he gets ambushed by Trump -- that Trump tells him what he has agreed with Putin and that he must pursue on that path.
Putin has skillfully laid that trap.
Putin has skillfully laid that trap.
What Europeans want to achieve is a) that Trump doesn't look at Ukraine from Putin's perspective (after the meeting with him), and b) doesn't entirely turn against Ukraine, stopping all support, even weapons that Europeans can buy from the US.
Ideally a coalition between Lindsey Graham and the Europeans can push Trump to do what he talked about, sanction Russia harshly. But that seems to be far off as Trump doesn't want to blame Putin for the failure.
This operation is meant to keep the US engaged at least at a minimum level, and friendly towards Ukraine.
But make no mistake: Trump won't play the role that many hoped he would play -- use sticks (sanctions, sanctions threat) to force Putin into a ceasefire and get concessions from him. The moment for that was the Alaska summit. Trump did none of it.
Ukraine and the Europeans are on their own now.
Europeans must finally get serious and take responsibility for changing the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia.
They must not fail; it's existential; a free, peaceful prosperous Europe depends on it.
Europeans must finally get serious and take responsibility for changing the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia.
They must not fail; it's existential; a free, peaceful prosperous Europe depends on it.
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