Today’s Trump–Zelensky White House meet will reveal a clash of two worldviews.
In 1971, Kissinger flipped the Cold War by courting China to box in Moscow.
In 2025, Trump attempts a “Reverse Kissinger”: courting Moscow to box in Beijing.
Old guard vs America-First realpolitik.
In 1971, Kissinger flipped the Cold War by courting China to box in Moscow.
In 2025, Trump attempts a “Reverse Kissinger”: courting Moscow to box in Beijing.
Old guard vs America-First realpolitik.
EU leaders back Zelensky’s call for pressure on Russia:
• Territory back
• Sanctions up
• NATO locked in
It’s the old guard —permanent confrontation, open-ended US aid
Trump sees that as a distraction. His bet: use Russia as a wedge to weaken America’s real rival—China
• Territory back
• Sanctions up
• NATO locked in
It’s the old guard —permanent confrontation, open-ended US aid
Trump sees that as a distraction. His bet: use Russia as a wedge to weaken America’s real rival—China
Meanwhile, Russia-China trade hit $136B in 2025 (+27%).
Moscow sells energy + minerals.
Beijing gives tech + capital.
A sanctions-driven marriage.
Trump’s Alaska play: disrupt that axis by dangling US deals—breaking Russia’s over-reliance on China.
Moscow sells energy + minerals.
Beijing gives tech + capital.
A sanctions-driven marriage.
Trump’s Alaska play: disrupt that axis by dangling US deals—breaking Russia’s over-reliance on China.
This is the flipped script.
1971: Kissinger opens to China against Russia
2025: Trump opens to Russia against China
Classic balance of power & realpolitik: exploit fractures between rivals, even with idealogical differences
I break it down on Fox: foxbusiness.com/fox-news-opini…
1971: Kissinger opens to China against Russia
2025: Trump opens to Russia against China
Classic balance of power & realpolitik: exploit fractures between rivals, even with idealogical differences
I break it down on Fox: foxbusiness.com/fox-news-opini…
The EU–Ukraine camp calls this appeasement.
But their model locks America into Europe’s wars while Beijing expands in Asia, Africa, and tech.
• US LNG exports to Europe: $45B in 2024
• $100B+ already sent to Kyiv
For Trump, that’s overstretch.
For Europe, it’s insurance.
But their model locks America into Europe’s wars while Beijing expands in Asia, Africa, and tech.
• US LNG exports to Europe: $45B in 2024
• $100B+ already sent to Kyiv
For Trump, that’s overstretch.
For Europe, it’s insurance.
Ukraine’s position is grim.
• Battlefield gains stalled
• Population shrinking
• Economy bleeding
62% of Americans want an “endgame.”
Zelensky faces a squeeze: keep maximalist goals—full territory—or risk losing US backing.
Trump’s line: secure peace, refocus on China.
• Battlefield gains stalled
• Population shrinking
• Economy bleeding
62% of Americans want an “endgame.”
Zelensky faces a squeeze: keep maximalist goals—full territory—or risk losing US backing.
Trump’s line: secure peace, refocus on China.
Sanctions—the EU’s weapon of choice—have had mixed results.
They bled Russia
But they also bound Moscow tighter to Beijing
Trump’s shift: keep the stick, but tie relief to real deals—
• Ukraine security guarantees
• Mineral coordination
• Moscow diversifying away from China
They bled Russia
But they also bound Moscow tighter to Beijing
Trump’s shift: keep the stick, but tie relief to real deals—
• Ukraine security guarantees
• Mineral coordination
• Moscow diversifying away from China
This is why today’s meeting matters.
It’s not just Ukraine’s fate.
It’s a clash of paradigms:
Old guard globalists → permanent isolation of Russia.
Trump’s America-First realpolitik → pragmatic deals, shifting alliances, China as the true center of gravity.
It’s not just Ukraine’s fate.
It’s a clash of paradigms:
Old guard globalists → permanent isolation of Russia.
Trump’s America-First realpolitik → pragmatic deals, shifting alliances, China as the true center of gravity.
The gamble:
If Trump cracks the Russia–China axis → America gains leverage in supply chains, energy, and tech—the choke points of 21st-century power.
If not → critics say he legitimizes Putin + undermines allies.
Either way, it’s a pivot moment in US grand strategy.
If Trump cracks the Russia–China axis → America gains leverage in supply chains, energy, and tech—the choke points of 21st-century power.
If not → critics say he legitimizes Putin + undermines allies.
Either way, it’s a pivot moment in US grand strategy.
Headlines will rage today but the bigger story is the tectonic fight: Reverse Kissinger vs old guard consensus.
The choice for America: cling to a European war—or pivot to the China contest.
Check the full free read on my Substack and subscribe: tanviratna.substack.com/p/the-us-russi…
The choice for America: cling to a European war—or pivot to the China contest.
Check the full free read on my Substack and subscribe: tanviratna.substack.com/p/the-us-russi…
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